hw64
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
hw64 replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Jumanji breaks 30%: 30.1% - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 18.7% - Star Wars: The Last Jedi 10.9% - Greatest Showman, The 8.3% - Pitch Perfect 3 5.8% - Ferdinand -
It lost the 3-day by $2.47m, so it lost the 4-day by about $0.5m. It was very close.
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It hasn't shown any real signs of stabilizing relative to Rogue One either yet, so it's possible (aside from these three weekdays which will have a boost) that it starts to fall behind Rogue One day-to-day maybe next week and beyond.
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You realize what it needs to do to pass Titanic, right? Outpace Rogue One by 40.8% every single day for the rest of its run off of a weekend that outpaced Rogue One by less than 2%?
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If TLJ holds like Rogue One from Monday onwards, it makes $82m more throughout the rest of its run and gets to $613.5m. Your calculation is based on TLJ making a certain static percentage of Rogue One's daily grosses from here on out.
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Down from $68.4m to $67.2m to $66.9m to $66.8m in the space of a few hours.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
hw64 replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
It's worth pointing out that all other movies are either staying flat (Ferdinand) or increasing (The Greatest Showman, Pitch Perfect 3), so this isn't just Jumanji increasing relative to everything else, it's also TLJ decreasing. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
hw64 replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
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Worldwide would be a fair bet, but I wouldn't put money on domestic atm.
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No, not at this point. I heard that it'd have to run just under 40% ahead of Rogue One for the rest of its run, and over this 4-day weekend it barely ran 2% over it. Edit: Just did the math and it's actually over 40%. It'd have to run over 40% above Rogue One every day for the rest of its run to reach Titanic.
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This is the 3rd round of estimates we've had this weekend (more if you count non-studio ones). Bring on the actuals please, studios.
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@WrathOfHan's supposition is that The Last Jedi continues to decline relative to Rogue One like it's been doing for its whole run. So this weekend, 5% above Rogue One, then maybe next weekend flat with Rogue One, then only 90% of Rogue One the next weekend, etc. It's possible that that happens, but I think it's more likely that it stabilizes somewhere very slightly above Rogue One like in the third weekend.
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That's less past its third weekend than Rogue One.
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Then again, people said similar things about Deadline's Friday.
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There you go again, stripping all context from the box office runs of two different films in an attempt to downplay the disappointment of The Last Jedi. Did you know that Batman v Superman is a bigger success story than Deadpool?
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For the record, I wasn't making any point. You asked if Disney stock had been losing value, and I checked and saw that yes, it had.
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Disney's stock price has been on a steady decline since Tuesday, December 19.
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What makes you think sub-50% drop for The Last Jedi?
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Frankly I've seen enough of these strawman-esque arguments that are made to mock and deride anyone who dare suggests TLJ is in any way a disappointment.
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$65m for the 4-day is not good. Jumanji will beat that handily.
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You're only saying they're over-predictions now because it's falling far behind them. Where was your insight before TLJ's release?
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Can't give Jumanji any of the biggest screens though. Thanks Disney!
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But again, it wasn't the appearance of Vader that was the draw - the draw was finding out how Anakin became Vader, which was half of the movie, as @redfirebird2008 said.
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Well yeah, that's what happens when you remove pretty much all context from their box office runs and just think of them as film #1 and film #2. You can conclude all sorts of silly things from removing every possible little bit of context there is.
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Yeah but that's in legitimate theatres that have legitimate theatrical productions, not cinemas that show blockbuster films. In an era of highly commercialized franchise-driven cinema, the use of the word "matinees" has always felt extremely out of place, at least to me.
