George Parr
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Posts posted by George Parr
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3 minutes ago, Eastwood47 said:
I think the only area that makes the flat business on Tuesday appear note worthy is the Monday drop matched the series low of 58%. TFA only dropped 33.8% while Rogue One dropped 53.3%. While Rogue One was closer on the Monday drop, that translated to a near even performance for Tuesday only dropping 0.1%. So there are some distinctions for TLJ.
That isn't really something out of the ordinary though, it's just how the schedule works.
Last year, movies mostly dropped in the high 40s, with some in the low 50s, lining right up with what happened in 2011, when the schedule was the same.
The year before, movies dropped mostly in the 30% range, with some in the 20s and a few in the low 40s, just like in 2009, when the schedule was the same.
This year, movies behaved just like they did in 2006. The top 7 of this year dropped 58, 71, 66, 44, 62, 46 and 61%, back then they dropped 59, 69, 58, 50, 64, 65 and 58%.
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2 minutes ago, AndyK said:
Shouldn't this have got like a 25% boost for cheap Tuesdays?
Not necessarily. Neither TFA nor Rogue One got a boost, dropping 7% and 0.1% each.
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3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:
It's going to drop today by about 12-17% and then it should bump up by about 10% on Thursday but the Tuesday number might indicate that the wom on this isn't going to be as strong as other sW films before it, Or am I just reading too much into it?
It's certainly a possible scenario. I mean, TFA had a similar drop on Tuesday and then increased on Wednesday, but that doesn't seem to be a fitting comparison for this movie.
I guess it is still a bit too early to talk about where the legs are heading, but it certainly isn't exceeding expectations so far.
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Mhm, that's not particularly good. I mean, TFA dropped on Tuesday, and Rogue One went down a tiny bit as well, but still, a slight increase for Tuesday would have been better.
It's not completely out of line of what happened in the past, but that was without discount Tuesday being what it is today.
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31 minutes ago, hw64 said:
DOS was actually release earlier in December than TLJ, and hence there were even less people on holiday for its first Mon-Thu than for TLJ. Furthermore, Christmas day fell in DOS's 2nd full week, the same as for TLJ (on the Wednesday instead of the Monday), and so, much like TLJ, most people were on holiday for its second and third full box office weeks. Despite TLJ having a similar setup in the weekdays to DOS, it's highly unlikely that TLJ's 3rd Mon-Thu run is going to equal its 1st Mon-Thu run in total gross like DOS's 3rd Mon-Thu did.
This is just one example of a point on TLJ's run where it's going to fall significantly behind DOS. To achieve the same multiplier, it's going to need to make gains on DOS in other parts of its run. It's not impossible, but I don't find it likely.
Again, that doesn't matter. What matters is the specific schedule a movie is running on. The only reason why DOS even got mentioned, is because it shows that a huge monday drop doesn't mean that the multiplier can't still be in the 3.5 range. That's it, the rest has nothing to do with DOS.
Past movies have shown that this kind of schedule sees the drop in the first weekdays that TLJ is currently having. The 2nd weekend drops big due to christmas eve on Sunday, followed by much better weekdays in the second week. The new years weekend has generally come in ahead of the christmas weekend, with a monday that acts like a holiday as well. Following weekends have seen drops in the 30% range, the first post-holiday one due to Sunday not being hurt, the next one due to the MLK-holiday.
The schedule does allow for TLJ to come out of the holidays with 600m+, while doing identical numbers to TFA during those last days of the holidays / first days beyond that. That doesn't mean that it will definately do so, or hit the 770m required for a 3.5 multiplier, but it is very much something that historic precedent would account for.
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32 minutes ago, James said:
Was the schedule that different from TFA? That is a horrible drop. The weekend was only 20% down from TFA, but the Monday is almost 50% down? Was TFA's first Monday an international holiday?
Yes, the schedule is drastically different, though no, it wasn't a holiday.
TFA had christmas eve fall on Thursday, so in many places christmas holidays had already started by Monday. This time around christmas eve falls on Sunday, which means that many places have the whole or much of the week go on as usual, with the holidays only starting with christmas itself.
