George Parr
-
Posts
1,878 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by George Parr
-
-
Just now, FantasticBeasts said:
And yet this changes nothing of what i said.
It is a bad number for a blockbuster of any type.
And to be honest no franchise has really history in China so....
The difference being that a new franchise (or a new story that doesn't depend on old movies of a franchise, like Nolan's Batman for example) is far easier to understand for audiences than if they suddenly start with the 7th or 8th movie of a series that tells one heavily connected story. Something that is even more true when you consider that the origins of the story are done in a way that really doesn't appeal to China's audience today.
Which doesn't change that SW does indeed only deliver 3rd rate numbers in China at best.
-
2
-
-
The next set of weekdays might actually play out a bit better than last year due to more states still being on holiday. The effect probably won't be that much bigger due to the states with the biggest populations not having all that much of a different holiday schedule, but it still might be noticeable.
The following states have holiday throughout the entire first week of January (using German names because I am lazy
):
BW, Bayern, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, Niedersachsen, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein, Thüringen, Saarland
Hessen even has another week of holidays after that
MV+Sachsen-Anhalt have Monday+Tuesday off, Berlin+Brandenburg+Sachsen, Monday off
So all 16 states are on holiday on Monday, 13 on Tuesday and 11 the rest of the week
In comparison, 2016:
BW, Bayern, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, Niedersachsen, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein
Berlin and Brandenburg Monday+Tuesday off, MV+Sachsen+Sachsen-Anhalt Monday off, Thüringen+Saarland holidays over
14 states had holidays still running on Monday, 11 states had holidays on Tuesday, and 9 states had holidays the rest of the week
-
2
-
-
7 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Pretty sad, actually. WOM is mixed at best.
What has coming in a bit above or below an estimate have to do with WOM?
All it really says is that people got their calculations from earlier in the day a bit wrong (and not that much anyway). There weren't any more or less people going to the theater because of that earlier number, nor does the audience behaviour over the day depend on WOM.
I mean, Sunday came in 3m above the estimates. That didn't suddenly turn the WOM into being epic beyond belief.
-
4 minutes ago, REC said:
Makes the Thor series a real anomaly doesn't it? Considering how each new movie grew the earnings by quite a bit.
Well, there are some other examples of rising movies, and some of the franchises I mentioned already rose from part 1 to 2, both in terms of openings and totals, but I was talking more about franchises that had fully developed and reached their peak. It doesn't apply so much to franchises that are a bit smaller in size. Something like Thor saw more of a gradual increase, maybe it has reached its peak now, maybe it can still grow a bit, but it is definately different from something that saw a huge jump with one of the movies (e.g. Dark Knight or POTC).
It's once you reach huge openings and giant totals that it is getting tough to keep the pace. Or if the franchise is rather limited in what it could possibly reach (Jason Bourne, National Treasure, Night at the Museum, that kind of stuff).
-
1
-
-
24 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:
The problem here is that people continue saying that TLJ was never supposed to compete with TFa when it actually did so OW. What was even the drop? Less than 10%?
That's the norm. If there is one thing a sequel has a chance of competing with, it is generally the opening. That doesn't mean it can follow that up for the rest of the run.
Lost World beat Jurassic Park's opening 72m to 47m, but lost when it comes to the total 229m to 357m. Age of Ultron was somewhat close the The Avengers when it came to the opening (191m to 207m) but was much further away for the total (459m to 623m).
Other examples:
Dark Knight to Dark Knight Rises: OW 158m -> 160m ; total: 533 -> 448m
Spiderman 1,2 and 3: OW 115m -> 88m (a bit misleading due to Thursday start) -> 151m ; total: 404m -> 377m -> 337m
POTC 2 and 3: OW 136m -> 115m (identical 4-day total though) ; total: 423 -> 309m
Iron Man 1 and 2: OW 99m -> 128m ; total: 318m -> 312m
The more fanboy-driven a movie is, the better its chance to keep the openings big, even if the total falls. After all, fans will rush out to see the latest addition to the franchise, so you can mostly count on not losing them for the next opening either. The odds of having angered the fanbase to the extend that a large part won't show up for the next opening, while at the same time having pleased the general audience to the extend that they come back, thus hurting the opening more than the legs, are rather slim after all.
-
3
-
-
24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
No. It should be clear by now that the 2006 movies cant be used as a comparison for Last Jedi. My post was just an answer to another poster who used the 2006 calendar.
