Lancelot Gold
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Posts posted by Lancelot Gold
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10 minutes ago, hw64 said:
Lower than Avatar already in the second weekend.
Do you honestly think that TLJ would have still done worse than Avatar if this Christmas was on Friday?
Question for other forum people. Surely this can have better legs to make up for the bad holiday placements, right? Even with drops like this, there's nothing stopping it from legging out to 4x. I don't think it will go that high, just using it as a example.
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2 hours ago, Porthos said:
Presuming this at all accurate, incredibly happy to be proven wrong on the Friday bump.
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Just wait for the +30% Saturday! 😛
I am one with over avatar and over avatar is one with me. 😂
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With the way it's been somewhat close to JW's ups and downs % wise, I'm thinking +30% for Saturday. Won't follow JW after Saturday unfortunately.
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With my original +64% jump for Friday being "close", I'm bumping Saturday up above my original +35% to +38%. Thinking somewhere between 35% and 40%, so I'm splitting the difference. Basing my numbers off JW and TFA. Can't use those for Sunday though.
That 110m 6-day estimate from Deadline really had me thinking pessimistically.
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28 minutes ago, hw64 said:
Incomparable. TLJ opened to $220m; the biggest opener there is sub-$35m.
Opening weekend does not seem to greatly effect December movies multiplier though. Low, high, both way more often then not have over 3x
Yeah, data on movies over 200m OW is limited, but that doesn't mean that we should ignore a obvious trend.
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26 minutes ago, Taruseth said:
According to BOM only:
Scream 2 (32.9 / 101.3 Mio$ =>3.08x)
The Day the Earth Stood Still (30,5 / 79,4 Mio $ => 2.6x)
The Golden Compass (25.8 / 70.1 Mio $ => 2.7x)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (24.1 / 65 Mil $ =>2.7x)
Star Trek: Insurrection (22.1 / 70.2 Mio $ => 3.18x)
Beavis and Butt-Head Do America (Why would anyone name a movie like this ?!?) (20.1 / 63.1 Mio $ => 3.14x)
and of course Star Trek: Nemesis (18.5 / 43.3 Mio $ => 2.34x)
Krampus (16.3 / 42.7 Mio $ => 2.6x)
the others opened below 13 Mio $. and finished below 31 Mio$.
Now I'm pretty sure everyone would agree that TLJ is better than all those, correct? WOM, critics, exit polling, sane people 😂
Or do people really hate it that badly?
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13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
I think it gets over 700, but something under that number is not impossible.
If the film grosses 28-29% more than Rogue One the rest of the way, it finishes at $695m. This is not an impossible scenario. Needs exactly a 30% lead the rest of the way to reach $700m. Needs about 52.7% lead the rest of the way to reach your $770m prediction. Seems very difficult to me.
What big December movie has gone below 3.2x? I'm sure they exist, just haven't found it yet. I'll look more when I'm home on my desktop.
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4 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:
IMO Netflix is likely going to kill off the mid-size film being profitable in theatres.
Look out DC! 😂
2 hours ago, Brainbug said:Agreed. That 3,77 multiplier of TFA is still goddamn unbelievable. A once-in a lifetime performance.
Besides that, Empires first run adjusts to 702M per BOM. So TLJ is in good company and still has a very good chance to gross a lot more than that. Furthermore, the 2nd parts of SW Trilogys are the lowest-grossing anyways, so a huge decline in raw numbers should have been expected anyway.
Looking past December movies, every year and especially 2006, it's seems impossible for this to have less than 3.2x or 700m. I'm leaning more towards 3.5x with 770m, but that's certainly not the floor like 700m is, so I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen.
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I changed some of my numbers after some research. Being more pessimistic about Christmas Eve and slightly more with other days. Maybe too pessimistic? I'm still well over Deadline's 110m 6-day so I think I'm still being too optimistic. Maybe Friday should only be +40%? That still gives a 148.61m 6-day. Would be curious to see Deadline's daily number predictions.
Thursday 18.10m [296.81]
Friday 28.96m (+60%) [325.77]
Saturday 37.65m (+30%) [363.42]
Sunday 22.59m (-40%) [386.01]
Monday 40.66m (+80%) [426.67]
3 Day 89.20
4 Day 129.86
5 Day 147.96
6 Day 164.85
Not sure about Tuesday yet. I need to research more. Difficult with the days being different.
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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:
TFA's Thursday was Christmas Eve, which is always a big drop. Rogue One's Wednesday drop was 14.9% and Last Jedi's Wednesday drop was 16.6%.
Oops, my bad, mixed up my days. I think I was looking at either Tuesday's drop or the super early estimate for Thursday, for Wed's drop.
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31 minutes ago, grim22 said:
A 7% increase on Wednesday seems to be on the lower side. Due to Christmas Eve on Sunday, there is a chance TLJ 2nd weekend can be under Rogue One's 2nd weekend with that Thursday number. The 4 day will belong to TLJ but there can definitely be a fight for the 3-day with RO.