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15 minutes ago, hw64 said:
Yes, it does matter. As an example, DOS's 3rd set of weekdays (Mon-Thu) were about the same size as its first set of weekdays. Good luck seeing $20m grosses in 2 weeks. Not going to happen with such high figures.
No, it doesn't matter. The point was about the multiplier, not whether TLJ would behave 100% the same as DOS did. A different schedule leads to a different behaviour, but all christmas schedules have one thing in common: there is one period where they really excel compared to other schedules. A sizeable drop on some days isn't a bad sign if that kind of drop is completely normal for that kind of schedule.
What matters is what the historical behaviour of a schedule suggests, and how closely a movie is following it. So far, TLJ is following it to the letter. If TLJ continues that path, it would actually come out of the holidays with very similar days as TFA, just quite a bit behind.
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5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
Its not 100% safe but i think it is. I have already seen predictions of 80-90mil for Christmas weekend for this and thats low imo, especially when IMO this will fall off a cliff after New Year.
Why would it fall off a cliff after new year?
Looking at examples from the past, this schedule actually leads to pretty small drops right afterwards. Last time around, most movies dropped in the high 30s to low 40s range from new years weekend to the one after. Following that is MLK-day, so yet another soft drop due to a holiday.
This particular schedule is known for increasing weekdays between christmas and new year, plus a new years weekend that increases over the christmas one. Followed by relatively soft drops in the weekends afterwards. Now, things could be a bit different, but there is little reason to assume that something drastically different is going to happen this time around.
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2 minutes ago, hw64 said:
DOS didn't make $220m in its opening weekend.
Does it matter?
TFA made 248m and still ended up with the biggest multiplier of all 100m+ releases.
People need to stop assuming that big numbers automatically mean that the behaviour changes drastically compared to other movies that followed a similar schedule or were in a similar situation. While there is always a bit of wiggle room, you can't just ignore general trends connected to specific schedules. The Sunday and Monday drop we have seen from TLJ are right in line with the historic precedents of its schedule.
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3 minutes ago, Goffe said:
You’re missing the fact that a 7 only translates to just “decent” because people give out way more 10s than they do 1s, which goes back to my point of “fans” far outweighting “trolls”. Ratings are not split in half, you’re right, but they are only distorted that way because people are way more generous with their ratings than they are not.
Also, the chances of a movie being a 10 is just as hard, if not harder. There are far more bad than good out there.
No, I'm not missing that at all. Most movies aren't rated at a 10, so that isn't the guideline that defines how the ratings are set up. Most movies end up in the okay/decent/solid range. All of that is set up by how people formed their 10 point range, and that doesn't happen by taking 10 point movies and going from there, it generally comes from people taking a scale that they are used to and applying it to movies. If all the ratings that you come into contact with during your life are based on 6/7 being the "barely made it" to "decent" range, and that's what seems to be the norm, then it is very likely you are going to apply this to movies as well. But that leaves the entire range below that relatively undefined.
That's not what this is about. It's about the scale itself, not the movies. If you only have three good ratings, then it is a short way to go to ten. But if a 5 is already bad, then there are plenty of steps required to come in at 1, yet these steps hardly ever exist.
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34 minutes ago, Goffe said:
It has always struck me as odd people bringing the amount of 1s but never the 10s to discredit online ratings for fanboy movies. I just looked up TLJ voting distribution and 22% voted it a 10 and only 5% voted it a 1 (just a 8k out of 150k). Who's exactly rigging the average? The people who liked it or the ones who disliked it?
Not that IMDB means anything as far as real life wom is concerned.
That's a bit misleading though, because the ratings aren't really split in half. For 1/10 and 10/10 to be equally one-sided, the average would need to be between 5 and 6, yet for most people that isn't the case. When a 7/10 is basically solid or decent, then there is lot less ground to get to 10 than there is to get to 1. You basically have five to six numbers which represent "bad", while only up to three that represent "good". Of course you are getting more 10s that way than you are getting 1s.
The odds of a movie truly being a 1/10 for someone are slim to say the least. That's basically "I rather cut out my eyes than watch this thing" territory. Yet there are often far more 1s than there are 2s, 3s or 4s. That makes giving a 1 sound more like giving the worst possible rating for the sake of giving the worst possible rating.
