Gavin Feng

I use OD exchange rate(about $1=¥6.756) for the whole running time.Someone told me that BOM used different exchange rates for different weeks.In third and fourth week of DS, depreciation of RMB(about $1=¥6.9) made BOM number become less than mine.

China Box Office Doctor Strange Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change 　 　 　 USD / M 　 　 USD / M 　 USD / M 　 Thu Nov . 3 5 $0.59 - - $0.59 0 $44.47 - Fri Nov . 4 1 $12.07 - - $12.66 1 Sat Nov . 5 1 $17.81 40.69% - $30.47 2 Sun Nov . 6 1 $14.00 -21.43% - $44.47 3 　 Mon Nov . 7 1 $5.00 -64.24% - $49.47 4 $39.98 -10.09% Tue Nov . 8 1 $4.58 -8.40% - $54.06 5 Wed Nov . 9 1 $4.08 -11.01% - $58.14 6 Thu Nov . 10 1 $3.44 -15.60% - $61.58 7 Fri Nov . 11 1 $5.63 63.52% -55.53% $67.21 8 Sat Nov . 12 1 $9.83 74.66% -44.79% $77.04 9 Sun Nov . 13 1 $7.41 -24.67% -47.08% $84.45 10 　 Mon Nov . 14 1 $2.36 -68.14% -52.85% $86.81 11 $19.73 -50.64% Tue Nov . 15 1 $2.15 -8.90% -53.10% $88.96 12 Wed Nov . 16 1 $2.04 -5.22% -50.05% $91.00 13 Thu Nov . 17 1 $1.86 -8.63% -45.93% $92.86 14 Fri Nov . 18 2 $2.20 17.97% -60.99% $95.06 15 Sat Nov . 19 2 $5.06 130.29% -48.56% $100.11 16 Sun Nov . 20 2 $4.07 -19.53% -45.05% $104.19 17 　 Mon Nov . 21 2 $1.30 -68.16% -45.08% $105.48 18 $6.31 -68.02% Tue Nov . 22 2 $1.22 -5.99% -43.33% $106.70 19 Wed Nov . 23 2 $1.17 -4.00% -42.60% $107.87 20 Thu Nov . 24 5 $1.11 -4.69% -40.11% $108.98 21 Fri Nov . 25 7 $0.34 -69.93% -84.74% $109.32 22 Sat Nov . 26 6 $0.65 94.80% -87.09% $109.97 23 Sun Nov . 27 6 $0.52 -19.69% -87.11% $110.50 24 　 Mon Nov . 28 6 $0.20 -62.43% -84.80% $110.69 25

UPDATED, Thursday, 3:08 PM: Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them had an opening day of $11.2M in China, besting Disney’s animated musical Moana, the studio says, by five times the gross. With China’s tally added in, Friday morning will see the film push past the $200M mark as its cume through Thursday is $199.3M.

I calculated those datas so absolutely true. And I don’t worry about Asia especially China.It may earn $650m-$850m in the biggest film market of future I guess. But Euro and Latin America would be hurt by exchange rate.What’s more, I don’t think it will not do as well as the first Avatar in local currency.

Avatar overseas box office at today’s exchange rate Market 2009 Nov-16 Drop China $204,129,854 $201,507,017 -1% Japan $171,990,531 $139,247,883 -19% South Korea $105,485,521 $103,203,717 -2% Australia $105,779,507 $87,495,610 -17% U.K. $150,025,197 $115,448,494 -23% France $175,615,305 $129,100,581 -26% Germany $162,333,962 $119,337,029 -26% Russia $117,103,251 $55,803,252 -52% Italy $83,498,193 $61,177,129 -27% Spain $109,992,746 $80,859,281 -26% Mexico $44,229,043 $27,474,547 -38% Brazil $58,218,829 $29,315,636 -50% Asia $724M $635M -12% Euro $1,057M $736M -30% Latin $162M $87M -47%

The real last day is Dec.3.But screen showings have been cut a lot.

