Stewart
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Posts posted by Stewart
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4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
If the teaser is bad, this is going to under a million worldwide. If the teaser is good, then it will do 4 Billion+
Its written. Its how things work.
Under a million? pretty sure the people in this thread will contribute that much regardless of quality
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Don't know if this has been mentioned before, but just found on Cineworld UK's website they've put Avatar 2 in their "Coming soon" tape they do:
Also a dedicate page for it with release date:
https://www.cineworld.co.uk/films/avatar-2/ho00008423
I haven't seen that poster before, and also I suspect the 180 minutes is an estimate. Full poster:
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7 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
Never mind speculating if Avatar 2 will open to massive numbers, I’d be way more inclined to wonder if it can even open as well as the first one. That would be a start, then go from there.
You might want to first wonder if it will even release at all! I mean, we're 10 months out and we having gotten anything yet, and Cameron is notorious for delays...
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Just now, FilmFincher said:
Venom 2 is once again a 15
Should be a fun movie then, but shame about the box office for it
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6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:
I was lucky, only 20 minutes total between start time and bbfc card, though I was in an IMAX
Ah that's not bad, didn't do IMAX this time as no decent seats.
My showing was still maybe 60% full though, which is crazy compared to other things I've been to recently.
I went to see "herself" the day it came out on a friday night and literally 5 other people were there. Kinda funny but also sad.
That said, there are some big hitters coming up I hope for the UK, in my opinion:
- Venom 2 should do decently well, although not sure what rating it will be (I seem to remember that may have hurt it last time)
- Dune has been advertised as a blockbuster and epic, don't think it's making massive numbers, but should still be "good"
- Dear Evan Hansen, I know it didn't do well in the US but I feel it has a chance to do good here as we love musicals
- Eternals, should do good given it's Marvel and no D+ release
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6 hours ago, Heretic said:
Holy shit. Cinemas must be absolutely lapping this up after the last 18 months
Thought I'd chime in here, having seen 37 films since cinema's reopened (at Cineworld), all have had 20-25 minutes of adverts and trailers after the advertised start time. Some even as low as 17/18 minutes.
Just got back from NTTD, and it had a whole 39 minutes of adverts + trailers! Advertised start time 11:30am, it actually started (with the bbfc screen) at 12:09pm, absolutely insane.
So yeah, cinemas are loving the attention right now and making the most of it.
(to be clear I was happy to sit through the ads and trailers if it helps keep cinemas afloat)
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Odeon has closed its cinemas until further notice. It was only a matter of time.
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51 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
How was Misbehaviour? That’s on my list this week, along with Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Invisible Man.
Decent actually, Jessie stole the show for me. I thought it was really well done, although it felt like it ended a little early, but there's plenty of text at the end to continue the story.
I saw Invisible Man last week too and that was pretty good, felt very accurate of a federal system that's out to get you rather than protect you.
51 minutes ago, wildphantom said:I think you’re probably right. Selfish as it sounds, having the movies, theatre, sport, restaurants, pub taken away is - well there are no words.
I agree, although everyone staying home and quarantining is somewhat sensible, many people need to get out the house to stop themselves going insane. I make sure to where my gloves everywhere and to only cough when absolutely necessary, and then into a tissue, for the safety of me and those around me. I'm pretty sure I haven't got the virus, but I'll probably be asymptomatic so wouldn't know.
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8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
Sat in my local Everyman waiting for Emma to start. Only one in here - but still....kind of bliss, in the sad circumstances. Might as well see everything I can before it closes for a while, or we run out of new movies to see.
Exactly my thoughts. Kinda bummed though as my Limitless runs out April 5th, so a lot of films I was going to see I now will have to pay for when they eventually release!
But yeah I'm on a 5-day streak atm, first few days were still pretty full at Odeon, but yesterday watching misbehaviour it was only me and some random lady! Don't worry though, she was back left corner, I was front right middle, so we practised proper social distancing
I kind of expect by the end of this week the major chains will close down, which will be a shame.
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9 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:
where's endgame? It shows on the bottom row but not on the graph itself
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On 1/5/2020 at 4:39 PM, Eric Dolittle said:
Don't think we did this last year, so might as well start the tradition. Can 2020 beat 2013's long-standing record????
There's been one every year I can remember (which is 3 years worth), courtesy of @Mike Hunt last year (among others) and then @Blankments before that.
Past 3 years threads:
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2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
Note: Don't quote this post.
