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Lancelot Gold

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    Thursday Numbers (Asgard): TLJ $19.5 J $15m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

    IW can do 500+.

    I2 imo will target TS3 on the high-end. Nemo was much bigger than I1 and Dory did 486. So at least going by that I2 doing 500+ seems very unlikely.

    Solo also unlikely. If it shows the same drop from SW8 that RO showed from SW7 it will target 380-385. So 425 could be the high-end.

    😂 DP2 may show at least an SM1 to SM2 like 7-8% drop. Even a 7-8% bump gives 390 odd, so 400 is highly unlikely, nevermind 500.

    Long shots indeed, but I was just saying that IF they could do it, it would have to be with those.

     

    Incredibles 2 is the only trailer where I've heard a large number of people clapping and cheering. Not just one or two like usual. Multiple different  times. Adults. And that was just a teaser. People in their early 20s seem to be in love with the Incredibles. 

    • Like 1

    Thursday Numbers (Asgard): TLJ $19.5 J $15m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

     

    That's a fun stat. I like it.

     

    Just had a look at TFA's numbers and man was it close. JW got that win by the skin of it's teeth.

    I remember following it and being on the edge of my seat!!

     

    16 minutes ago, a2knet said:

    Two films from the same studio doing 500+ in a year is a first.

     

    2015 could have been that year for Disney if Ultron had made it to 500 like most expected.

     

    2018 I don't see 2 films from a studio doing 500+.

     

    Disney has a shot with Infinity War, Incredibles 2, Solo, and dare I say...... Deadpool 2 😂😂

    • Like 1

    Thursday Numbers (Asgard): TLJ $19.5 J $15m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

    This is approx a 10.6% drop for TLJ. Slightly worse than drop of R1 of 7.2% on its Second Thursday, but TLJ also never had that monster 30% drop earlier in the week that R1 had on its post Xmas/Boxing Day run.

     

    Not sure what it says, but it's probably saying something.:)

    I'm procrastinating going to bed, so here is this. Do with it what you will. lol

     

    Through day 14, R1's drops had averaged -26.46% and TLJ averaged -26.39%, pretty close.

     

    R1's increases averaged +35.38% and TLJ averaged +29.48%

     

    So while R1 averaged better % increases, it also had slightly worse drops and of course, started at much lower numbers.

    • Like 1

    Thursday Numbers (Asgard): TLJ $19.5 J $15m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Sadly, with my spreadsheet being pretty damn close with 19.27m, it's broken for tomorrow. It is saying only 19.54m. So I'm going to give it a jump from Thursday of +6.6% based on other jumps vs R1 and go with 20.54m for Friday, using 19.27m for Thursday for now.

     

     

    I'm basing the +6.6% on the fact that R1's % increases have been about 26% higher than the TLJ's so far. R1 did +9% so I'm saying TLJ will do +6.6%. Not sure how the logic works, but it's the only thing I can come up with at the moment.

    Wednesday Numbers(27/12/17):TLJ $22m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

    Great TLJ number, i think it could stay flat this weekend... i wouldn't say $ 700M is dead, January could surprise 

     

    I'm good with Coco numbers, competition + losing theaters hurt this movie really bad, but it will still gross $ + 200M, which is what i always wanted, so i'm fine, hoping for $ 800M worldwide

    I'm hoping that 3.2x is still alive. The sliver of hope that I had for my original 3.69x is gone. I dared to live the dream 😂

    • Like 1

    Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by lancelot123

    13 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

    It wouldn't at all surprise me if this movie TLJ fails to pass all of the Transformers movies on the worldwide box office chart, the highest of which is at number 15.

     

    Is this "excellent" by any stretch of the imagination?

     

    lolwut? TLJ is going to breeze into the top 10 and has a good shot at 4th and 5th 8th

    Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by lancelot123

    9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

    I don’t think there’s any reason to believe Thursday falls much from Wednesday but that Wed is too high IMO. It’s not going to be that high. Thursday number may be right.

     

    But why would the movie decrease fairly substantially on Saturday?! That makes no sense hahaha. Also Sunday looks ok to me numerically but totally wrong by drop. It’ll fall 30-40% from Saturday because of NYE. 

    I think that it's showing Saturday drop because R1 did since it was NYE.

     

    Also, forgot to add that it's currently predicting 664m for its final total. I like that prediction since it preserves the above 3.0x multiplier.

    Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

    I do find it odd that the only number that was pointed at was the 630, /when I said most predictions had it at 630-720. meaning 630 as a worse case scenario, anything past 730 would be overperforming in my views.

    It's extremely rare for a December movie to have below a 3.0x multiple. 660 is what the worst case scenario should be. Less isn't horrible, just disappointing and a aberration. 

    • Like 1

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

    Feeling Venom will be Sony’s next breakout. Feeling Logan numbers could happen.

    Sony should cancel Venom. I just don't see it working without it being in the MCU like Spider-Man.

     

    I wouldn't be shocked if Into the Spider-verse made more than Venom. In fact, I'm expecting it.

    • Like 1

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

    You of course are right, I should have wrote it a bit different, because I meant direct sequels and TFA, JW are basically new starters, I don't really need to know what happened in the other films to understand those, which especially is true for JW.

     

    That still would mean that there were movies that increased.

    You're right, I had a friend watch Civil War without seeing previous Marvel movies, except the first Avengers. Hadn't even seen Winter Soldier.  I slapped him after finding out, but he still really enjoyed it. It's just not something I'd recommend everyone or anyone do, haha.

     

    JW I can understand that they might not have seen the first ones, even though that just says they make bad life choices 😂😂. People that have never seen at least ep 4-6 and see TFA just baffle me to no end.

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

    What Do you consider The Hunger Games, because Catching Fire increased from The Hunger Games, actually the only Sequel to increase from a first film that grossed more than 400 Mio $.

    TFA and JW are both sequels that made more than previous films in the series that themselves made over 400m

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, DARth DAR said:

    Like I mentioned earlier the only seats I could find four together was a 9:30 am showing.  Everything else was close to a sellout or scattered front row

    Early showings are booking up faster around here. Out of 16 showings at one place, only the 3 latest showings do you have hope for more than one person, if you don't want the front row. I almost wonder why they even bother with that front row.

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