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Brainiac5

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Posts posted by Brainiac5

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 hours ago, miketheavenger said:

    I still think the people predicting 140m+ OW and 400m+ total for WW are asking to be disappointed. It's happened so often on this site before and I feel people are getting ahead of themselves because of the reviews. Don't be disappointed if this makes Man of Steel numbers.

    Man of steel numbers are basically 300 domestic and 400 foreign which is a pretty damn good out come for Wonder Woman.

    • Like 1

    GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II | 473.9 M overseas ● 863.8 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

    Interestingly enough, in my country GotG2 will be one of the most successful CBMs ever in terms of admissions (quite a bit more than CW or IM3). One of the reasons for this might be that people here don't really perceive it as a CBM, but more like a sci-fi adventure/comedy. The again, it will wind up at about the same level as Avengers 1 and 2, so maybe it's something else.

    We know the exchange rates are bad.

     

    GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II | 473.9 M overseas ● 863.8 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

     

    I accepted it which is why I'm saying that no IM = no 1b. I'm not blaming ER like some other people cause bad ER didn't stop F8 and BatB from passing the mark with flying colors. GOTG is simply not connecting with OS like those movies and that's that. It's still a big hit. 

    Agreed,I really thought it would be big overseas in today's markets overseas.

    Only if this film connected to foreign audiences better my Billion dollar prediction would have come true.

    Its still a monster in the domestic market at least.

    Maybe Vol.3 can push for 450mil+ domestic and that way even Exchange rates won't stop it from getting there.

    The Panda's Extremely Poor Simple Linear Regression Analysis: Do YouTube Trailer Views Correlate With Higher Box Office Grosses?

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

     

    Women especially girls create A LOT of buzz on social media.  Just look at Beauty & The Beast, Hunger Games, Fifty Shades Of Grey or any of the Twilight movies. - or even how much they drove social media with Suicide Squad because of Harley Quinn.   Look at twitter or watch Tumblr and see how excited the core group - young women are for each film, tv show, actor, actress, music group etc. 

     

    The older audience is harder to track since they are not as engaged on social media so if the audience is skewing older that will be harder to track.

     

     

    Trailer views are great way to gauge interest - especially if one breaks them down by genre and one looks at how trailer views grow or diminish with new trailers or closer to the release of the film.   Also on YT looking at likes and numbers of comments is helpful.  Yes there are aberrations and it's not dispositive but it's a very good data source.

     

    Panda did a good breakdown of this - I want to say several months ago but it could be a year - time flies.

     

    It can be but not an exact measure.

    1mil people can view a trailer 20 times each and it will gain 20mil views. 

    Now there's a difference if you can say 100mil people viewed the trailer in 24hours rather than 100mil views.

    We have no clue if those views are a big portion of people or a few guys watching the trailer over and over.

    I understand that it can measure the Interest for a film but nothing that says it is accurate.

    The Panda's Extremely Poor Simple Linear Regression Analysis: Do YouTube Trailer Views Correlate With Higher Box Office Grosses?

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Brainiac5

    10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

     

     

    just not getting the same sense of excitement as Man of Steel or Suicide Squad. Trailer views are also well below it.  That's why I think it will open in the 80m range which would be fine

    :sadben:The new way to measure boxoffice .

     Congratulations to IT as it should be the highest grossing film in 2017.

    Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:


    The operative word is 'worthy'. Those movies don't stand a chance against Julia Robert's 90s romcoms. emoji16.png

    Maybe WAR films again or something. Or do we have another giant ship in the 1910s that sank. Just something different. I don't care if it's remake, reboot, revived or something totally new. Futuristic robotic semirealistic advance tech human something perhaps. Just different.

    I don't know, you tell me.

    Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk
     

    Every other thing they try to do rather it's a reboot or original story gets shit on by everyone .

    • Like 1

    Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Brainiac5

    15 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

     

    I think that it's certain that it will make more than $440M OS (which is what the original did) despite the negative FX environment. That signals a healthy increase in audience numbers in offshore markets. Remember also that comedies where language and cultural references are important (as in the case of GOTG2) tend to significantly underperform in non-Anglophone regions. I have been stressing this fact for a long time now. This affects movies such as this one or Star Wars. While Transformers, Pirates and F&F transcend linguistic/cultural barriers, hence the BO numbers we have been witnessing in recent years. Oh, and to answer your question, you are heavily overestimating GOTG2's potential. For your total to be achieved, you would need GOTG2 to make almost $500m domestic. 

     

    How?

    If the film is gonna end let's say 350 domestic and 450foreign  ,does the exchange rates equal to 550 foreign? If not then it never had a chance at a Billion.

    the only way we can say the film lost its chance is if it's final total after you take Exchange rates into consideration adjust for it to cross a Billion.

    IMHO it was never A Billion dollar film.

    although very successful.

    Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

     

    It's not about "excuses". It's about the USD value of overseas tickets sold. 

     

    Let's assume, for the sake of simplicity, that the rest of the world only uses euros. If the euro devalues by 20% versus the USD, then a movie will have to sell 20% more tickets just to make the same USD amount as its predecessor did. If a movie sells exactly the same tickets as its predecessor, then its cume when expressed in USD terms will be 20% lower than a movie released before the euro devaluation. 

     

    In short, since late 2014, OS grosses have been massively depressed by the strong dollar, or what comes to the same thing, weak euro/pound/yen/ruble/peso/crone etc etc etc...

     

    So, let's assume that GOTG2 had to sell tickets in an environment were the weighted average of currency values is 20% lower than it was for the original in 2014. As that movie made $440M OS, if its sequel now sells the exact same number of tickets in the exact same markets, then GOTG2 will make 440M x 0.8 = $352M 

     

    So, the simple truth is, that the exchange rates are a massive factor when it comes to OS BO. In the short and even mid-term, it's the most important factor by far. 

     

    Edit: A strong USD even depressed the domestic box-office since that includes the Canadian market which must be around 10% of the domestic total. Since the Canadian dollar has devalued by around 30% since 2014, then this simply means that the domestic BO has been depressed by around 3%. A not-negligible percentage. The degree to which Hollywood would love a weak USD cannot be overstated. 

    So in other words the most GOTGv2 was gonna do was 900-950 ww ?thats  extremely close but still not a Billion.

    Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

    Exchange rates aren't an excuse for why a movie doesn't reach 1B. 

     

     But if you want to compare how GOTG V2 is doing OS compared to GOTG, and you don't take XR into consideration, you're comparing apples to oranges.

    We can Take them into consideration but we can't say that it's really the problem when we have two films to cross a Billion already.

    As someone else said the overseas audience just isn't into space Oprah films.

    So the argument can be made that the film never had the fan base to cross a Billion anyway in 2017.

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