hw64
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Everything posted by hw64
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Coppola get your goat, son?
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No, I'm taking the actual admission data from Avatar in the UK. See:
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I've used actual admission data from Avatar and Infinity War, rather than yearly ticket price averages which are less than accurate. Avatar sold 16.51m tickets (see here, here) in its 2009-10 run and grossed about £94.0m (see here, here) for a ticket price average of £5.69. Infinity War sold 9.19m tickets (see here) in its theatrical run and grossed about £70.8m (see here, here) for a ticket price average of £7.70.
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Avatar's ticket price average in the UK was ~£5.69. The Force Awakens' was £7.23. The Last Jedi's was £7.52. Infinity War's was £7.70. The GBP/USD exchange rate for Avatar was around $1.60 per £. £1 is currently worth around $1.30. With Infinity War's ticket price average and today's exchange rates, Avatar's UK gross would increase by about 10% in dollars. Now imagine what the ticket price averages are going to look like for Avatar 2, which will have 2 and a half years of ticket price inflation over Infinity War (which already had a ticket price average 35% greater than Avatar's).
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Jesus christ lol. Rogue One did $33m.
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And completely wrong.
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Overseas predictions in this thread from December 2017 onwards, prior to the film's release: $850m $950m $800m-$850m $900m $800m $850m $800m+ "Over $768m" "I think it clears $800m OS at least." $750m $750m max The majority of people had it at the $800-$900m mark. It's underperformed worse domestically than overseas, but to say most people projected $700-$750m is objectively wrong - pretty much nobody predicted an overseas gross as low as $710m. And a bomb in China wasn't expected, either. It was looking likely to do worse than Rogue One, but not as low as $40m.
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Completely impossible. Would have to drop 20% week on week every single week for the rest of its run to even equal The Last Jedi's total, without Japan that is. Without putting too much work into this, it's pretty clear that Jumanji's overseas total will be under $550m.
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$9.9m weekend, including about $0.9m in China, so $9m overseas minus China for the weekend. $17m week, including about $1.8m in China, so $15.2m overseas minus China for the week.
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Daily Numbers | Tuesday 16th Jan | Paddington 2 745k
hw64 replied to MaxAggressor's topic in Numbers and Data
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As absurd of a notion as it is, Avatar 2 is the first film since Avatar that has a non-zero chance of toppling Avatar's $2.79b. Even though its chance may be 0.1%, that's still greater than the chance every other film released since 2009 has had to topple Avatar, put together.
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Have you not seen all the "I'm sure Disney are wiping their tears with their millions" posts, the revisionist "everyone's expectations were too high - a less than 3x multiplier in December was supposed to happen"/"it was always going to bomb in China" type posts, all the circlejerk-y "oh no, only the Xth highest-grossing film of all time, what a disappointment" posts? I'm not talking about in this thread specifically right now, but there has been a lot of that going about. Perpetuated by the same few people, perhaps, but still, there definitely are people saying it.
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I'm talking specifically of the people who claim that The Last Jedi isn't a disappointment, that it made what it was supposed to make, and that everyone's pre-release predictions were just too high.
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I'm just saying that if The Last Jedi is not a disappointment for Disney because it made $1.3b and that's still a lot of money/profit for Disney (which is how the argument generally goes, for those who believe TLJ isn't a disappointment), then Avatar 2 is not a disappointment if it makes $1.3b by the exact same logic.
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I expect those who refuse to believe that TLJ is in any way a disappointment will call Avatar 2 a resounding success if it comes out and makes $1.3b worldwide. Anything else would be a double standard, right?
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I expected it to drop from The Force Awakens, but I didn't expect it to outright bomb and only make $40m, and I think that was the general expectation of most people - less than TFA, but similar to Rogue One's $69m. Olive had it at $70-$80m a month before release; Gavin Feng said an optimistic $100m. To say it was "expected" to bomb all this time is quite revisionist - it was only expected to do terribly after presales tracking started and it performed horribly.
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Not exactly unprecendented if The Dark Knight with no 3D adjusts to far more with The Last Jedi's average ticket price than The Last Jedi itself has made. The Dark Knight sold 74.3m tickets using the average ticket price of 2008. The Last Jedi will probably sell between 60m and 65m ticket by the end of its run.
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Then the question should be whether The Last Jedi will have a run in dollar theaters, or, if it does, whether it'll be anywhere near as successful as Rogue One was. From what I can tell by week-on-week drops and weekly theater counts, some movies either don't do well in dollar theaters or don't even get runs in them at all: The Force Awakens never increased week-on-week either in gross or in theater count in the latter parts of its run, and nor did Homecoming, Beauty and the Beast, etc etc.
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Something people aren't taking into account is the fact that Rogue One had a small re-expansion late in its run that added around $2m onto its final total: So really, it would have grossed around $28m from Monday rather than $30m. Using $28.2m instead of $30.2m, The Last Jedi with Rogue One's holds from the fifth (4-day) weekend would make an additional $25.6m, which makes a $621.1m final gross with a $595.5m total through Monday.
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I think it actually outpaced (or at least paced level with) Infinity War over 2017, though. Avatar 2 added 70k want to sees in that time period, and I think Infinity War was at like 30k, maybe even 40k at the end of 2016, so it's added 60-70k or so. The fact that it's pacing similarly to a big blockbuster that's releasing 2 and a half years before it is a good sign at least. Edit: Checked and it was at 27k in April 2017, so 73k since then and probably 80k-90k in 2017, so slightly ahead of what Avatar 2 did in the same time period.
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Avatar 2 has always been massive on Maoyan compared to other future releases. It's so big that it often eclipses the "want to see"s of other big blockbusters that are within days of their release, when that metric peaks. It's been steadily increasing, too - in mid-December of 2016, it was at 276.4k want to sees, and just over a year later it's at 346.2k, with Avatar 2 still being 3 years out and no substantial news having been released in the interim.
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
hw64 replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
Judging by presales, should be light. Much lighter than the opening Saturday to Sunday drop.
