Brainiac5
-
Posts
2,998 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by Brainiac5
-
-
Just now, YourMother said:
$430M is absolute worst, $475M is absolute best.
So am gonna split the difference and say 450mil so we could be looking at 800-825ww.
-
3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
Similar to SW movie? Sci-fi?
So in other words we are looking at about 450-470os finish?
-
5 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
The Guardians have no appeal in the Asian and South American markets
What do you actually mean by "No appeal"?
-
3
-
-
1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:
Deadline updated numbers in another article 1:54am (PST)
Arthur: $14.4M
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 at $60M
Snatched with $16M
60m for GOTGv2 Is a 59% drop .That would be The same as Civil War last year ,if so we could see a Multiplier around the same or a little bit above it.
146.5x2.3=336
146.5x2.4=351,
One of these are our outcome.
-
3 minutes ago, baumer said:
Ultron, IM3 and Civil War all opened massively and all fell sharply. IMO, all three of those films were pretty bad.
I believe the audience was a little bigger for all of those films which could balance out to about he same.
I didn't like GOTGv2 and Maybe there's a more who feels the same.
-
1 minute ago, baumer said:
2.27 is shit. There's no other way to describe it. In fact, it's the lowest multiplier of any MCU movie since Iron Man came out. There's no other way to spin it. The multiplier sucked.
That would suck bit it's really ok the range of these films now and days.
2.2-2.4x.
-
17 minutes ago, baumer said:
I'm basing it on having a run similar to Winter Soldier.
And it is subjective. :Look, I'm sorry if we butted heads the other day. It wasn't my intention. I apologize if I came off as a dick. It wasn't my intention.
But I can assure you I am not a Marvel loonie. In fact I dislike more of the MCU than like. I just believe GoTG2 will have a run like WS did....hence the 45-47% drop next weekend.
I don't know what it will do In weekend #3 .All I can tell you is let's The Weeknd #2 numbers before we jump the gun.
Its all good man ,If we didn't have debates this place would be just as boring as F4.
Can you imagine coming here and falling asleep halfway through
-
1
-
-
Just now, baumer said:
Civil War fell that much because it sucked.
.That's Subjective
-
-
31 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Deadline is as well but they're always off. I don't see that at all. 55% is probably the best case scenario. But 58-60% is more probable.
I'm thinking 58%
-
51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
its quite predictable. I thought 40% otherwise it was looking at sub 50% 2nd weekend drop which would be impossible unless the movie is a juggernaut(which is rare for a sequel).
it will drop in high single digits again today.
Many here seem to think 50%-55% 2nd weekend drop.
-
15 minutes ago, YourMother said:
Civil War fought off Angry Birds and XMEN (both in the $100M-$155M range).
Ultron fought off PP2, Fury Road, and San Andress, all doing over $150M domestic
IM3 dealt with Gatsby, Trek 2, Fast 6, Hangover, and Epic, all of which did $100M-$230M.
Again second and third weekend holds determine it's total, remember you needed 5-6 films for Ultron, and 6-8 films for CW which could have been turnoff for the GA more so the latter than the former.
I'm talking about Two films possibly Doing 100dom o.w two weeks in a row.
Not lifetime grossers.
If we are gonna Bank things on strong weekend holds then we also have to take into consideration POTC and WW.
even if the two does 75Mil+ that could very well hurt the potential strong weekend holds in w.e #3 and #4.
Those two films will also have the full feel of summer as Gotg most likely will be losing a lot of screens Around that time.
-
3 minutes ago, YourMother said:
Civil War to Ultron:Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.
GV2 to G1 in comparison: PostTrak continues to report that 76% of all moviegoers are giving GOTG2 a definite thumbs up to their friends; that’s one point above GOTG‘s 75%. PostTrak updates their audience polls throughout the weekend and GO9TG2 is still strong among older men and women over 25 with 32% and 26%, respectively. Guys under 25 rep 25% of all moviegoers, while females of that age are at 18%. All this means is that Marvel fans are aging up, and that those who were under 25 when the first movie opened crossed over. Strong positive reactions among all four demos with M25+ (94%), M25- (93%), F25+ (91%) and F25- (88%). Disney shows that 72% adults came out for GOTG2, 19% families, and 9% teens. Fifty-four percent of all GOTG moviegoers were Caucasian, 19% Hispanic, 12% African American and 9% Asian. Imax hubs delivered $13M of GOTG2‘s weekend stateside with the large format exhibitor ranking in seven of the sequel’s top 10 locations. Thirty-nine percent of all PostTrak respondents said GOTG2 blew away their expectations compared to 32% on the original 2014 film.
