Gavin Feng

@terrestrial I keep believing in Rogue One. Some reviews say it has a excellent 3rd act and praise Donnie Yen, and I think it will give a help on box office.

It seems TGW OW won’t be higher than ￥350m

Opens on Thursday I remember

RT 90%, MTC 82? China $21m OD $69m OW $140m lifetime?

2016 Hollywood studio box office Disney - 6,147m - 8 films Fox - 1,928m - 5 films W.B. - 1,632m - 5 films Paramount - 943m - 5 films Universal - 942m - 3 films Sony - 401m - 3 films

Alright. As far as I know, no powerful opponents will appear before Spring Festival. And the travel rush(many live in first-tier cities will come back to hometown for reuniting with family which mostly is located in third and fourth tier cities) will help Rogue One’s drop of Second and Third weekend(less than -60% for Mon, -10% for Tue-Thu and Sunday but +35%-60% on Saturday). 22 days for Rogue One(Jan.6 - 27, many watch TV on eve, and screen showings will be cut to 0.01% from first day of SF) For the time being, levels of interest is not high, and I hope the film can keep the boom in US and Europe so that more audience will know it just like TFA. The most important thing is RT. Although Chinese seldom care about RT and MTC, it still make sense to box office for most time. optimistic prediction ￥150m OD including midnights, ￥480m OW, ￥1,000m lifetime gross($140m).

Do you really wanna listen to my advice?

OD record holder Year Title Opening Day 1998 Titanic 18.00M 2005 The Promise 21.15M 2007 Transformers 22.41M 2008 Red Cliff 27.00M 2009 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 33.71M 2010 Avatar 36.00M 2010 Aftershock 36.20M 2011 Kung Fu Panda 2 53.45M 2011 Transformers: Dark of the Moon 102.0M 2013 Iron Man 3 122.6M 2014 The Monkey King 129.0M 2014 Transformer: Age of Extinction 198.2M 2015 Furious 7 398.9M OW(opening weekly) record holder Year Title Opening Weekly 2004 Kung Fu Hustle 63.00M 2005 The Promise 82.00M 2007 Transformers 97.00M 2008 Red Cliff 108.00M 2009 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 152.27M 2010 Avatar 291.93M 2011 Transformers: Dark of the Moon 412.85M 2012 Titanic 3D 443.88M 2014 Transformer: Age of Extinction 631.88M 2015 Avengers: Age of Ultron 966.58M 2016 The Mermaid 1821.48M

In fact what I said is sarcasm. I love Rogue One so much and hope The Great Wall will flop(even I like Matt Damon and Jason Bourne).

$80-90M OD and $200-220M OW "I guess”(you know what I mean) The Great Wall must make $200m OW, killing Rogue One’s domestic OW and total

So, that is the sarcasm for Assassin’s Creed, right?

Optimistic prediction￥850M($123M) if the film is awesome. The Force Awaken made ￥825M.

I think he meant that. I remember he was the only guy who told BvS reactions were mixed from W.B. executive.

Many lifelong fans would like to go cinema early and the reasons is what you said(it might not be in the cinema 1 or 2 weeks later). Some of the rest(especially general audience) still don’t have that awareness and may watch another film if no showings for what they wanted to in correct time. They don’t think they must watch this and it will be fine for them to watch any film which shows in right time.

Your English is good. Hope you won’t think that I did blame you.And I admire self-trained guy(I have a hard time about learning English in Junior and never dreamed that one day I can discuss those questions with all of you). I don’t know if the answer I gave is what you wanna. I really really really hope that I can clear your mind as long as I understand exactly the meaning.

I don’t know how to understand and discuss those difficult questions in English.You can ask me with more simple language if you don’t mind. Many of my friends don’t know much about screen showings. And they don’t know much about what film are they showing until they come to the cinema.

