hw64

Ultron might be bigger than The Last Jedi worldwide and there's definitely been underperformance conversations about that.

The vast majority of the 2017 top worldwide grossers have domestic/overseas splits that are at least 40/60, with most being at 35/65 or above. The only really notable exceptions are It and Wonder Woman (both over-performed domestically), Guardians 2, and The Last Jedi. In fact, the average domestic/overseas split of the top 40 highest-grossing films of 2017 is 30/70.

It's far easier to perform well in a single market than it is to basically max out in every single market you release in. Titanic's overseas gross represents exactly that - a huge performance in pretty much every single overseas market it was released in. The only movie to even come close to such consistency huge performances across every market is Avatar. The fact that F7 can near-reach Titanic's original overseas gross despite being basically completely incomparable to it in a vast majority of markets is testament to the kind of growth that overseas has seen over the past 20 years. The fact that Avatar, despite being a shade less successful than Titanic in most overseas markets, could make $2b overseas while Titanic could only make $1.2b, is more proof.

A near 50/50 split isn't a normal domestic-overseas ratio in 2017 (nor was it in 2009), and that's the only way Avatar only gets to $1.5-$1.6b with $760m domestically.

I'm fully aware that Rth gets his figures through access to comScore's (formerly Rentrak) real-time analytics platform, which most studios/distributors pay for subscriptions to. I never said you should wait to discuss anything. I don't know why this has caused such a fuss - I only said that there's a slight discrepancy between Rth's $22m and the early-morning estimate of $21.5m, and that there might be a slight discrepancy between actuals and both of these two figures like there was yesterday. Baumer made this into a bigger deal than it needed to be.

There's no need to react like this because I made a post you disagree with about the Star Wars franchise's overseas/worldwide future. Rth is never 100% accurate, and I'll repeat for a second time that I merely said that we should wait until actuals for a fully accurate number, as yesterday Rth's estimate was off $100k from the early-morning figure which was off $600k from actuals, while today Rth's figure is off $500k from early-morning estimates which could similarly be off $600k from actuals like yesterday.

Troll territory? What are you even talking about? I'm saying it would be wise to wait until we get actuals for a completely accurate number. TLJ's actual figure yesterday dropped nearly $600k from the early-morning estimates of $28.3m, so it's possible the same could happen with today's $21.5m early-morning figure.

Yesterday, Rth's figure was $28.2m, the early-morning estimates were $28.3m, and then the actual figure was $27.7m. Today, $22m from Rth, $21.5m from early-morning estimates, so it'd be wise to wait until actuals.

What are you talking about, "pick and choose"? The box office markets that are most important are the ones that generate the most revenue for a film, and, in terms of box office returns for studios, the ones that generate good revenue and allow studios to take home the highest shares of that revenue. In both metrics, the domestic market is dwindling in relevance on the worldwide stage due to the emergence of such markets like China, which, even in 2017, can generate similar revenue for a film as the domestic market can. Give it a few decades or less, and despite the lower share of revenue studios receive in China, China will likely dwarf the domestic market in terms of both box office revenue and box office returns/profit. The point is that as time passes, domestic will continue to lose importance on the global stage, and this will have a negative impact on both the worldwide grosses that the Star Wars franchise can produce in comparison to other films, and also the profitability of Star Wars films in comparison to others. This has nothing to do with a single film, it's about Star Wars as a franchise.

Yes, that's why studios are trying so desperately to establish in places like China right now. Star Wars is very much representative of the box office market of old, where domestic was by far the more important market and most movies make around 50% of their total gross domestically. As the domestic market slowly but surely loses prominence and becomes less important on the worldwide stage, it'll be the Avatars and the MCUs that thrive in the box office market of tomorrow. The failure of Star Wars in such important growing markets like China and the rest of Asia has far more consequences for the franchise's box office power in decades to come than it does today, where it can still remain competitive worldwide based on domestic success that makes up for mediocre overseas performances. That won't be the case forever.

That's factually wrong. All three of the prequels were released in China.

Nobody cares about studio profit except studios and shareholders. People want to know which movies were the most popular - that's why admissions tracking/estimating and adjusted grosses are so prevalent in box office discussions.

Because Rogue One's third Saturday was New Year's Eve, and he hasn't changed his model to reflect that the same is not true of TLJ.

Whatever happened to @terrestrial? I just came across one of his posts in an old thread I was looking through and realized I hadn't seen him around here in a while. He stopped posting in January this year.

Someone willing to admit that they were wrong. That's a rarity here.

Jim'll get an extension on goodwill alone.

Yes.

Has anyone made an Avatar 1 and 2 over Episode VII, VIII and IX club yet?

So you bring in the bigger picture for everything but The Last Jedi, right? Because bringing in the bigger for The Last Jedi tells us that while the movie is/will be financially successful, it's a disappointment compared to what it should have done in the wake of TFA ($1.5b or more).

Movie Y opened to $166m and made $330m in total, plus an extra $543m overseas for an $873m worldwide total. Movie Y was a hit!

Based Rob strikes back

Perhaps you would have said the same about Jumanji before The Last Jedi's release.

He's just parroting the official Disney estimate for Monday, though.

And theaters will be pissed too, for Disney forcing this to be shown on their biggest screens for 4 weeks, and now the movie is disappointing while Jumanji is thriving. Hopefully next time they can tell Disney to fuck right off.

Yeah people need to stop abusing the word "locked". The highest gross for TLJ that was "locked" before its run started was $400m, maybe $500m.