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hw64

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Everything posted by hw64

  1. Barely more than a year away now. And 1,000 pages, damn. There's a lot of history in this thread.
  2. I don't think China will allow a foreign film to become the highest-grossing film in China again. A domestic film has held that title from mid-2017 onwards — nearly 5 years now — and given that the title is now held, at least in dollar gross, by The Battle at Lake Changjin, it seems especially unlikely that they'll want to relinquish the title, given the content of that film. All that to say: while Avatar 2 might have the potential to be the highest-grossing film of all time in China without any outside meddling, The Battle at Lake Changjin's ~$900m is likely to serve as an upper l
  3. The "GA" has absolutely no interest in release schedules, and has not been paying attention to Avatar 2's release date changes over the past 5 or 6 years. In fact, the GA probably doesn't even know an Avatar 2 is coming out yet, and won't know until the marketing starts. The people who religiously keep up with movie news — the types that post about movies on Reddit, Twitter, YouTube etc. — are not the GA by any stretch.
  4. We are now closer than we've ever been to the release of Avatar 2. Just over 500 days to go!
  5. It's less than 18 months away (again), I believe we're off the Lot. Edit: Thread's been moved, thanks mods.
  6. Just to update: Fellowship has actually jumped up to 20k showings on Saturday now, so more in the ballpark of the other rereleases, although still quite a bit smaller.
  7. Seems to be very small-scale. Currently has about 5k showings on Saturday, and will probably end up at around 6k in total. The Harry Potter and Avatar re-releases both had about 60k showings on their first Saturdays, for comparison. There's obviously more competition at the moment with Detective Conan opening this weekend, Sister and all last week's local openers still playing, GvK, etc., but even so. I don't think the re-releases are only going to be playing for a week, though—where are you getting that from? Presales for the second/third/fourth weeks will only show up later in th
  8. Won't hit $60m. Heading for a total of just over $56m—think it's at about $54.5m currently, through Sunday.
  9. ¥22.6m ($3.5m) for the weekend. Passed $50m on Saturday as expected—current total $51.7m.
  10. GvK's gross on Maoyan has been stuck at 13,647.85万 for roughly the past half an hour.
  11. Weekend ended up at around $14.1m, down 33% from opening weekend. Total currently $44m, will pass $50m next Friday or Saturday.
  12. Avatar's doing really well today, better than I expected—seems to play especially well at the weekend. Currently at ¥38.5m for Saturday at 9pm local time, and should hit ¥40m by the end of the day. Sunday presales are at ¥4m right now and should end up at around ¥5m by 12am, compared to Saturday's ¥7m. The Sunday drop won't be as good as last week's non-drop but it should still be pretty decent. Total weekend should be around $13.5-$14.2m, a great result.
  13. Didn't quite reach ¥19m or ¥20m in the end, ended up at around ¥18.8m ($2.9m) for today. I was probably a bit overzealous with the ¥20m, but it slowed down quicker than I expected for a Friday and the gross also froze for around 30 minutes. Still, presales for Saturday are good at just over ¥7m currently, and it should be a good weekend for Avatar.
  14. Think ¥20m is likely today. With that kind of a Friday, we could see the weekend hitting $13-$14m.
  15. Monday: ¥18.05m ($2.78m) Tuesday: ¥15.37m ($2.36m) Wednesday: ¥13.00m ($2.00m) Thursday: should be around ¥12m ($1.85m) I agree with others here that this weekend should be $10m+, maybe around $11-$12m.
  16. The major payoff has already happened, but nevertheless it'll be interesting to follow the rest of this run. It's still early on Sunday, but for what it's worth, Avatar is currently pacing on par with Saturday, if not slightly ahead. Given that it's a Sunday, I expect that the evenings will be weaker and it won't quite match Saturday's gross, but in any case it seems like the very positive WOM is really starting to buoy the film after a small opening day (which was to be expected really, given the circumstances of release). It'll really be a testament to Avatar's enduri
  17. Great post. While I don't believe (and I highly doubt you do either) that the global market is untapped to the extent that it was when Jurassic Park was the highest-grossing film of all time—not even a Titanic-sized hit could double today's $2.8b record and make $5.6b—the comparison is definitely a very apt one in terms of how Endgame didn't fully realize the potential of the 2019 global market to the extent that Avatar, and especially Titanic, did in their respective years. It's clear to me that, in comparison to Avatar and Titanic which both maxed or near-maxed out the potential
  18. The exchange rate issue is absolutely a factor, but the impact of exchange rates is dwarfed massively by the impact of box office market growth—especially with China in the last decade—which heavily favours more recent films. Almost everyone's aware that China has expanded by a factor of roughly 800-850% in admissions since 2009, but outside of the US, Europe, Japan and Australia (the established markets), almost every single box office market has seen significant growth in the last decade, including: Russia (roughly +60% in admissions from 2009 to 2019); South Kor
  19. 20m at 9:13 local time, plus 292k midnights. Presales for tomorrow looking good at 11.5m currently.
  20. Shorter than normal releases for sure, but Interstellar had about 9 days of presales, and Harry Potter 1 had about 14 days. The rereleases were announced months in advance, too.
  21. It seems possible, given that this re-release was announced only 2 days ago which is hardly any time at all to get the word out, that Avatar might have better walk-ups than similar releases, and possibly better legs. We're already seeing presales backloading in the opening weekend.
  22. Overall: ¥12.1m ($1.87m) Friday: ¥5.6m ($860k) Saturday and Sunday are at ¥4.4m ($680k) and ¥1.9m ($290k) respectively, so this seems to be far more backloaded than most releases in China in terms of presales. Presumably a result of the extremely short release notice.
  23. Total presales on the Maoyan app are currently at about ¥5.45m, or $840k. For Friday, ¥2.66m ($410k).
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