The proportion of screen showings drop quickly because of the ideal of arrangement. When the new blockbusters open, cinema staffs always like to give 35-40%(about 77k-88k showings, sometimes more) to them by cutting old films' showings. DS had 36%-40%(77k-89k) on the first 7 days. 20%-26%(50k-55k) on the next 7 days because of the opening of Billy Lynn and One Piece Film Gold. 10%-17%(23k-34k) on the third 7 days when Madame Bovary came. 2.5%-4%(5k-7.5k) on the fourth 7 days by Fantastic Beasts(hurt by Your Name and Miss Peregrine now) and Moana. 0.2%(433-475) on the final 3 days with the same reason of FB. As far as I know, the proportion of blockbusters’ showings(including The Avengers) won’t be more than 15% at any time. So they made record in that situation and won’t face the problem of cutting showings.

There will have a 15 min footage showing to cinema managers on Tuesday evening(premiere).But none of them wanna watch that. Only one media screening will play the film(not sure if that is the whole film) before opening(7pm Dec.15). China Film Group hope the film could make ￥3 billion(about $430m) in China.

China Box Office Doctor Strange Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change 　 　 　 USD / M 　 　 USD / M 　 USD / M 　 Thu Nov . 3 5 $0.59 - - $0.59 0 $44.48 - Fri Nov . 4 1 $12.08 - - $12.66 1 　 Sat Nov . 5 1 $17.82 40.69% - $30.48 2 Sun Nov . 6 1 $14.00 -21.42% - $44.48 3 　 Mon Nov . 7 1 $5.01 -64.25% - $49.49 4 $39.99 -10.10% Tue Nov . 8 1 $4.58 -8.41% - $54.07 5 　 Wed Nov . 9 1 $4.08 -11.01% - $58.15 6 Thu Nov . 10 1 $3.44 -15.60% - $61.60 7 　 Fri Nov . 11 1 $5.63 63.51% -55.54% $67.23 8 Sat Nov . 12 1 $9.83 74.66% -44.80% $77.06 9 　 Sun Nov . 13 1 $7.41 -24.67% -47.09% $84.47 10 　 Mon Nov . 14 1 $2.36 -68.14% -52.85% $86.83 11 $19.74 -50.63% 　 Tue Nov . 15 1 $2.15 -8.91% -53.11% $88.98 12 Wed Nov . 16 1 $2.04 -5.21% -50.05% $91.02 13 　 Thu Nov . 17 1 $1.86 -8.64% -45.93% $92.88 14 Fri Nov . 18 2 $2.20 17.98% -60.99% $95.08 15 　 Sat Nov . 19 2 $5.06 130.45% -48.53% $100.14 16 Sun Nov . 20 2 $4.08 -19.50% -44.99% $104.21 17 　 Mon Nov . 21 2 $1.30 -68.15% -45.01% $105.51 18 $6.32 -68.00% Tue Nov . 22 2 $1.22 -6.02% -43.26% $106.73 19 　 Wed Nov . 23 2 $1.17 -3.98% -42.53% $107.90 20 Thu Nov . 24 5 $1.12 -4.65% -40.02% $109.02 21 　 Fri Nov . 25 7 $0.34 -69.98% -84.74% $109.35 22 Sat Nov . 26 6 $0.65 94.96% -87.09% $110.01 23 　 Sun Nov . 27 6 $0.52 -19.78% -87.13% $110.53 24 　 Mon Nov . 28 6 $0.20 -62.36% -84.79% $110.73 25 $0.71 -88.76% 　 Tue Nov . 29 6 $0.20 1.65% -83.55% $110.93 26 Wed Nov . 30 7 $0.12 -38.01% -89.38% $111.05 27 　 Thu Dec . 1 8 $0.12 0.36% -88.82% $111.18 28 Fri Dec . 2 - $0.02 -82.68% -93.55% $111.20 29 　 Sat Dec . 3 - $0.04 69.86% -94.38% $111.24 30 Sun Dec . 4 - $0.00 -87.90% -99.15% $111.24 31 　 ExRate: $1=￥6.7534 Total Gross = $111.24 million

That’s wrong.