hw64

A paycheck from Disney, if he's lucky.

It begins.

Nobody said it was happening on a regular basis right now. It's the potential for it to start happening in the future

Are you saying that's never going to start happening on a regular basis?

Exchange rates are better almost across the board than The Force Awakens. EUR, AUD, JPY, RUB are all up from December 2015 against the dollar. The only notable exception is the pound, which is down slightly, but overall, given the share of the overseas gross that these markets make up collectively compared to the share the UK makes up, exchange rates are definitely more favorable for The Last Jedi. There's even the service fees in China which boost Chinese grosses by about 6%, which TFA didn't have. So yeah, the overseas drop is worse overall than the domestic drop, the reason being that The Force Awakens over-performed to a significant degree in markets like Russia, South Korea, China, Mexico, Brazil, etc. etc. That's the only reason why TFA sniffed a 45%/55% split - The Last Jedi is simply reverting to the Star Wars norm. In the case of episodic movies, you're probably looking at 47-49%/51-53% splits, and it wouldn't be surprising for the spinoffs to regularly have splits that are over 50% domestic.

It's going to end up close to a 47/53 split. The underperformance affected domestic more than it did overseas - if it had performed as expected, it'd probably have been closer to 49/51.

Now starting to come through.

That'd be an effective 'fuck you' to Disney. It'd be both funny and extremely gratifying to see it happen.

What happened to The Last Jedi in Australia? It's performing well in every other typical Star Wars stronghold market (UK, Germany, France, Japan) and yet in Australia, where Star Wars usually performs as well as in any of those markets, it's fallen behind Rogue One in its 4th weekend.

Quality contribution.

Then let me rephrase and say that I think there's a less than 1% chance that TLJ makes anywhere near $800m domestic and $1.8b worldwide.

Even if I haven't, I wouldn't be the only one here that's made absolute claims about uncertain things: If you're allowed to, then surely I am too.

Yeah that's not happening.

Perhaps only barely. Ignoring BOM's own average ticket adjustment method, a $620m total is probably somewhere in the region of 65m tickets sold for a movie like TLJ, and that'd take it to #48 ish.

Was it updated since you posted? It now reads: 2nd Update, midday: According to industry estimates, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is dominating in its third weekend with an estimated $26.6M, however, it’s not the only movie ganging up on Disney/Lucasfilm’ The Last Jedi which is looking like it’s headed to third with with $20.1M. Universal/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Last Key is currently eyeing second with $21.75M

I think higher. Despite the WOM, it'd have to basically not increase at all today for $25m - even Rogue One increased 20% or so on Saturday. I'd say $27m.

What happens if you do OS-Europe? Is TLJ even top 20? Or how about OS-UK?

Midnights are included in Thursday's gross.

No.

You're using the $1.027b figure for TPM, which includes the $102.7m worldwide gross for its 3D re-release. In its initial run, TPM made $924.3m, and Attack of the Clones' $649.4m is down 29.7% from that.

Er it's not doing very well. Only 27.15m for Friday so far and it's 2pm already. The Ex-File 3 is at 46.7m already, nearly double The Last Jedi.

San Andreas made over $100m.

The box office doesn't matter in that regard. A film a year drives merchandise sales far more than a film every three years does. They can push out a load of shitty new toys whenever a film comes out and make shitloads consistently rather than having toy sales fall off a cliff for the two and a half years after a movie is released.

7.6 on maoyan lol

Refer to Rth's figures, which he posted last week: