Stewart
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Posts posted by Stewart
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2 minutes ago, Menor said:
I don't get why there's been so little marketing for Spider-man. At this point in release was when a lot of TV spots started getting released for CM, starting with the Super Bowl spot which kicked off a big bump in presales. I haven't seen the same for FFH.
Partially could be release schedule as Sony is busy with MIB and Disney with TS4.
But probably the biggest thing is that this is not released by Disney. Sony is doing the marketing for this which would explain why the run-up is different.
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4 minutes ago, Brinatico said:
There is some markets out there to open yet.
"some markets" == basically nothing...
Kuwait 4 June 2019 Saudi Arabia 5 June 2019 Poland 14 June 2019 Spain 21 June 2019 Kuwait + Saudi + Poland < $1m
Spain might do a bit better, though given how rest of Western Europe has gone...
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3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
Dark Phoenix
Last 7 Days (12-6)
28% of Venom (22.3M)
50% of Godzilla (24.3M)
85% of Glass (34.4M 3-Day, 39.6M 4-Day)
64% of Shazam (34.5M)
Day 18-6
40% of Godzilla (19.8M)
76% of Shazam (40.5M)
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6 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:
Wat? Ready Player One opened at 181M and went all the way to 582M. I know Dark Phoenix is coming and Aladdin is competition too, but how in the hell wouldn't it reach 450-500M at the very least?
Anyway, Europe disappointing, but China did well, so did Japan, hopefully it can hold well despite opening low in other markets. It's clear though that there is a cap to Kaiju films, even Kong ended at 580M+. I'm thinking maybe that Godzilla Vs Kong could perhaps get people even more excited and push to 600M+.
Generally European markets are the ones with long legs, like Germany, France, Italy etc... (but still nothing like Japan)
The fact that it's disappointed in those markets automatically reduces its legs quite a lot.
iirc RPO did quite well in Europe thanks to Spielberg, therefore drawing that conclusion to be invalid.
Also Japan saw a much larger drop on Sunday than most other movies. Japan's Sundays are usually flat or bigger from Saturday, though with the National Discount Day on Saturday, this skews things attendance wise. But comparatively, KOTM dropped about 35% on Sunday whereas AEG dropped 20%. Pika (which skews quite young) dropped ~27% in attendance, which makes sense since family movies generally see a much bigger increase on discount days.
It's clear KOTM was front loaded, whether there's WOM at all to counteract is yet to be seen.
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Just now, titanic2187 said:
Thurs + Wed, not many country opened the movie on Wed, maybe only France. The impact will be minimal
UK and SK did as well
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1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:
i doubt it can drop from Thursday, there are handful of new opening in many countries on friday. And with Saturday a holiday, how can it drop from thursday? That will be horrible.
Remember that Thursday includes Wednesday too though.
Wait, was the 12.7m Thursday only or Thurs+Weds?
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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
But i don't know how they get that 31.4m if the OS total is 48.2m through Friday.
48.2-18-2.2=28m, through thursday it got 12.7m, the real Friday OS-CH-Jp should be 15.3m+18m+2.2= 35,5m
Normally they adjust as they go.
So 31.4m is Friday estimate and 48.2m is what's currently estimated through Friday.
It essentially means up to Thursday was adjusted up to 16.8m. I think Charlie (?) mentioned before that the daily estimates don't line up because they'll keep adjusting as more accurate estimates come in.
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Just now, Minnale101 said:
If that’s the case. Legs will be pretty bad imo
It seems likely so at the moment. Also noticed RT audience is gradually dropping too, so could be a similar problem going on in NA and worldwide too maybe.
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3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:
Godzilla dropped from 9.0 to 8.6 in Maoyan in a day ?
Potentially yesterday was primarily fans, today during Children's Day more general audience came and watched it and didn't like it?
All I can think of.
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1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:
GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS
$31.4M Overseas Friday Estimate (75 Markets / Includes $18M China and $2.2M Japan)
$48.2M Overseas Total through Friday
-- Excludes $30M China Flash Estimates for Saturday#Godzilla #KingOfTheMonsters #BoxOfficeat first I thought WOW! That's good.
Then I realised it includes China's Friday
So 11.2m from OS-C-J, and 16.8m up to Thursday. That feels like a big drop. Maybe it picks up on Saturday.
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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:
3500+ for Dark Phoenix.
Whoops! Completely missed Phoenix, probably because there was no talk about SLOP2, only comps.
Thanks, makes a bit more sense now
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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-quentin-tarantino/
Once Upon a Time: 50m / 165m
Lots updated too, so will put full table in spoiler. Notably TS4 sees a 29% increase to 151m / 495m.