The Hollywood Reporter Fox has dropped a Thanksgiving eve surprise. The studio has set release dates for two untitled Marvel movies, with one set for Nov. 2, 2018, and another bowing Feb. 14, 2019. Fox also dated an untitled film from James Cameron's Lightstorm Entertainment for Dec. 21, 2018. The studio is releasing Cameron's Avatar follow-ups. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/did-fox-just-date-avatar-2-950401 Variety In other news that set the rumor mill ablaze: Fox set a date for a movie from James Cameron’s Lightstorm Entertainment, planting its flag on Dec. 21, 2018. This is widely speculated to be Cameron’s highly anticipated, much-delayed sequel to 2009 mega-hit “Avatar.” The first “Avatar” opened on the same week in December. http://variety.com/2016/film/news/marvel-movies-dates-fox-alien-covenant-release-1201926238/

Left Tern Fox 2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox 1/12/18 Predator (2018) Fox 2/9/18 Untitled Fox / Marvel Film (2018) Fox 3/2/18 Anubis Fox 3/23/18 Untitled Fox/DWA/Blue Sky (March 2018) Fox 3/23/18 Untitled Fox / Marvel Fox 6/29/18 Untitled Fox/DWA/Blue Sky (June 2018) Fox 6/29/18 Alita: Battle Angel Fox 7/20/18 Untitled Fox/DWA/Blue Sky (July 2018) Fox 7/20/18 Untitled Fox / Marvel Film #2 (2018) Fox 11/2/18 Untitled Fox / Lightstorm Film Fox 12/21/18 So, it’s real

China Box Office Doctor Strange Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change 　 　 　 USD / M 　 　 USD / M 　 USD / M 　 Thu Nov . 3 5 $0.59 - - $0.59 0 $44.38 - Fri Nov . 4 1 $12.06 - - $12.65 1 Sat Nov . 5 1 $17.78 40.56% - $30.42 2 Sun Nov . 6 1 $13.96 -21.49% - $44.38 3 　 Mon Nov . 7 1 $5.00 -64.19% - $49.38 4 $39.95 -9.98% Tue Nov . 8 1 $4.58 -8.41% - $53.95 5 Wed Nov . 9 1 $4.08 -10.94% - $58.03 6 Thu Nov . 10 1 $3.44 -15.61% - $61.47 7 Fri Nov . 11 1 $5.63 63.55% -55.52% $67.09 8 Sat Nov . 12 1 $9.83 74.70% -44.71% $76.92 9 Sun Nov . 13 1 $7.40 -24.67% -46.95% $84.33 10 　 Mon Nov . 14 1 $2.36 -68.15% -52.81% $86.68 11 $19.65 -50.82% Tue Nov . 15 1 $2.15 -8.96% -53.09% $88.83 12 Wed Nov . 16 1 $2.03 -5.28% -50.11% $90.87 13 Thu Nov . 17 1 $1.85 -8.90% -46.14% $92.72 14 Fri Nov . 18 2 $2.19 17.96% -61.16% $94.90 15 Sat Nov . 19 2 $4.92 124.96% -49.98% $99.82 16 Sun Nov . 20 2 $4.15 -15.51% -43.90% $103.97 17 　 ExRate: $1=￥6.7534

￥700m have done for DS

So theater chains should be independent from film studio.I hope United States v. Paramount Picture, Inc will happen in China.

Rumor says Wanda gave the order that most theaters of Wanda could play the film 3 times a day for most.

Guess about $8m for third weekend in China. China Box Office Doctor Strange Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change 　 　 　 USD / M 　 　 USD / M 　 USD / M 　 Thu Nov . 3 5 $0.59 - - $0.59 0 $44.38 - Fri Nov . 4 1 $12.06 - - $12.65 1 Sat Nov . 5 1 $17.78 40.56% - $30.42 2 Sun Nov . 6 1 $13.96 -21.49% - $44.38 3 Mon Nov . 7 1 $5.00 -64.19% - $49.38 4 $39.95 -9.99% Tue Nov . 8 1 $4.58 -8.41% - $53.95 5 Wed Nov . 9 1 $4.08 -10.94% - $58.03 6 Thu Nov . 10 1 $3.44 -15.61% - $61.47 7 Fri Nov . 11 1 $5.63 63.55% -55.52% $67.09 8 Sat Nov . 12 1 $9.83 74.70% -44.71% $76.92 9 Sun Nov . 13 1 $7.40 -24.69% -46.96% $84.32 10 Mon Nov . 14 1 $2.36 -68.14% -52.82% $86.68 11 Tue Nov . 15 1 $2.15 -8.97% -53.11% $88.83 12 Wed Nov . 16 1 $2.03 -5.40% -50.19% $90.86 13 Thu Nov . 17 1 $1.85 -8.86% -46.20% $92.71 14 ExRate: $1=￥6.7534

A former senior employee of Wanda hopped to Huayi, which is the distributor of I Am Not Madame Bovary.