Am I looking at the numbers wrong, cause +7% doesn't seem horrible.
TFA was -27.9%
R1 with +12.1%
but that also had a much worse Wed drop.(mixed up days)I Am Legend was +0.7%
Hobbit 1 +4.5%
Hobbit 2 +3.9%
Seems to be helping to keep the 3.5x or more multiplier alive, which all those movies did.
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2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:
still the diehard fans would see a sw film 5+, now they may see it 2 times or less
Never made it past 3 times for one movie while in theaters myself. Not because I didn't want to, just time and money.
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8 hours ago, lancelot123 said:
Posted this in Wednesday thread, but it's better being here.
Assuming 17.5 is close for Thursday, I'll undercut and assume 17 for these predictions.
Thursday 17.0
Friday 27.88 (+64%)
Saturday 37.64 (+35%)
Sunday 30 (-20%)
Monday 54 (+80%)
2@EmpireCity These look like they have a chance, or am I way off? Christmas Day and Eve were the hardest ones for me to come up with a % since there isn't a lot of data. Used JW and TFA to help, with R1 too maybe. Been a few hours and I was doing it at work on scratch paper so I forget, haha.
Before 17.5 was estimated for Thursday, I was looking between -8% to +2% based on what I was seeing with the other movies. Not exactly a small range, lol.
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5 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:
Marvel movies arguably did reach their peak with The Avengers. But credit to them they have found ways to reinvent themselves a little bit and find creative ways so that not every movie looks and feels the same. Infinity War has a chance to reach peak levels.
But a couple things as we look to the future. So far they have not had to recast Stark and Cap. Eventually they will have to do that. And that will be challenging maybe more than then what Star Wars is facing.
People laugh at DC for getting Justice League wrong but this is the 3rd or 4th time now for Batman. They've drank from that well for decades. For the most part, it's worked out very well.
Disney will face new challenges for both Star Wars and Marvel over the next 5 years and it'll be interesting to see where they go with those properties.
With the Fox purchase, they don't need Tony Stark and Steve Rogers anymore. Tony can become a background character and Bucky can take over for Cap.
They're also far from their peak. Captain America, Thor, and Guardian movies show us that, each sequel increasing from the previous movie. I guarantee that Doctor Strange 2 will increase even though it hasn't been announced. I'll admit, Antman 2 will be interesting to see if they can hold the streak.
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7 minutes ago, La Binoche said:
Of course less and less people will give a fuck about Star Wars as Disney shits out a new one every year.
Just like Marvel movies... oh... wait...
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18 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:
Seeing Star Wars again today, I have to pick up slack for all the GA asking for refunds!
Going to try for #3 on Christmas Eve.
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Look at past December openers. There is no way this gets less than a multiplier of 3.2x.
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10 minutes ago, hw64 said:
And what are you basing these figures on?
Just looking at your Christmas Day figure alone brings up red flags. TFA's Christmas Day was only $49m, and TLJ is running further and further behind TFA each day.
Combination of JW and TFA. Figured Christmas Day will be somewhere between +60-80% and went with 80.
It's been behaving similar to JW so far, except TLJ's Thursday looks better. The weekend is going to be rough to predict so I compared JW to TFA to get a prediction.
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Just now, WrathOfHan said:
That Sunday drop is about 30% too low.
TFA dropped 27% on Christmas eve.
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Posted this in Wednesday thread, but it's better being here.
Assuming Deadline is close with 17.5 for Thursday, I'll undercut and assume 17 for these predictions.
Thursday 17.0
Friday 27.88 (+64%)
Saturday 37.64 (+35%)
Sunday 30 (-20%)
Monday 54 (+80%)
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Assuming Deadline is close with 17.5 for Thursday, I'll undercut and assume 17 for these predictions.
Thursday 17.0
Friday 27.88 (+64%)
Saturday 37.64 (+35%)
Sunday 30 (-20%)
Monday 54 (+80%)
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Would you call me crazy if I said it could remain even or drop by up to 10% and still insist that it's legs will take it above 680m?
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2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Hmmm, those Wed-Christmas 6 day numbers seem a bit off in comparison for TLJ and Jumanji.
Am I calculating this right?
TLJ is 2.27 -2.3 bigger on Wed but projected to only do about 1.85 -2 x better over the 6 day?
For TLJ to just do $110m over 6 days it would only do about $60m or even less over the w/e.
Yeah, too low for sure. 110m puts it under R1 that did 113m from the 20th through the 25th. Not apples to apples, but still.
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11 minutes ago, REC said:
So lagging just a bit behind TFA they claim.
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4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Above Avengers and below TFA 😂
But seriously, still too early to see its legs I think since December movies can have some crazy ones. Extremely rare for a December movie to fall below 3x, which should put if over Titanic.