SpoilerRelease Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor 6/7/2019 Dark Phoenix $50,000,000 $118,000,000 3,500 Fox 6/7/2019 Late Night n/a n/a n/a Amazon Studios 6/7/2019 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $68,000,000 -3% $238,000,000 -3% 4,400 Universal 6/14/2019 Men In Black International $41,000,000 5% $112,500,000 5% 4,000 Sony / Columbia 6/14/2019 Shaft (2019) $24,000,000 -14% $69,000,000 -14% 3,300 Warner Bros. 6/21/2019 Anna $6,000,000 NEW $17,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit 6/21/2019 Child’s Play (2019) $18,000,000 6% $42,500,000 Orion Pictures 6/21/2019 Toy Story 4 $151,000,000 29% $495,000,000 27% Disney / Pixar 6/26/2019 Annabelle Comes Home $31,000,000 $101,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line 6/28/2019 Yesterday n/a n/a Universal 7/2/2019 Spider-Man: Far from Home $120,000,000 $405,000,000 Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios 7/3/2019 Midsommar n/a n/a A24 7/12/2019 Crawl $18,000,000 $47,000,000 Paramount 7/12/2019 Stuber $17,500,000 $65,000,000 Fox 7/19/2019 The Lion King (2019) $201,000,000 $650,000,000 Disney 7/26/2019 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a n/a STX 7/26/2019 Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood $50,000,000 NEW $165,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia -
16 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
With these weak presales and a low TC estimate, we could be in for something ugly.
Where was the low TC estimate? Everywhere I'm seeing points to 4,400 which would be fantastic
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6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Looking at mimiron. Fri to fri drop looks bad for Endgame at usual locations. Looking at 58% drop for Japan. it should recover over the weekend as saturday is discount ticket day. But at this point it can stop its run and already its amazing number.
Thankfully it recovered, only 50% now, which is expected with Zilla, though will do better drop on weekend I suspect. Pikachu down similarly also, so not Endgame's fault.
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Just now, Olive said:
OD about 40% of Endgame.
Ouch. So that ends up with like ¥400m 2-day OW, would be #1 at least, but that's not great. 2014 did 2.23m adm. via Corpse, assuming a fairly high ATP gets somewhere around ¥3-3.5b for 2014.
This could end up missing ¥2b if WOM is not good. Looks like another market with a big decline from 2014. Though this is only OD, so still chance for redemption.
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5 minutes ago, Olive said:
It's very presale-heavy, may end up only 55% of Conan 22 OD, but ticket price will be higher.
I don't think Conan is the best thing to compare to.
iirc locals perform poorly on Friday's compared to the weekend as it's relatively new, whereas HWD's usually do well on Friday.
Better comparison might be Endgame, as that was presale heavy too and Hollywood. (Only for % though, won't match absolutes)
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1 minute ago, imbruglia said:
CGV 18:20
1. Parasite - 248k
2. Aladdin - 48k
3. The Gangster, The Cop, The Devil - 14k
4. Godzilla - 13kAladdin again will pass first Friday's number. Amazing result again.
yesterday's showing was -40% from opening day, still passed it.. lol
My god that Godzilla number
Looks like Parasite might hold flat or even increase from yesterday
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1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:
Trailer track is usually right
so anywhere between 6pm to 9pm pst
Thank you!
So anywhere from 2 till 5am in UK, guess I'm going to bed then
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Just saw somebody say that a trailer is expected tonight - what time actually is that? (include timezone as well please)
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2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
Forgot to post this before, but it's not very wise to compare movies that are two years apart. Online ticket sales have been growing year after year, so outside of maybe last year, it's usually unwise to look at 2017 data and say, "oh yeah, this 2019 movie's gonna be big". Of course doing better than Incredibles 2 is very very good
I know
But despite being 2.5 years apart, even being at the same level given the other factors I mentioned makes it at least worthwhile. Especially given we have actual figures from MTC for BATB, hence why I tagged Wang.
Always good to mention though as I probably should have in my post, especially for those new to BO tracking.
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1 minute ago, Tinalera said:
Has there been anything in marketing thats suggested this will be the final one? I know i read little bits that hanks and co were very emotional about after reading final dialogue.
Toy Story seems to have that "evergreen" type of nature where people love the characters and it does well merchandise wise. It wouldnt surprise me if it did 200 million its opening weekend...it has that type of love ( it will be an interesting comparison vs frozen 2 another blockbuster)
Think I saw somewhere that this is Hanks' last Toy Story, though that doesn't necessarily mean they won't pay up to make more.
Though given this series is over 25 years old at some point, with much the same cast, it's not all that surprising if it is the end.
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Just now, Claudio said:
If TS4 really breaks out with $200M , will it has some kind of effect to TLK opening and total ??? Given they both are 4-quad movie and could hurt each other especially when they come out just 1 month apart. I think it will.
Logically, you'd think it might be affected somewhat.
But Disney seems to defy logic this year, so probably just increase the predictions for TLK instead.
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@Shawn gonna be real interesting seeing the update to TS4 now the non-Pro tracking is out. At this rate your LRT is looking very small
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-lion-king/
6/21/2019 Toy Story 4 $117,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney / Pixar That 390 could be done by 2nd weekend at this point
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1 minute ago, Morieris said:
We interrupt this grammar lesson to present;
That's a very pointy mountain!
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UK Box Office Thread
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Stewart
top 5 this week:
So Pika did around £2m this week during Half Term, Rocketman did solid too, SLOP2 made a real recovery, as expected with the HT. But Aladdin is just phenomenal.
Then you get Zilla... just wow 🤦🏻♂️
EDIT: for comparison, Godzilla opened with £6.4m in the UK on its way to a £17.2m run. So Zilla 2 is down 64% from Zilla 1... Utterly shameful tbh. Even if you account for the Wed/Thurs too it's still down 45%...