Though I guess there are quite a few people who have rather black and white views, where something must be either the greatest thing ever or worst thing they could think of. There isn't really a rational explanation for that.
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6 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:
Haha yes, that would be amazing! I don’t think a trilogy has ever occupied the top 3 slots though the OT came close - ET came out and ruined some of the party in 82 and I can’t recall where Raiders landed in 81.
Jaws also got in the way. ANH and ESB sat at 1st and 3rd up until Raiders went past Empire in 1982.
In 1984, there was ANH at 2, ROTJ at 4 and ESB at 6. ROTJ passed Jaws in 1985, but before that happened Ghostbusters got past ESB, so the three movies sat at 2nd, 3rd and 7th.
There aren't really any highly successful sequels before ESB, at least none that I can think of, so that's probably the best a trilogy has fared so far.
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2 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Episode IX will decrease because of spinoffs and such
I wouldn't be so sure about that one. If the Han Solo movie stays were it is, it will be 1 1/2 years between it and IX, while it follows right on the footsteps of TLJ. This means there is a whole lot of room where no big Star Wars news will come out, giving it more air than Rogue One, TLJ or Solo will have.
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3 minutes ago, UserHN said:
I think the best case scenario for TLJ is $1.6 billion. Realistic number is $1.4 billion. So under.
At this point I don't think 1.4b is the realistic number, more like 1.5b.
Topping JW would be very tough though. Would require very good holds internationally and a domestical total that tops 800m, and not just by 4-5m either. Which means it would need a similar multiplier domestically as TFA had.
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Interestingly enough, the 220m are just a tad below the opening week of Rogue One (~222m)
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27 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
Overseas opening is down about 18% From TFA.
Its fine, means 700 is the target overseas
While I see 700-800m as the likely range, I don't really know how you get from being down 18% to 700m. TFA finished with over 1.1b internationally. TLJ would need to fall around 30% to fall below 800m, and a whole lot more to get down to 700m.
24 minutes ago, Elessar said:Based on last time the dates matched, i don't think so. Who knows, though, Star Wars saturates the market such that spillover is a factor....
I'm not sure if those comparisons match up though. If you look at TFA and Avatar, both having the same schedule, both dropped a lot less than basically all the other movies on the first Sunday. The Hobbit also dropped less than all the movies around it. So while the last year that had the same schedule as this year suggests pretty big drops, it could very well be that it doesn't affect a big blockbuster in the same way.
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22 minutes ago, Giesi said:
so I would say 1,650-1,675M admissions for Ep8, bigger drop than I expected (based on the prequel trilogy) but the total is gonna be bigger than Ep2 and Ep3, easily
The fact that it is opening lower than any of the prequels seemed curious to me as well, but I think this might actually have something to do with something that goes beyond the movie itself. Looking at the alltime leaders in openings, there is a ton of stuff that opened in the 2000s, especially the early part of the decade, but since then there have only been a handful truly big ones. The one truly big difference has been the number of theaters in which the movies started. There used to be 1000-1300 theaters for the big ones, now its in the 800 range.
Now, theaters may have become bigger, so the number of screens may not be all that different, but it could very well be that you simply cannot reach the same audience anymore. Most huge cinemas are focused in the big cities, while the cinemas that got lost are probably the smaller ones, which in many cases would have been in smaller cities and towns. Losing cinemas in a big city doesn't have as much of an effect, because there are still plenty of other ones, but if small towns lose their only cinema, people have to travel more to see movies. It doesn't prevent huge openings, but maybe it takes away a few 100k here and there. Hence starts not matching what they made in the early parts of the last decade.
TLJ was very likely to drop from TFA anyway, but maybe with 1000+ theaters it could have opened to the same numbers as ROTS. And who knows, maybe TFA could have broken the record if it had played in more theaters as well.
Ticket prices may be another reason. They are reaching more and more absurd levels every year. I mean, paying €17+ for a movie goes beyond anything that is reasonable.
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1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:
TLJ cannot re-create the epic buzz that TFA could. A Star Wars movie seems to dilute the franchise a bit. I say this, because a 20% drop is significant.
Still, we are talking huge numbers here.
