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Everything posted by Gavin Feng
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doubt Water Bridge could top Changjin. Unlike the expectations and gentle requirements for the first one before opening, most general audience are now knowing the maximum of the production - unfinished CGI, rough direction by three old co-directors, untrustworthy emotions (that's strange considering the movie is based on a real history). A bigger opening can be expected, but a new record for lifetime is in doubt.
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The reason why No Way Home become successful is exactly what Matrix 4 miss and why it fail: The necessity of big screen experience and the meaning of the movie itself. What No Way Home did before opening: a) Hyped the news of breaking up between Sony & Marvel in summer of 2019, letting audience realize how hard and precious it is to keep Spider Man being in MCU before making up. b) How enormous and massive the movie is going to be with the concept of multiverse. This kind of scale should belong to theaters. c) Bring something or some characters you always miss back by showing it in cinemas instead of trailers or streaming. What Matrix 4 did before debuting: a) Just telling you we were going to do a sequel while John Wick franchise became hits, making everything feel like the studio want to milk audience. b) Can't explain why this movie deserve to be seen in theaters. Great visual effects & fighting scenes? The trilogy had something the sequel could hardly top or achieve. Amazing concept or storytelling? But the cast and director said it would be a personal & love story...Since WB announced day-and-date release model, everything about this movie feels unattractive. c) Warner Bros. marketing department: "Hey look, this is Neo, the One. Worth to go cinema for nostalgia, right?" "Wait, what, you don't believe it's Neo? Why are you saying that? That's him. The one played by Keanu Reeves. At least you know Keanu, right?" "What did you say? John Wick?" "It's not Mr. Wick. I mean...Not that hairy, right?" "And you want to stay at home by seeing John Wick franchise in xmas? Come on, you have a Matrix sequel!" "You won't go cinema until John Wick 4? You mean you think JW4 is bigger than Matrix 4?" "I can't believe these shit. How fucking crazy you are!"
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Gavin Feng replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
will top gun 2 be that big? -
a) Record nothing doesn't mean flop. I think this is a logic that most people should not lose. Like I said days ago, any number around AIW is good and realistic($260M debut with conservative multiple). I know many people expect higher like $800M+ due to crazy opening & top-level CS & Xmas. But come on, we all know it could easily miss that milestone for some reasons that data and numbers couldn't really tell. We might not be able to tell why for now, but we will know some day in the future. b) I predict in the future, A+ grade movies will have worse legs than A grade movies on average for Marvel Studios. The opinion is based on a theory I couldn't tell right or wrong at this point: There is no big big difference between most MCU movies in terms of qualities. So if a MCU movie earn above-average grade (A+), it's most likely because it is a event thing (assembly stuff) instead of people think it's something like Citizen Kane. And the grade wouldn't really work as we think. The first Avengers got A+ because it was really a surprise. But for Endgame & No Way Home, people already had a expectation that was far far bigger than what they expected from the 2012 MCU movie.
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Post-pandemic, box office is getting K-shape recovery. In China, top three movies hit $700M or higher. But the best of the rest couldn’t even touch $250M. I expect North America would get more $600M-plus blockbusters in the next 12 months, but there is a possibility that none of 2022 movies would stay at $300~500M.
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Spiderman : No Way Home - Box office thread
Gavin Feng replied to LPLC's topic in International Box Office
look, what it is?