LinksterAC
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Miss Cleo is telling me it's going to have only 4s & 5s in it. 45,045,045 or 54,054,054 Nah, going with the top one. 54 is too high. -
I have a feeling Sunday will be much stronger than shown in the estimate. And while it's Tuesday afternoon, I don't think I've seen the Sunday estimate change since Monday AM or Sunday late PM.
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When can we expect actuals? I'm really curious about Sunday & Monday. My gut's telling me 3-day is going to get really close to 70M on actuals.
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I dunno. That runtime makes weekday viewing hard. I'm expecting tepid numbers this week, but that it will lead to this being a Saturday/Sunday banger like the LOTR films were way back in the day.
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Based on the way this week has gone (daily underestimates by Asgard & a consistently widening gap with RO dailies), my gut says 68M—maybe even flirting with 70M this weekend. The movie is definitely starting to levitate now.
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Yeah, Fourth of July fireworks don't have crazy fanbases either, but everyone still goes & watches them. There's something to be said for something that has broad warm (not raging hot) appeal.
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Unless you're inclined, as I am, to think that unmet weekend demand moves to the next weekend rather than later in the week. Obviously offset by the holidays--but I don't think completely.
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That Thursday number is ridic. Still can’t project this one. It’s definitely distancing itself from RO now.
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How do you figure?
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20.6 is extremely strong & I think this movie is starting to distance itself from Rogue 1. Thinking it lands at around 17.5-18 today. (Just my guess) I feel like this weekend will be bigger than last.
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Aw Pele. Agora eu estou muito triste. 😔 @ZattMurdock I hope an interesting BO softens the blow.
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Lots of action on this thread since I went to bed last night! 20.5 is an extremely strong number, & this really may be where A2 & RO finally part ways for good. The weekend is shaping up to be a very interesting one.
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Anything in the range set out by you two (19.5 to 21) & we’re starting to see a pattern of differentiation from RO.
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24.13. Strong number. Curious to see how the numbers look tomorrow to see if it’s finally building some daily distance with RO.
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Thanks. Would love to understand the methodology & the results.
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Can you please provide references on the statistics? Are they somewhere on this board?
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Are you absolutely sure that's not true of Cinemascore too? Have we done the stats? This points to what I asked about earlier. Has anyone done the math to establish a statistical relationship between Cinemascore & legs?
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Well, I wonder if the size of the opening weekend isn't a better predictor of legs than the Cinemascore is?
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Has anyone done any kind of statistical analysis relating Cinemascore grades to legs. What's the R-score? If we don't have one, how well can we use Cinemascore to project legs? Not necessarily saying Avatar 2 will have amazing legs--just trying to understand the predictive power of Cinemascore.
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I have a feeling it's going to start distancing itself from R1 this week. But we shall see.
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I'll be watching this week closely just for that.
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Great chart! Maybe it's because of the winter weather & the smaller first day, but this just makes me feel like A2 is going to out-leg R1 by a country mile.
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Aren’t its legs already better? Weekend to weekend drop I mean.
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Fantastic weekend at ~95M. One wonders what it would have looked like with better placed holidays & better weather. 110 to 115? If so, that’s an unreal hold. Not that 95M isn’t.
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Great number for Avatar as the movie nestles itself deeper into the "I have no idea where the f*** this is going" cocoon. Which, come to think of it, is exactly where I thought we would be. I thought even waiting for Boxing Day wouldn't be long enough to allow us to confidently project its run. Just enjoying each day as it passes at this point.
