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Stewart

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Posts posted by Stewart

    Godzilla: King of the Monsters OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

     

    Careful id say. Godzilla 2014 earned only 250,8M OS-C and Kong: SK did 230,5M, so a bit less. I woudnt expect such a big increase to 300M OS-C just yet. A more realisitic target would be the 250M of G14. So assuming 70M OW from China, more like a 100M OW from OS-China and a 60M DOM OW (which looks more likely than 70M right now) = 230M WW OW would be my guess.

    Makes sense, hadn't really looked at before, was just spitballing the 300m figure. 

     

    So 230 WW OW, seems fairly decent. Looking closer by the day as to who will win between Godzilla or Aladdin!

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Stewart

    5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

    The marketing for SLOP2 doesn't seem that great this time around.

    Not sure my audiences have agreed with that. The ~5 maybe 6 times I've been in the theatre and SLOP2 trailer has played, it's always had a fairly distinct response of chatter and excitement from youths. 

     

    In comparison Aladdin usually got a few murmurs and Toy Story 4 was a mixed bag (in Endgame for example there was big chatter, in kids movies not so much). I have a suspicion that TS4 is gonna skew older than people might think.

     

    EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying your statement is inherently wrong. Simply stating that anecdotes from my corner of the world don't support your statement. Whether my audiences are representative or outliers I don't know.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

    Final Unofficial Comp Check. Don't blame 'the system' if it's off.

     

    (ALL OF THESE FILMS HAD 3D SO ADJUST DOWNWARDS)

     

    Wick 3          3223 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+1148 for the day) (+292 since 4pm)

    ----

    Wick 3 (adj)  2782 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+976 for the day)

    JW:FK            6228 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+2036 for the day) 

    Solo:             5789 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+911 for the day)

     

    A JW:FK comp     gives 6.83m

    A Solo  comp      gives 6.78m

    A Venom comp* gives 6.53m

    * Math not given due to different adj

     

    There HAS to be an adj for 3D, however.  So let's say 5.75m to 6.25m.  

     

    That's an ad-hoc adj though, as I didn't run any 3D comps to see how many tickets are affected by that.  Might be overcompensating here, though.  

     

    On the other hand, kinda worried I might be over-estimating it.  But that number from @captainwondyful makes me think, perhaps not. 

     

    Be interested to see what it is when all is said and done.

    Say it hits 6m dead on, do you think a 10x is still possible, or is the precedence on 7pm shows showing signs of front loading?

     

    I assume with 6m, 50m is extremely likely and 60m is possible right?

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

    It wasn't until I got to this point that I realized you were talking about Dark Phoenix and not Detective Pikachu (or Deadpool for that matter).

     

    ...

     

    Folks, I think we might need an intervention when it comes to this thread and its habit of reducing all movies to its initials. :lol:

    I had the same problem!

     

    ---

     

    A thought though, how about XDP for Dark Phoenix to signify X-Men? Then we already (somehow forum and reddit wide) decided on Pika Pika for Detective Pikachu.

     

    ---

     

    My other problem is whenever people type "JW3", I always think initially "It's a little early for Jurassic World 3 talk..." only to realise it's about Wick. I'm sure @Brainbug has the exact same issue :lol:

    • Like 1
    • Disbelief 1

    Mexico Box Office | Good holds across the board! Apes go back on top; $19M total for Garfield

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

    This weekend's scheduling is very strange: Pika-Pika has lost the 4D and PLFs, instead they're going to be shared by Endgame and John Wick 3. But then Endgame is losing IMAX screens to Pika-Pika. 

     

    Overall this week most of titles are very close on screen count. Endgame and Pikachu at 1,200+ screens. Dulce Familia, John Wick 3, Brightburn and A Dog's Journey at 800+ screens each. 

    This actually makes a bit of sense, I think in Japan Pika is getting IMAX this weekend as well iirc.

     

    So perhaps IMAX has a deal that gets Pika the screens this weekend, due to Endgame hogging? Then Cinemas would take away Pika's other PLFs in favour of Wick as that's the new release?

     

    Maybe this is nonsensical speculation, but I can see a flicker of logic somewhere there :P

    Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Cookson said:

     Why so early? That’s basically a totally different release date unless the totals for the showings arent included in the actual box office totals

    Others have done it also in the past. I imagine there will be a restriction on how many showings each theatre are allowed, or perhaps a restriction on which theatres are even allowed to show it.

     

    It should be added to actual box office, since people still paid and saw the movie. 

     

    It's just used to build hype and wom. If the showings are large enough we may even get an early Maoyan or Douban score from it.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

    CM was at 1.8 on Jan 10 after starting sales Jan 7, so definitely outpacing FFH a bit for now.    

     

    That said, I feel like there’s a high chance that opening in a 6-day window of summer skews how much urgency people feel toward prepurchasing.

    Also to add to that, when CM released tickets there was very few other movies people were spending money on.

     

    FFH has to deal with people buying tickets for Pika, EG, KOTM, Aladdin, heck even Wick by the looks of it. All of which were much bigger.

     

    This doesn't mean people aren't going to go watch FFH, simply that people aren't going to prebuy tickets to the 6th next movie they see.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Menor said:

    I will add to the people who think G2 may be more walkup-based than Aladdin. Beauty and the Beast was very presale-heavy, on the level of a CBM (its OW/PS ratio was the same as Guardians 2, which was a highly anticipated sequel). The nostalgia created by the 90s animated classics makes these remakes have a built-in fanbase in the same way a CBM/franchise movie does. And if the movie is good, it makes no sense to release the embargo this late (not like spoilers are gonna be a thing), so I think there's a high likelihood of poor reviews.

    For me the important thing now is whether we're looking at average reviews (~50%) or absolute shit reviews (<15%). The latter will cause it to have disastrous legs, the former will at least be some saving grace. 

    • Like 2

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    In a twisty turn of events, despite falling short in US, Pikachu actually defeated Thanos over here! I think this is a very good opening personally. Not bad for The Hustle either, bigger than Long Shot OW.

     

    Rank Film  (Distributor) Three-day gross (May 10-12) Total gross to date  Week
    1 Pokémon Detective Pikachu (Warner Bros) £4.9m £4.9m 1
    2  Avengers: Endgame £4.4m £80.4m 3
    3  The Hustle (Universal) £1m £1m 1
    4  Long Shot (Lionsgate) £411,308 £1.9m 2
    5 The Curse Of La Llorona (Warner Bros) £243,000 £1.2m 2

     

    Frozen II | Nov 22 2019 | 2nd Most Profitable Movie of 2019. Disney does it again! | Documentary series coming to D+ June 26

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

    I'd be surprised. The Tonys/Toy Story 4 are too compatible to pass on debuting a new glimpse at the movie.

    That lines up perfectly actually.

     

    iirc trailers need 2 weeks before debutting in theatres, so with TS4 on 21st June, the trailer needs to be made and rated for 7th June, just in time for Tony on the 9th June.

     

    I just hope it comes out on 8th though, because early on the 9th I'm on holiday and away from internet for a week - don't want to wait a whole week!

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