Brainiac5

May 10, 2017

1 minute ago, baumer said:

But if you are comparing Guardians of the Galaxy part 2 with Guardians of the Galaxy part one you have to take the exchange rates in the consideration.

No we are not gonna take Exchange rates into consideration.

We have Two films that made a billion this year, The exchange rate argument is flawed.

May 10, 2017

14 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Yep, 800M is good for the Guardian ^^

Vol. 3 will have a chance to pass 1 billion

Hopefully vol3 does hit the big B

May 10, 2017

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

It would have been a bigger bump but the exchang rates in a lot of international markets are worse than they were in 14.

I'm not to concern with exchange rates because they don't seem to be factored in for other films (sorry if That triggers anyone).

May 10, 2017

5 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

So the $ 350M is

Maybe...

Or Very close to it.

So I'm going 350/450=800w,not much of a bump from the first Gotg but atleast it's a bump.

May 10, 2017

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

Beauty and the Beast had one of its smaller drops when Fast and Furious part 8 opened.

Ok so that's good for one of the two weekends.

May 10, 2017

1 hour ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Best example of this is suicide squad. Had better legs than what looked on second weekend.

Let's not forget SUicide Squad didn't have a potential to face a 100 ow opener in its 3rd and 4th weekends.

I think that's something to take into consideration going forward.

May 10, 2017

3 minutes ago, stripe said:

I agree with Baumer. It's going to increase for sure.

My guess

Tuesday: 15% increase to 11.5M

Wednesday: 35% decrease to 7.5M

Thursday: 10% decrease to 6.75M

Friday: 150% increase to 17M

Saturday: 60% increase to 29M

Sunday: 35% decrease to 18.5M

Which means 64.5M second weekend. A 56% drop

246M 10 day gross

Slightly over SM3. In line with THG.

I think the percentages of age and gender break downs can be very telling as to who this film is attracting at the Theaters.

May 10, 2017

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Look at this year's movies. They all increase on Tuesday. Logan, Kong, BATB, PR etc. all showed good Tuesday increases. Cheap Tuesday has become bigger year by year.

We will just have to wait and see.

A slight Decrease isn't a bad thing really.

May 10, 2017

7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Even Avengers 1, decreased from Monday to Tuesday, but we will see in a few hours. For now, think a small increase/decrease.

I'm thinking it stays Flat but leaning slightly towards the decrease side.

May 10, 2017

23 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Still, only the smaller MCU solo movies like Strange and Ant-Man, and some sequels like TWS, throughout 2014-17 had those type of increases.

A 30% increase would be insane for GOTGv2 but it's an uphill battle with May Weekdays but totally doable for a beloved film.

May 10, 2017

32 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Looking back, Cinco de Mayo appears not to affect anything, IM3 had a normal Sunday (5/5/13 which was Cinco de Mayo) to Monday fall, AOU decreases slightly on Tuesday, like most Marvel May openers, CW had great previews too ($25M).

Just wondering,I only mentioned it because it was extremely big this year here in the south and even bigger on the east coast.

May 10, 2017

6 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

We didn't got an idea about SS legs until 4th weekend.

Atleast wait for the weekend no.!

Or maybe not, otherwise the thread will be boring!

Im not saying it's gonna have weak legs ,I'm am saying we need to set the standards for comic book films in general a little lower.

It seems every time a film comes out we are looking for 2.7x+ when we know that's hard to come by these now and days.

May 10, 2017

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Still, the main reason why CW did under a 2.3x multiple was mostly due to having to watch 6-8 films prior, which might have been a turnoff. From OW, GV2 has had one of the MCU best True Friday to Saturday jumps and a good Sunday drop.

That was a pretty good jump ?

Hopefully it wasn't because of that Mexican holiday on Friday everybody in the south celebrated and this year it was bigger for some reason...Cinco De Mayo

May 10, 2017

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Still if WOM is good enough, a movie even with May weekdays can do a decent multiple regardless of competition, such as The Avengers, Shrek 2, and Spider-Man. Not saying we should expect 2.5x+ multiple but it could happen.

Yeah let's do 5-10year old comparisons ?.

A lot of times when we get into multiplers we tend to get caught into the past and forget that good multiplers (2.5+)for these types of films are uncommon,especially when they open to big numbers over the smaller openers.

I think we should start to look for the standard for comic book films and set it at 2.2-2.4x with 2.2 being good and 2.4 being very good.

May 10, 2017

Just now, baumer said:

May weekdays means bigger weekends.

As I said before until two big openers in weekend #3and#4.

But I'm not gonna be a negative Nancy.

Anything over 2.2 is still good to me it's a sequel after all.

May 10, 2017

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

True, but remember this, Disney will probably do double features of GV2 with Pirates. Also note that both Logan, Kong, Beast, and Baby, all survived a very competitive March. With three of them competing for the family market and two of them competing for the male audience, and even when factoring in Spring Break, the most the country had was on Beast's OW. Each doing a 2.5x+ multiple. Again, second weekend drop will determine legs.

It's really the fact of May weekdays could stop it from getting there.

May 10, 2017

8 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Actually Avengers, IM3, AOU and CW decreased on Tuesday, I'd say if Guardians 2 increases it could be more helpful to decode.

I say if there's any increase it may be small givjne the fact that it's discount Tuesday also having work and school.

This film really needs to make All it can before competitors start to roll out.

I know we all are looking for a 2.4x+ but we have to understand later legs are the factor after the 2x is acquired.

POTC and WW could cut them short.

Sure better Weekend holds could help out but that's only gonna help for two weekends after that things Could get very interesting around here.

May 10, 2017

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

TWS also dropped 73.4%, along with Ultron. Again we'll know where Guardians 2 is heading on the second weekend. For now it's looking at $336M-$355M.

It also opens smaller so less money means less to earn towards the multipler.

May 10, 2017

17 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Remember IM1 dropped 73.4% for its first Monday. Let's wait for the second weekend to decide. If we get something around $66M, 2.7x could happen but for now thinking:

$146.5M/$365M (2.49x)

As I keep telling everyone the times has changed.

Hopefully this can follow the trend of IM1 but then again how many Marvel flims that have opened after The Avengers have done so?

May 10, 2017

18 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Only the US numbers have been updated. O/S w/e came in a bit higher than earlier estimates so $285m as of Sunday

Ok so Foreign update will come later ,got ya.

Im thinking 330-340mil domestic for this.

450-460 foreign.

May 10, 2017

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am amazed by folks saying monday drop was not good because sunday drop was better than norm. True leggy movies tend to hold really strong during 1st week bcos of spillovers and expands the audience base. Avengers had even better sunday drop and strong monday drop. 1st Trek also did it in May. TDK dropped 8% on sunday and 43% on monday(it was July). Generally if a movie is stronger than other holdovers then there is a sign that this is going to be leggy.

Guardians will have a normal sequel run. Definitely not going to be leggy.

2.24x would give it 328mil.

I believe it should get something in the 2.3-2.4 range.

On another note 441ww as of now how much did it add Internationally from Sunday until Tuesdays update?