Stewart
-
Posts
2,655 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by Stewart
-
-
12 minutes ago, Heretic said:
Yeah it looks very busy, could top Endgame actually, although that depends if the capacity is enough.
Yeah, it was very busy when I went. Also interesting was that there were a lot of walkups.
Although I'm concerned about legs, there were basically zero families at my showing, majority were nerdy teenagers. Nothing wrong with that, but might mean it's frontloaded.
-
1
-
-
What I've noticed is that the film seems to divisive (that or the trade war has attracted review bombers):
As you can see, there's a lot more 1-2 then you'd expect.
Perhaps this will be one of those rare movies that keeps creeping up on Maoyan until the potential bombing has gone down?
The only counterpoint to this is that the 3-4 is quite high relative to the 5-6 range.
-
7 minutes ago, Nova said:
I found Ant-Man and the Wasp comps at my theater from Thursday afternoon
Anyways Pikachu is currently running at:
130% of Shazam!
64% of both Ant-Man and the Wasp and Fallen Kingdom
30% of Deadpool 2
130% of Shazam would be 7.8M
64% of Ant-Man would be 6.4M
64% of Fallen Kingdom would be 9.79M
30% of Deadpool 2 would be 5.3M
*Shazam and Fallen Kingdom were numbers I got Thursday morning so those are direct comps in terms of the time I checked. Ant-Man and the Wasp was a scan I did around noon (so I can check again to see if there are any increases for it) and Deadpool 2 were the final numbers for it (which I can also do another check then but I’d assume things will have given us a more clear picture by then)
So, based on your theatre, anything between 7-10m is likely purely dependent on how walkups fare?
That would actually be fantastic. Unless your theatre is unusually overperforming
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, Nakamura said:
This week is about 70, next week is 30, next week is 12, next week is 5, lol, die before even reach 2.7b
the late legs of movies are usually much better than that. Many OS markets have very strong late legs.
Also this weekend see Korea and Japan no longer on holiday, which also inflated last weekend. Also UK Sunday was inflated due to Holiday Monday.
-
Personally I think £550k for Tolkien is actually pretty good all things considered.
£18.5m for the 4-day for Endgame is ridiculously huge.
Should easily hit £100m in a couple weeks
-
3
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
I'm pretty busy today, so I'm only gonna focus on Far From Home when it comes to the upcoming movies. Maybe I'll look at some other movies in the future. You can look at some of the other movies right here.
Movie/Date Monday Spider-Man FFH 13,647 57 days First day of presales:
228% of Captain Marvel (350M)
46% of Infinity War (119.6M)
Day 57:
606% of Captain Marvel (930.6M)
So before people go nuts, there are some things to keep in mind. First of all, when Captain Marvel started selling tickets, it did so at around the evening time, while Far From Home started in the late morning. That makes comparisons really tricky right off the bat. And of course, the Tuesday opening. Do we measure the Fri-Sun period or the whole 6-Day period? The last time movies opened on a Tuesday were Vice and Holmes and Watson, which...yeah, aren't good comparisons. Before that (apart from Fathom events) was all the way back in 2012, so we're pretty much in new territory here. But either way, selling close to half of Infinity War's first day is a really good start.
Just to add to that, because of the capping, and Endgame being huge still, FFH likely sold much more than that. When Captain Marvel tickets were released there was barely anything around.
It's entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that FFH sold 3-4x CM's first day. As you say, CM started in evening so is a bit troublesome. Regardless I think this is a fantastic start.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Anyway, I was already coming to say this here, and I haven't caught up with the rest of the thread yet (I'll read it in a bit). but there's no sneaks/midnights/anything early in Sacto near as I can tell. Not yet at least. Just showtimes starting at 9am on the 2nd.
Really no reason for me to track a full opening day and try to compare it to a preview night, even if it is on a semi-holiday Tuesday.
That's completely understandable.
However, would you consider doing a once-a-week just Opening day report? I really enjoy your reports so it would be interesting even if not that comparable. Heck even doing 1 this week and 1 week of release would be very much appreciated.
Or perhaps doing just that one theater you sometimes track, Century Arden I think?
-
One more holiday left. Pokemon performed averagely compared to previous movies. Corpse:
Saturday, 05/04 (National Holiday - Greenery Day)
¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), +15%, ¥7,015,000,000 ($64.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 23
¥285,000,000 ($2.5 million), -48%, ¥3,890,000,000 ($34.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 09
¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($4.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 02
¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), +19%, ¥3,090,000,000 ($27.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 16
¥x90,000,000 ($805,000), +02%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 16
¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 02
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -13%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 16
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 02
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), +25%, ¥3,590,000,000 ($32.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 72
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), King of Prism: Shiny Seven Star IV (Avex Pictures) NEW
Sunday, 05/05 (National Holiday - Children's Day)
¥295,000,000 ($2.6 million), -18%, ¥7,310,000,000 ($66.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 24
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), -45%, ¥4,170,000,000 ($37.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 10
¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥755,000,000 ($6.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 03
¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), -05%, ¥3,305,000,000 ($29.6 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 17
¥x95,000,000 ($850,000), -19%, ¥1,580,000,000 ($14.1 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 17
¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 03
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -32%, ¥660,000,000 ($5.8 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 17
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x50,000,000 ($450,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 03
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), -15%, ¥3,605,000,000 ($32.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 73
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), -11%, ¥4,900,000,000 ($44.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 66
Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.
