If Moana managed to drop 31% against a $155m Star Wars opener I don't see why Coco has to collapse over 50% against a $200m+ one. Also in 2006 Happy Feet (which is your best comparison here for Christmas/NY weekends) increased 48% on the Dec 29-31 weekend.
Not really surprising cause it's got 80 minutes of beautifully shot footage of cats but Kedi is 100% the feel-good movie of the year. Cats are the best.