Actually, I think 2006 comparisons still work decently enough. You just need to look at the whole picture, not every tiny mark, as some details have changed since then. It's not like there is one clearly defined number when you look at the past. Generally there is a range. A range that doesn't always fit to 100% when a movie is much bigger than what was around back then.
The first Monday was right in line with what happened back then. Tuesday and Wednesday are a bit out of whack due to the nature of discount tuesday now existing. There is a modest Thursday increase, Friday and Saturday increases that were right in line with what happened back then, before the Sunday decrease was a lot better than what would have been normal, which is followed by the Monday increase being lower as well. A Tuesday increase wasn't the norm, but it definately occured, and is obviously more likely this year than it was in 2006. In broader terms, the movie is clearly up over the weekdays of the week before, which matches the precedent.
That it can't quite match the raises smaller movies get isn't unusual either. Rogue One dropped over 20% in its third weekend, while most movies around it were increasing slightly. And TFA dropped ~20% in its second set of weekdays while almost everything around it that wasn't a new release increased or stayed mostly flat. It also dropped worse on the 2nd and 3rd weekend than anythin around it. While large numbers don't break the trend entirely, they often can't follow the more extreme movements of small or mid-sized movies.
TLJ will probably see some decrease in its third weekend while much around it might increase, but the effect of the schedule is still in play. It just can't quite counter the natural progression when it comes to such a size. It couldn't even do that for TFA, which exceeded expectations for most of the holidays.
-
Mark G. expects a slight increase for TLJ to ~750k this weekend, while everything but PP3 goes up by quite a big (granted, that's easier to do with lower numbers). But more importantly, the chart lists TLJ with 4.275m if that would happen. Subtract the 750k and compare it to the number after last weekend (~2.8m) and the current weekdays would be around 700k or so. Obviously no comparison to the almost 1.3m TFA had during its second set of weekdays, but then again, that movie didn't have the 25th among those days, which is still a weak box office day. If I'm not mistaken, Rogue One had 625k or so during the weekdays, but that was also without the disadvantage of the 25th.
I'm really not sure if the 6.5m he expects as final total is all that likely. Even if this weekend would end up like this, TLJ would still be slightly behind AOTC and ROTS at the same time of their runs. The following weekdays could move it past those two, but still, the difference would be rather slim, and the holidays would be over. With those two only reaching 5.8m and 5.6m respectively, 6.5m might be a bit too high.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
So last week we were thinking 75-80 for Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Now we are begging for 60 and that requires 18% increase today. Bummer.
To me, that was always aiming way too high anyway, but I didn't want to rule it out due to Star Wars occasionally dropping crazy numbers out of the blue. With the raises that have been standard for this particular schedule, last week would have needed to be much higher to get to 35m+ for Monday, much less approach 40m. It's only when you see Rogue One doing 32m on Monday that you think "this should be able to beat that number".
What made the lower end sound a bit more likely was the surprisingly good Sunday drop. -40% was not what the past had ever hinted at. So regular raises for Monday could have led to 35m+. But at the same time, the very reason why the Sunday worked better than expected may be the reason why the Monday isn't doing the same. Sometimes you get lucky, and a better drop than usual gets followed by a normal or even better increase, but other times the better drop undercuts the raise for the next day.
The latter would also kind of explain the lack of discount Tuesday effect, not only for TLJ but for TFA and Rogue One as well. If you look at all the big starts this year, they all dropped big time on Monday, then rose on Tuesday, but not nearly to the same extend to everything around it. Now, TLJ had a much better monday drop than all those starts, because there already was a small holiday effect in play, followed by a small decrease on Tuesday, alongside muted increases for everything else. The behaviour was pretty much the same, instead of dropping 70% on Monday and getting a 20-30% increase on Tuesday (20-40 percentage points behind older/smaller movies), you get a lower Monday drop, followed by little change on Tuesday (20-40 percentage points behind older/smaller movies). The whole scale simply shifted downwards because Monday already was inflated.
-
1 minute ago, wildphantom said:
Hell, TFA was the most attended movie since ET wasn’t it? Who in their right mind seriously thought TLJ could even approach that?
I'd say since Titanic
-
4 minutes ago, bamajagala said:
I agree. although RO only dropped 34-35%, so is it following more of a RO pattern or 2006?
If 29.178 is accurate for Saturday, that's a good number and spot on for RTH
That's purely an effect of the schedule. If you look at all the movies that ran at the same time as Rogue One, most of them dropped in the mid 30s range. And while that isn't true to quite the same extend for the last time the schedule was like in 2016 (2011), the drops were still mostly in the 30 to low 40% range.