Upcoming:
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)Sunday was a bit lower overall than I was expecting, it's usually stronger than Saturday by a fair bit, but in hindsight I'm not surprised. Sunday is the 7th-consecutive national holiday, the first time that's ever happened in the market, so I imagine there has to be a cool-down point eventually. Tomorrow, Monday, is the final day in this epically long holiday period, so it's going to be interesting to see how the first ever Super Golden Week affects the box-office afterwards.
Pokemon Box-Office History (1998-):
Opening Weekends:
¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)
¥672.5 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)
¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 600,602 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)
¥540.1 million ($6.7 million) / 515,905 - Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)
¥516.2 million ($4.6 million) / 436,078 - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)
¥515.2 million ($4.7 million) / 491,192 - Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)
¥509.1 million ($6.4 million) / 489,862 - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)
¥501.4 million ($4.5 million) / 440,242 - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (2018)
¥500.2 million ($4.6 million) / 475,462 - Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)
¥486.3 million ($5.0 million) / 464,839 - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)
¥455.0 million ($4.1 million) / 350,000 - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (2019) *Estimate*
¥450.2 million ($3.8 million) / 427,104 - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)
¥416.4 million ($3.6 million) / 396,472 - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)
¥393.2 million ($3.9 million) / 360,190 - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)
¥384.1 million ($3.1 million) / 351,592 - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)
¥380.5 million ($3.1 million) / 354,328 - Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (2001)
¥323.9 million ($3.0 million) / 289,971 - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)
¥292.6 million ($2.4 million) / 273,209 - Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002)
Totals:
¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million) / 6.54 million - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back (1998)
¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million) / 5.60 million - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)
¥5.02 billion ($47.2 million) / 4.78 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
¥4.85 billion ($45.7 million) / 4.50 million - Pokemon: Lord of the Unown Tower - Entei (2000)
¥4.80 billion ($53.3 million) / 4.66 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)
¥4.67 billion ($51.6 million) / 4.40 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)
¥4.50 billion ($38.4 million) / 4.28 million - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)
¥4.38 billion ($39.1 million) / 4.16 million - Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)
¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million) / 4.13 million - Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)
¥4.30 billion ($38.9 million) / 4.10 million - Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)
¥4.16 billion ($50.3 million) / 3.97 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)
¥3.90 billion ($32.5 million) / 3.63 million - Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (2001)
¥3.61 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.44 million - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)
¥3.55 billion ($32.3 million) / 3.03 million - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)
¥3.40 billion ($28.2 million) / 3.23 million - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)
¥3.17 billion ($33.0 million) / 3.01 million - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)
¥3.09 billion ($27.9 million) / 2.71 million - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (2018)
¥2.91 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.70 million - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)
¥2.67 billion ($21.8 million) / 2.55 million - Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002)
¥2.61 billion ($21.3 million) / 2.40 million - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)
¥2.15 billion ($20.8 million) / 1.95 million - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)-
3
-
5
-
-
1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:
It make sense that if a holiday falls on Saturday, Monday is also off.
Both Saturday and Sunday are weekend days, and therefore are treated the same in most countries. So Monday off should apply in both instances I would think.
Comparing to Japan though, the nominated holiday only applies if it falls on a Sunday, not a Saturday.
Hence why I asked troy since they seem to be from South Korea. Maybe @Fish&chipscould provide some insight.
-
6 minutes ago, troyand said:
Nearly 600k will be really good. I think, to pass Avatar, EG’s outpacing IW in daily numbers should last at least by the upcoming weekend. So I hope weekday numbers after Monday will be mid or high 100k.
Oh yeah, so I noticed that IW's Monday was rather large (also a 30% drop). I was wondering if you knew why that was?
I though Children's Day was Saturday last year, and Sunday this year. Then assumed that, like Japan, when a holiday falls on a Sunday the Monday after gets to be a "nominated Holiday". Does this also apply to Saturday as well then or did May 7th have something special last year?
Also based on IW, I think it will almost-certainly pass Avatar in admissions, in $ will be more difficult.
-
Presales for tomorrow at a rather large 181k due to Children's day.
Based on a similar, but proportional, run rate to Labor Day, we're currently expecting an estimated 598k, down just 30%.
Expect a much larger drop on Tuesday when it finally normalises.