Not the most reliable source but it could be a decent indicator.
Yeah thOse are good number However I'm not banking everything on stronger holds on the weekends. I'm just being optimistic as last year I thought we had a film that could do 450+but it ended up being 45mil shy?.That movie didn't face a potential two 100mil grossers in its 3rd and 4th week.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, YourMother said:
It for like Drive Ins Theaters.
How much more can something like that add to films Domestic run?.
8 minutes ago, YourMother said:I'd say best case scenario is a 2.55x which gives us $373.57M
Worst case is about a 2.3x which gives us $336.95M
2.55? You really think it can get that high as a best case senario?
-
Just now, YourMother said:
Second Weekend and Third Weekend is what determines where it'll end. Besides GV2 will have lots of double screenings with Pirates.
Having Double features are really unnecessary too be honest.
It could be a plus or an negative so far now I'm just going with the typical Mavel sequel Multipler.
Queston???
Why would Disney feel the need to The Double ???
Just curious to The ambition of it as it could open the door for some very good things in the future.
-
1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Sheesh. Aren't the weekday pretty much falling in line with the last few MCU early May releases? As in, Iron Man 3, Ultron and Civil War... Folks get weird around these parts. Guardians Vol. 2 is still very likely to gross $60M+ this upcoming weekend.
If The weekdays are the same can we expect the same Multipler???
If GOTGv2 does Civil wars Multipler of 2.27 it will land 332,577,936.08 however this could be lower by 5mil due to POTC and Wonder Woman.
Best case scenario is a 2.4 which will give it 351,624,249.6 (minus maybe 5mil or so).
Im gonna split the Difference here and say 2.3x=336,973,239.2
-
5 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:
Forbes projecting it to pass the 700M by the end of the week. No way this doesn't generate at least 100M the rest of way.
Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk
at 500ww right now I don't see how the film gets 700 Ww by the end of the week.
Maybe 630-650 unless more markets are opening up over the weekend.
-
1
-
-
7 hours ago, baumer said:
Youre being obtuse.
You surely know how to keep an argument going don't you?
Let me quote myself here,
"I'm leaving it alone".
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, MikeQ said:
You're just wrong, as people have been trying to point out, because I have seen quite a bit of discussion around exchange rates hurting overseas performances for films, particularly post-Brexit. It's not as if this has only suddenly come up now with Guardians. Perhaps you haven't been around to see or be part of these discussions.
Peace,
Mike
This is actually the first time I ever seen a talk about Exchange rates in any of the weekday numbers threads.
It may be true about that thread about Exchange rates but honestly this is the first time I ever heard of it.
-
41 minutes ago, Barnack said:
We did for all the time, everything I predicted that Guardian 2 would have a hard time to improve over Guardian 1 significantly worldwide, was by pointing out that Guardian 1 was released in august 2014, just before the exchange rate drop went really big, Guardian 1 performance would have been significantly lower with an october 2014 exchange rate, instead of August.
Everyone take it into account for every movie with big oversea BO, all of them.
It is useless to talk about exchange rate when comparing OS result of movie released with similar OS/ and DBO/WW ratio obviously.
I know it's a factor to consider.
I never go into a lot of threads around here and I only mentioned the exchange rates when someone else did.
-
8 minutes ago, JennaJ said:
Speak for yourself.
If you have issues with the factors some take into consideration with *certain* movies (as if we don't know which), maybe the thing to do is raise that issue during the relevant discussions.
The solution certainly isn't to try and dumb down discussions where this is relevant, and argue for ignorance.
So I'm arguing for ignorance?
If me saying 'we don't take Exchange rates into consideration for other films...'
is dumbing something down the bias is truly real around here.
like I said in my last post I'm leaving it along..
-
42 minutes ago, baumer said:
Well, actually, we do. All the time.
Yeah,when it suits your arguments.
But ok I'm leaving it along
-
39 minutes ago, daisyspring8 said:
FF8 could make much more than 1.2 billion if with the same exchange rate in 2015. Now it's not likely to beat BATB WW.
We all know that as I said before we don't talk about exchange rates for other films so we shouldn't for GOTGv2
-
7 minutes ago, DMan7 said:
And what other films are we talking about here?
Not gonna get into that here just making a point about the exchange rates argument.
Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Brainiac5
Edit