In comparison, 2006 was more or less 50-60% across the board, with the exceptions being christmas themed movies.
The drops are simply quite a bit bigger when christmas eve falls on Sunday then they are when it falls on Saturday.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Brainbug said:
I know Japan is all about crazy legs, but could their be some frontloading even there because SW is a brand with a fanbase that would rush out OW? Or could this be a sign that WOM isnt that good?
I don't think it has to do with either of those two.
TFA 2nd weekend estimate (can't find any actuals posted by Corpse) was 0.726b, that's down a bit over 40%. It then rose on the third one. The other blockbuster on that weekend - Yo-Kay Watch - even dropped a bit more.
Corpse commented back then that it generally isn't a strong weekend, as holidays start afterwards. That time weekend was the 26th/27th though, now it's 23rd/24th, so I don't know if that makes any difference.
-
1
-
-
That doesn't sound all too different from what TFA did on the second weekend, though that one saw the Emperor's holiday fall during the week, not on Saturday.
-
2nd trend is up, with some minor changes:
#1 SW8 750k
#2 Jumanji 210k
#3 PP3 200k
#4 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 200k
#5 Ferdinand 65k
#6 Paddington 2 55k
#7 Coco 55k
#8 Murder on the Orient Express 25k
#9 FjG3 30k
-
1
-
-
Well, that pretty much destroys the idea of using any 2006 jumps for TLJ
The only movie that got remotely close to such a Friday increase was Pursuit of Happyness.
-
3 hours ago, Taruseth said:
That definitely looks better.
Do any of you know how many admissions Rogue One and The Force Awakens (or any other big Christmas Blockbuster) sold on Christmas eve.
The nearest Cinema is open Sunday morning and has sold 156 ads. till now compared to 581 on the 23rd (75% drop)
So a weekend (to get to 750K) could look like:
185k + 250k + 260k + 55k ?
Haven't found anything about specific daily numbers for christmas eve, but Rogue One had 450k for the weekend, with 150k coming from Thursday. Going from there, one can assume that Friday probably wasn't lower than that, probably a bit higher even, so the 24th and 25th made at best 1/3 of the weekend total, and likely quite a bit less. If I had to guess, I'd say christmas eve would have 30-50k at the most, with the lower end being more likely.
-
1
-
-
14 minutes ago, hw64 said:
A good argument. I've changed my mind now.
In all seriousness, it's quite literally impossible to definitively prove that the RT score has been forged. Even if people "admit" to botting the score, they could quite easily be simply lying, and they could quite easily be Star Wars fans who want to discredit the RT score posing as supposed "botters". And even if you assume they are legitimate, there's no way to know the extent to which they've influenced the score - their contribution could be irrelevant compared to the legitimate people that are rating The Last Jedi. It's nowhere near proof enough.The only way to prove beyond all doubt that the RT score is forged would be if Rotten Tomatoes themselves came out and said there's been widespread botting of The Last Jedi's rating, which is the sole cause of the audience score being so low. In actuality, they've done the exact opposite: Rotten Tomatoes Says Its 55% 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi' Audience Score Is Authentic
Rotten Tomatoes stating something doesnt make it the truth. Of course they wouldn't admit to their ratings being horribly flawed.
Seriously, it's not that hard of a concept.
On the on hand, you have unscientific online-polls that can easily be manipulated and already have been manipulated in the past. You have people admitting to it, both publically and on stuff like reddit, you have obviously fake reviews that repeat themself, and you have reviews that appeared underneath wrong movies, which simply doesn't happen when people do it.
On the other hand, you have one legitimate pollster after another come up with virtually the same results, about 90% positive reactions.
Mhm, I wonder who to trust, some weird internet polls that anyone can vote for as often as he wishes and that can easily be tricked, or the people who do polling for a living, and who ask actual people who came out of the theater. Really though choice there...
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, hw64 said:
No it hasn't lol
Yes it has.
Unless you are of the conviction that people just claimed they did those things for the heck of it. There are identical reviews, heck there are even Star Wars reviews that somehow appeared under movies like The Shape of the Water and Paddington 2, but I guess that isn't proof for bots being at work, no, clearly people were just too stupid to realise which movie they were rating...
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:
The audience score on RT (54%) is not a good omen for Episode IX.