-
4
-
-
861k actuals today. Stronger evenings than usual since tomorrow is nominated holiday.
Also Pikachu did 120k this weekend in previews, which would explain the high presales. The response to it on CGV seems to be OK, but nothing spectacular. In particular over 50s and under 10s like, except the brunt of the audience is outside that range.
Endgame $ total up to $81.6m, 90% it lands between $104m and $112m now, barring a sudden ER drop or worse-than-expected late legs.
-
1
-
3
-
-
1 hour ago, Heretic said:
You must have seen the old number before Rth edited post, it will be around £75m by tomorrow.
There’s little to no chance this passes TFA, right now £100m is the target, perhaps it can too Skyfall for 2nd biggest film of all time.
Ah dammit, Rth knows I'm quick so was just teasing me...
Still though, TFA was never expected here (hence my response), so £100m should be touch-and-go.
I'm actually more interested this weekend in how Tolkien did, LOTR is well loved and I actually saw a few sellouts around.
-
5
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:
Looking around lc19.5m cume hitting 90m
HOLY SHIT THAT'S HUGE
thanks for that, looks like TFA might actually be in danger here
-
@RtheEnd any weekend numbers so far for UK?
-
6 minutes ago, Porthos said:
It is interesting tho that Fandango didn't break when CM did 52m on its first Saturday as the combined box office of all films did $78m that day (more or less).
Maybe this is something recent. Or maybe we just got lucky. Who the frell knows. Irritating as all hell, regardless.
My theory is that after it broke the first time (EG releasing tickets), then Fandango changed the code to fix it, which in doing so caused other bugs since they probably didn't bug test it.
Since it definitely would've broken last year with IW
-
1
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Detective Pikachu (5 days out)
Midnight - 471k
OD - 4.13 (+34%) (31585 shows)
Sat - 1.02m
Sun - 596k
--snip--
I'm expecting Monday / Tuesday to be when you get a surge, if any, in showtimes. That's when theatres will start seeing how Endgame is doing after the holiday and whether its worth keeping it on so many screens or not.
Also with Sunday being a workday, I expected today to act like a Sunday, which it pretty much did. Following normal patterns tomorrow should increase a larger % again I would think (as a normal Monday would from a normal Sunday)
-
3
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Uhhh my buddy bobby fucking brown told me he never heard of The Incredibles when I asked him if he wanted to go to see the sequel
So you found a counter example?
Cool.
Never said everybody. Move along little Jimbo
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
"I feel like there was a pent up demand for the movie over the last 15 years"
was there?
Can confirm, even when in School people talked about wanting a Incredibles 2 purely because of the Jack Jack cliffhanger of #1
-
3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
@Stewart sheet put realistic expectations at 2.486mn. The optimistic expectations are 2.614mn. I will go with realistic.
Lower it, 2.25-2.3 much more likely now
12 minutes ago, troyand said:That’s because last year IW dropped only 38%(increased nearly x2 from friday) at the same point. Of course still outpacing IW is a good thing but I expected at least +70% increase today.
Last year saturday was children’s day so it may helped IW increase nearly 100%... that’s only a guess. This year tomorrow is children’s day so let’s hope EG will show a lower drop
That would explain a lot actually, thanks.
-
1
-
-
29 minutes ago, andrewgr said:
For clarification, the number of tickets sold is just for that one day, correct? Whereas the number of seats left and percentage sold is cumulative?
That is correct.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Nakamura said:
So EG is $32.3M after Friday, almost = IW lifetime $33M
Friday $2.7M, any prediction for Saturday and Sunday?
Can it hit $50M ?
For EG? Well it'll likely be around $41m by end of Monday when holiday finishes. Should be able to get to $50m with some good enough legs.
Possible to "just" top out at $48m or so if the legs post-holiday aren't good.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, Nakamura said:
So Friday is $4.3M, any prediction for Saturday and Sunday?
I'd go with $14m between them for the moment.
So FSS totalling $18.4m and by Sunday total of $81.5m
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, troyand said:
820k to 10m. So the day has come.
Will definitely hit tomorrow. Should be around 1.0-1.1m total. Will update when CGV presales come in.
---
Sidenote: for the record we basically hit the nail again from just presales!
23 hours ago, Stewart said:So, lots of pressure today since yesterday's projection was near-perfect. CGV presales came in at 146k, so we're preliminarily looking at estimated 562k for Friday. Though this is using a pessimistic 50% for CGV. It also happens to be around a 50% increase from today.
@pepsa I think we're getting a bit too good at this now
-
1
-
UK Box Office Thread
in International Box Office
Posted
As I say though, the crowd that I saw didn't have the crossover with Aladdin and Slop2.
Both of those will be aiming for the family/children crowd. Pika was definitely more young-adult/late teens at my showing. No idea if its representative at all of the nation though. But if this is the case, it's possible that Pika's only disadvantage going forward will be screen loss, not audience clash.