Daxtreme

~16M monday So the stories were true Jesus Christ, I know it's a holiday and all but... Rogue One's 1st monday was 17.6M Rogue One's 3rd monday is 15.9M This calendar year has proven to be VERY interesting indeed

Even with a 16M monday... 8M Tuesday would be 50% drop The best drop in 2011 in the top 10 was 45.5%, but none of those movies were displaying numbers like R1. 55% is the most likely scenario Then again, Tuesdays are much different nowadays than they were in 2011, so anything can happen Wednesday drop though... Brace yourselves

8M today? I don't see it. Or... wait, they said Rogue One made 16M monday? Estimates are currently 14.8M, if that holds it's a pretty damn solid hold

It may seem like Paramount had a shitty year, but last year they had an even shittier year

If Disney ever announce movies based on The Old Republic era.... ...

Alright, a few messages I've seen on reddit prompted me to try this, so I crunched some numbers and here is what I came up with concerning Rogue One's late legs, projected final gross and so on. First of all, I needed weekly drops so I projected Rogue One's daily numbers for this week. I simply considered that Rogue One would drop 73% compared to last week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It's a very reasonable week-to-week drop as good comps Sherlock Holmes' AND Mission Impossible's drops in 2011 (top 2 at the time) were both -65%, -70%, and -70% ---- worth noting that Girl With the Dragon Tattoo's drops were -55%, -55%, and -60%, however Alvin's were -70%, -80%, -80% and Tintin -63%, -72%, -75% ---- so all in all, I think -73% all week is a pretty good middle ground and a good start for a projection. Anyway -- Tuesday --> 22.5 * 0.27 = 6.1M Wednesday --> 18 * 0.27 = 4.9M Thursday --> 16.7 * 0.27 = 4.5M total = 15.5M Add that to this 4-day week-end (64.35M) and weekly total is 79.9M Current Dom total with projection, on Jan 5 = 455.3M Now, I simply apply a 50% weekly drop every single week to Rogue One for 8 weeks 39.9 20 10 5 2.5 1.25 0.625 0.31 = 79.5M Add that to current Dom total and you end up with 535M Now here is why I think this is the floor for Rogue One... First of all, 50% weekly drops won't happen because of weeks like MLK with epic holds. Second, I ran the same test with TFA, Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and Alvin and the Chipmunks (2011) just to see what happens if you apply a 50% week-to-week drop for the remainder of their runs at the same point in time as Rogue One is right now, since they are good comps (TFA is more for fun because Star Wars ) Here is what happened: The Force Awakens - 770.38M Dom total (lol) on Jan 7 (118.4M weekly gross at ~same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops: 59.2 29.6 14.8 7.4 3.7 1.85 1 0.5 = 888.5M projected total (vs 936.6M actual final total, which is 5% higher than projected) Sherlock Holmes 2 - 143.36M Dom total on Jan 5 (33.34M weekly gross at same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops: 16.7 8.3 4.2 2.1 1 0.5 0.25 0.1 = 176.5M projected total (vs 186.85M actual final total, which is 6% higher than projected) Same maths with MI:Ghost Protocol gives a projected total of 196.35M (vs 209M actual final total, which is 6.4% higher than projected) Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked gives a projected total of 127.5M (vs 133M actual final total, which is 4% higher than projected) Pretty much what that means is that, Final gross of all these movies is 4-6% higher than applying a very simple 50% drops to their weekly gross coming out of the holidays. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SO! ...the lesson here is that Rogue One's final domestic take has a floor of 535M Domestic, with potential to reach in the ballpark of $570M, which is about 6% higher than 535M I don't see it going much higher than that. That would mean it has better late legs than TFA, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible:GP, and Alvin and the Chipmunks. Alvin, not so hard to believe, the others, not so much... That's it. For those if you who already knew this, well, this post wasn't aimed at you It's aimed at those other folks out there who genuinely have no idea what range late legs can give a movie. Thanks for watch, hope you liked kino, pls recommend

I like Fellowship of the Ring better It didn't win 11 oscars though btw Return of the King won 11 oscars, tied with Titanic and Ben-Hur, not 12

And in the US, adjusted for inflation, the top-grossing Harry Potter movie out of all of them sits just above the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie (excluding Clone Wars and assuming Rogue One ends up with >$500M)

Quite a bummer that Rogue One had the 2nd biggest drop in the top 25, but I guess when you are grossing those kind of numbers, it's inevitable. Still, good number for Sunday, let's see if those estimates hold O/U 50M for the 3-day with the actuals? Under is like, 95% certain, but who knows

Still on course for ~$550M ... Amazing!

You know, PPZ you have been asking why we geek over these numbers, in my case at least I know that nobody in my personal circle understands why I follow box office actively, and it would be kinda pointless to explain why I like following it, because I know they would nod and go "oh yeah, that's nice" while thinking "what is wrong with him". I have no stakes in it so therefore it shouldn't interest me right? Well, I've always liked numbers, and I like movies so... it's the best combination possible! Cheering for a sports team is the best and only comparison I've seen that "makes sense" to people

IMDb's top 10 most popular movies of 2016 doesn't include Rogue One. IMDb's top 10 most anticipated movies of 2017 doesn't include Star Wars Episode VIII. I mean... I don't care what your metric is, IMDb, but it's officially wrong.

Absolutely impossible right now because of the friday number

Well, at least I was right on it not staying flat, but... This R1 number sucks, I'm out

Actual number -- 49M

Indeed -- "THOR, ANY WORD FROM ASGARD?" Thor: "The gates of hel are filled with the screams of his victims" "..."

16.7M? lol I'm not buying those numbers. This is, after all, Deadline on an early projection

Rogue One is not staying flat today The absolute worst case scenario is an Alvin Chipmunk increase (worst of 2011), 8%, and that puts Rogue One at 18M But with R1's word of mouth... I just don't see that happening.

You know, earlier I was comparing Rogue One with similar openings (TDK, Hunger Games, Hunger Games 2) but... Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Opening Weekend: $155,081,681 14-day total -- $375,378,705 Captain America: Civil War Opening Weekend: $179,139,142 14-day total -- $314,276,153 $24M lower opening... $61M ahead after only 14 days ...

So Haley Bennett is #9 top stars of 2016 @CJohn Margot Robbie is #1, in case anyone is lazy enough not to click on the link

Cue --

Great post Tele, as usual your knowledge of the insides of the system is very insightful Wow, didn't know that. I imagine that doesn't include Netflix? I mean, I pay $9 a month for Netflix, but they don't care if I'm watching Star Wars or Narcos or whatever, I imagine they give a fixed amount as rental for the streaming rights?