Non-Holiday opening Monday - Avatar set the record for opening day with ￥36m on Jan.4 2010.The Amazing Spider-Man and The Dark Knight Rises did less than that number on Aug.27 2012(Summer Holiday). Tuesday - Titanic 3D made ￥73m,which was just behind Transformer 3’s ￥112m.Avengers: Age of Ultron made ￥224m last year, the second highest opening day number for import films.Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation earned ￥124m last year, the highest opening day for 2D import films. Wednesday - Jurassic World made ￥110m last year and Warcraft did ￥300m this year. Thursday - Transformer 3 and Monster Hunter(￥171m) released in Summer Holiday. Friday - Transformer 4: Age of Extinction made ￥196m. Saturday - The Avengers(￥70m) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens(￥215m) released in holiday. Sunday - Furious 7(￥399m) released in holiday.

Opening on Tue is a good choice for Deepwater Horizon.There will be more competition on Fri.

In Shanghai, a 4K+120fps theater called Shanghai Film Art Center made $631k(￥4.3m) from Billy Lynn on last weekend.Two 4K+120fps theaters located in New York and Los Angeles only did $114k.

Hope Fantastic Beasts will make $80m.

Second weekend estimated number is $22.76m(-48.7%). Batman v Superman -77.6% Civil War -66.8% Apocalypse -74.7% China Box Office Doctor Strange Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change 　 　 　 USD / M 　 　 USD / M 　 USD / M 　 Thu Nov . 3 5 $0.59 - - $0.59 0 $44.38 - Fri Nov . 4 1 $12.06 - - $12.65 1 Sat Nov . 5 1 $17.78 40.56% - $30.42 2 Sun Nov . 6 1 $13.96 -21.49% - $44.38 3 Mon Nov . 7 1 $4.98 -64.28% - $49.36 4 $39.78 -10.37% Tue Nov . 8 1 $4.56 -8.54% - $53.92 5 Wed Nov . 9 1 $4.06 -11.00% - $57.98 6 Thu Nov . 10 1 $3.42 -15.72% - $61.40 7 Fri Nov . 11 1 $5.55 62.38% -56.10% $66.95 8 Sat Nov . 12 1 $9.77 75.95% -45.04% $76.72 9 Sun Nov . 13 1 $7.43 -23.92% -46.74% $84.16 10

I’m happy to tell everyone it’s inevitable that Doctor Strange will reach $100m in China(before the ending of next week I guess).$108m(about ￥730m) is possible. China Box Office Doctor Strange Day Date Rank Gross % - YD % - LW Gross-to-Date Day # Weekly Gross % - Change 　 　 　 USD / M 　 　 USD / M 　 USD / M 　 Thu Nov . 3 5 $0.59 - - $0.59 0 $44.38 - Fri Nov . 4 1 $12.06 - - $12.65 1 Sat Nov . 5 1 $17.78 40.56% - $30.42 2 Sun Nov . 6 1 $13.95 -21.50% - $44.38 3 Mon Nov . 7 1 $4.98 -64.28% - $49.36 4 Tue Nov . 8 1 $4.56 -8.54% - $53.92 5 Wed Nov . 9 1 $4.06 -11.00% - $57.98 6 Thu Nov . 10 1 $3.42 -15.72% - $61.40 7 Fri Nov . 11 1 $5.55 62.38% -56.10% $66.95 8 Sat Nov . 12 1 $9.85 77.33% -44.61% $76.80 9

I also hope more co-productions will come.But it seems there are many creative differences between China and US.Kung fu Panda 3 is good and it could have done better in China.I think more Chinese studios will be encouraged to work with US filmmakers if The Great Wall succeeds.

Too many bad films audience have watched.It’s time to rise against China filmmakers.

Under 10% in RMB I think.In US$, that would be less than 5%.

Ideally, $640M worldwide for DS. North America $230M Asia $220M Europe $120M Latin America $70M

Data from BOM(I counted and made the tabulation by excel) Doctor Strange Market Opening weekend Second weekend Mil Days # % - TDW % - TWS % - GOTG $ - AM Mil % - TDW % - TWS % - GOTG $ - AM U.K. $11.33 6 -18% 13% 6% 81% $4.31 -10% -6% -23% 10% France $5.80 5 -47% -4% -12% 34% $2.72 -32% -26% -20% 6% Germany $4.95 4 -40% 24% -30% 194% $3.60 -12% 41% -8% 240% Russia $2.96 3 -61% -62% -77% -37% $12.44 9% 315% 109% 549% Italy $2.67 4 -54% -34% -21% 19% $1.73 -20% -16% 11% 113% Spain $2.13 3 -44% -27% -29% 133% $1.20 -21% 15% 26% 117% Netherland $1.01 4 0% 41% -9% 5% $0.74 10% 39% 11% 207% Europe box office Dark World - $163m+ Winter Soldier - $116m+ Guardian of the Galaxy - $181m+ Ant-Man - $79m+