Actually, that is a completely normal drop, especially when coming from truly epic numbers. The only times you see something completely different is if the market has exploded in the meantime, exchange rates are drastically different, or if the movie that came before wasn't really huge but created a fanbase that expanded in the meantime (e.g. POTC).
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Looks like FjG3 will end up coming ahead in terms of admissions, as TLJ drops in the 3rd trend:
#1 TLJ 1.625m
#2 Coco 105k
#3 Ferdinand 100k
#4 Paddington 2 77.5k
#5 Murder on the Orient Express 57.5k
#6 FjG3 50k
#7 Daddy's Home 2 40k
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4 minutes ago, Noctis said:
Can someone explain something to me, please? It's always confused me.
HBP did $302m in 2009. DH1 did $296m in 2010. Yet when you adjust it to 2017 prices, HBP is at $363m and DH1 at $330m. How is the gap so massive?
The average price BOM uses for 2009 was $7.50, while it was at $7.89 in 2010. That would increase the gap quite a bit when adjusted to today's average. Not sure if they always take quarterly price-updates into account, but if yes, HP6 came out in summer, while HP7 came in November, putting an even bigger difference between the two.
Beyond that, BOM is flat out bad when it comes to adjusting numbers.
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Sounds like it is neck-and-neck with TFA on Sunday as well. Very impressive opening. Maybe Yo-Kai Watch having slipped a lot in the recent past does help a bit, even if Japan is one of the markets where you can have multiple huge openings at the same time.
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1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:
Lol well let’s see what the final Sat figure is but still 63+ is a good figure. It’s not down much from TFA, all things considered. Still I was hoping for 65, maybe Deadline jumped the gun.
Well, yesterday their estimates at that time were a few millions too low as well, so there is some hope
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3 minutes ago, Talkie said:
I loved TLJ myself. But even though I'm a day-one fan, I don't think that the current lot of online Star Wars fanatics would count me among their number.
I don't think that there really is such a thing as a coherent group of online Star Wars fanatics. The fanbase is way too large, even the obviously much smaller hardcore base, for it to be clearly defined group.
Even when just talking about general groups, which doesn't take individual opinions into account, you have the purists ("everything but the OT sucks!"), the legacy fans ("the old EU was soo much better than this new stuff!"), the ones who hate the prequels but like the new ones ("practical effects, not this CGI stuff!"), and the ones who like all movies to varying degrees. None of them are clearly dominating the fanbase, at least not when it comes to the noise they make online.
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46 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:
Why must those of us who didn't like it be considered cynical and irrational fanboys? Are we just supposed to love something because we are told to? I'm a huge Star Wars fan and I have defended the prequels for 18 years. No one said anyone was irrational when they disliked the prequels and now that there is a Star Wars film that has pissed off some of its fans, people are calling us irrational fanboys? That's really unfair.
I didn't like the film for many reasons, me being an irrational fanboy isn't one of them. This didn't feel like the Star Wars I knew and it certainly wasn't the Star Wars I wanted it to be. That's why I didn't care for it.
Are you going to see it again (if you haven't already)?
I have heard from quite a few people who liked it much more the second time around. Maybe you'd also like it more after another go.
Not that there is anything wrong with disliking it, I'm just asking because additional viewings seem to have helped some people's opinions become more positive
I've seen it once so far, and I don't really know what to think about it yet. To me, there is a lot to like, some things to dislike, and it certainly is very different from all the other SW movies.
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Tuesday#s TLJ 20.25M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
True, there is more of an increase this year, though to be fair, 2016 got dragged down by BvS in that regard.
But that's just a general view. This is the holiday period, we don't really know whether big openers act the same during that time, we have way too few examples to judge that. When it comes to the Tuesday increases, you can't forget that the Monday drops for those movies were far bigger as well. It had the best drop, with 68%, the other three dropped between 72-75%. TLJ now dropped just 58% on Monday. That makes quite the difference.
Just as an example, lets assume that TLJ had dropped 70% on Monday as well, that would have put it at 15.3m or so. A 20m Tuesday would be around a 33% jump for that. So one reason why Tuesday isn't increasing the way it normally does, might be that Monday is simply bigger than it normally would be for such an opener.