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Everything posted by Lancelot Gold
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You're right, I had a friend watch Civil War without seeing previous Marvel movies, except the first Avengers. Hadn't even seen Winter Soldier. I slapped him after finding out, but he still really enjoyed it. It's just not something I'd recommend everyone or anyone do, haha. JW I can understand that they might not have seen the first ones, even though that just says they make bad life choices 😂😂. People that have never seen at least ep 4-6 and see TFA just baffle me to no end.
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Do you honestly think that TLJ would have still done worse than Avatar if this Christmas was on Friday? Question for other forum people. Surely this can have better legs to make up for the bad holiday placements, right? Even with drops like this, there's nothing stopping it from legging out to 4x. I don't think it will go that high, just using it as a example.
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With my original +64% jump for Friday being "close", I'm bumping Saturday up above my original +35% to +38%. Thinking somewhere between 35% and 40%, so I'm splitting the difference. Basing my numbers off JW and TFA. Can't use those for Sunday though. That 110m 6-day estimate from Deadline really had me thinking pessimistically.
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Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M
Lancelot Gold replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Opening weekend does not seem to greatly effect December movies multiplier though. Low, high, both way more often then not have over 3x Yeah, data on movies over 200m OW is limited, but that doesn't mean that we should ignore a obvious trend. -
Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M
Lancelot Gold replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Now I'm pretty sure everyone would agree that TLJ is better than all those, correct? WOM, critics, exit polling, sane people 😂 Or do people really hate it that badly? -
Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M
Lancelot Gold replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
What big December movie has gone below 3.2x? I'm sure they exist, just haven't found it yet. I'll look more when I'm home on my desktop. -
Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M
Lancelot Gold replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Look out DC! 😂 Looking past December movies, every year and especially 2006, it's seems impossible for this to have less than 3.2x or 700m. I'm leaning more towards 3.5x with 770m, but that's certainly not the floor like 700m is, so I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen. -
Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M
Lancelot Gold replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I changed some of my numbers after some research. Being more pessimistic about Christmas Eve and slightly more with other days. Maybe too pessimistic? I'm still well over Deadline's 110m 6-day so I think I'm still being too optimistic. Maybe Friday should only be +40%? That still gives a 148.61m 6-day. Would be curious to see Deadline's daily number predictions. Thursday 18.10m [296.81] Friday 28.96m (+60%) [325.77] Saturday 37.65m (+30%) [363.42] Sunday 22.59m (-40%) [386.01] Monday 40.66m (+80%) [426.67] 3 Day 89.20 4 Day 129.86 5 Day 147.96 6 Day 164.85 Not sure about Tuesday yet. I need to research more. Difficult with the days being different. -
Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M
Lancelot Gold replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Oops, my bad, mixed up my days. I think I was looking at either Tuesday's drop or the super early estimate for Thursday, for Wed's drop.