The audience score is utterly meaningless as it has already been confirmed that it has been forged. Not that the fanbase isn't divided to an extent, but that rt number just doesn't have anything to do with reality.
Not that it really matters anyway. Episode II sits at an audience score of 57%, and III still passed it easily.
-
11 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
I wonder if the people, who classed my $600-650mil total prediction yesterday as borderline trolling, are starting to sweat a little now lol
Nope, still the borderline trolling like it was yesterday. Even a passing glance at box office history would tell you that. 600m should be passed by the first weekend in January even if drops would be worse than expected.
-
2
-
-
44 minutes ago, vc2002 said:
That's a pretty fast opinion change. I mean, from 5/10 to 6/10 is understandable as it's growing on you, but from a first viewing 5/10 (I dont like it) to a second viewing 8/10 (Hey that's really good I really like it), that's a bit too fast.
Do you think you have this fast-changing mind also on other stuff like songs or food, or it's just a movie thing.
What exactly makes it a bit too fast?
There is nothing about a movie that says a change of opinion has to be gradual. There can be plenty of reasons why the first viewing differs a ton from the second one. Expectations before the release for one, or being able to process things better the second time around because you already know what to expect.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:
So it this is at about $300mil going into the weekend, then has say a $70mil 2nd weekend, is even $600mil 'locked'?, i dont think it is.
Yes it is. Look at how the box office behaves with this kind of schedule and you already have the answer.
-
7
-
-
1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:
The legs will give a better indication. TDKR had the same reception in exit polling as TDK but the legs told a different story.
I think legs will be similar to Rogue One’s multiplier, which is very good but not in same stratosphere as TFA legs.
It feels a bit like the Titanic vs TPM comparison. Just like TPM, TLJ suffers from not matching the gargantuan movie that came some time before, which completely overshawdos how freakishly huge it actually is.
TLJ should end up with an opening week that is right up there with JW. A second week that will be far ahead of Rogue One, which is currently in second place, and a third week that should at the very least compete for the 2nd spot as well, if not for first if everything goes perfectly.
-
4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
We’re not comparing their first weeks due to the calendar.
Again, that’s why we wouldn’t be expecting a 6% drop.
That's the thing though, without knowing what the other movies did, and without having Wednesday numbers, it is completely unclear what this means.
It could be a sign of a certain lack of interest, or it could be a sign that things just work differently during the holiday-season, or it means something entirely different.
One thing that seems to be in effect, is that with some level of holidays already going on, Monday is bigger than it would be in a non-holiday situation. With the Monday drop depending on much many people are off already. See the different drops for TFA, Rogue One and TLJ under different schedules. This effect basically hides any Tuesday increases that would normally happen. Instead of a 70% drop on Monday with a 30% rise on Tuesday (like BatB, GotG2, It and Thor all had this year), you get to a 58% drop on Monday, which eats up the increase that would normally happen on Tuesday. If you apply the -70 +30 values to TLJ, you would end up with a 15m Monday and a 20m Tuesday, and that's right where Tuesday is supposed to land.
That theory doesn't explain the behaviour compared to TFA and Rogue One though.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
The thing this is heading for a 2nd weekend 33%-40 below TFA while Opening weekend was off by 11%. X-mas and Boxing day pick up some slack but it really shows sign of worse legs already.
That's just not a good comparison though, as the movies run on completely different schedules. TFA already had holiday-days in its first week, and a second weekend that was enhanced by christmas day, instead of being hurt by christmas eve.
TFA exceeded expectations of what its schedule could deliver, while TLJ is at best matching them, but that doesn't change the fact that they were bound to behave completely differently regardless of whether they exceeded expectations or not. The schedule was this year always suggested that the second set of weekdays would be better than the first, and that there would be a huge second weekend drop, with the third weekend haveing a good chance of even increasing a bit (generally speaking for the schedule). That's just completely different from what TFA got, which had a rather steady progression throughout the holidays.
-
1
-
):
Wednesday Numbers(27/12/17):TLJ $22m
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by George Parr
I'm not sure why 500-600m OS even gets mentioned, because that numbers has very little chance of happening. The movie already is at 420m internationally (~445m with Wednesday), while posting equal or bigger daily totals than the domestic side. The only reason why the international sum is a bit lower is due to christmas eve and christmas day being virtually dead days in most of the core markets for this movie, where in some parts theaters don't even open. While China might not add much, it still will enhance the gross, and there is quite a bit left in all the other markets as well.