I live dangerously
(but thanks for the dailies)
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Just now, SchumacherFTW said:
Anyone else going to Knives Out tonight? Must be doing well, there's 2 screens here at the O2.
Yep! Looking forward to it.
Was half full when I booked earlier, but generally Odeon Coventry is a quieter theater.
Sidenote: It would help if I didn't still have Into the Unknown stuck in my head all damn day
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6 minutes ago, Cynosure said:
Just passed 400k at the usual locations. Depending on multiplier it could be reaching 500k. 1 billion yen Saturday could actually be in play, depending on ticket price and how well it plays in other locations...
Discussed this with Corpse last night, needs probably about 530k in usual locations to probably do ¥1B on Saturday. Regardless, ¥2b 3-day should be assured by this point.
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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:
Sorry man. I thought he was obvious but I have seen this for a long time. there was this guy called notfabio at hsx who used to post RS/MTC numbers back in 2000's. That was the only "tracking" except the data around Awareness,Definite Interest, First choice numbers from Jeff Wells.
No worries at all keyser, admittedly I have been busy since June, so haven't been active at all here
I used to always joke with DW (whether he remembers or not) when numbers came in, so thought I'd continue that. Although perhaps with the new members here for F2 I should've been clearer it was a joke.
Overall, 160m is fantastic, especially coming from MTC, given it's not the strongest chain given what posters here have found in their tracking.
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Sidenote, massive thanks to you and @Menor for your scraping and selenium grabbing all that data for movies. It's been very appreciated for someone like me who reads the emails but didn't have time to interact as it was very easy to see how things were going.
Hopefully once this final year is up for me I can come back and enjoy some good ol' box office fun again.
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Just now, keysersoze123 said:
jeez. its OW prediction from the MTC. We used to get RS/MTC numbers few years back. Neither were perfect but MTC was better for sure.
I've been here a while keyser, I know what those numbers are
Sense the tone
Was simply making a joke because of DW's ambiguity in his wording
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3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:
My source got a little curt with me last time I talked to him, so I haven't bothered him lately, but I tried today. And he's out of the office until December!
But he did say that MTC is looking at about 160m for F2 though. Not that that is of great value or anything, but it's all I got.
WOAH WOAH WOAH!
160m in presales?!??! and from just one chain?!?!?! Endgame is in trouble now...
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13 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:Movie
Endgame Infinity War Age of Ultron Frozen 2 Captain Marvel Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets D-13 --- --- --- --- 0.4% 513 13.5% 35,800 --- --- D-12 --- --- --- --- 2.6% 4,286 15.7% 56,983 --- --- D-11 --- --- 34.7% 106,782 10.7% 13,215 23.8% 75,123 7.5% 32,014 D-10 --- --- 50.9% 151,194 45.2% 25,412 53.0% 97,468 12.5% 46,652 D-09 --- --- 82.3% 195,842 52.6% 52,621 53.7% 128,247 27.4% 62,546 D-08 --- --- 82.8% 255,893 60.5% 89,148 52.0% 162,500 25.0% 81,951 D-07 85.4% 425,160 83.1% 312,278 74.6% 202,790 56.3% 216,169 21.5% 99,054 D-06 90.4% 757,581 83.6% 381,412 74.2% 254,789 31.7% 116,083 D-05 92.6% 1,123,944 83.0% 441,715 72.0% 304,101 29.7% 141,873 D-04 92.6% 1,314,585 80.0% 521,066 78.9% 355,901 40.2% 172,546 D-03 94.6% 1,462,388 83.8% 587,489 93.6% 436,244 53.7% 201,417 D-02 96.1% 1,634,283 92.1% 684,782 93.5% 564,163 85.2% 241,762 D-01 96.8% 1,912,215 93.3% 869,316 94.3% 723,132 87.0% 315,043 D-00 97.1% 2,321,735 96.5% 1,156,280 95.9% 935,461 91.6% 441,901 The lowest D-07 to final multiplier here, IW, would take F2 to 800k. I think it'll do at least 2x CM for 880k. Very reasonable imo to follow the path of CM/AOU from here with x4.5 and end up at 970k+
Other, smaller, HW PS in spoiler:
MovieCivil War Jurassic World 2 SM: Homecoming Ant-Man and Wasp Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets D-13 4.8% 3,001 2.7% 4,085 --- --- --- --- D-12 13.2% 12,074 5.6% 11,064 --- --- --- --- D-11 17.8% 26,612 6.9% 19,430 --- --- --- --- D-10 28.7% 36,353 11.7% 26,727 --- --- --- --- D-09 68.4% 47,764 30.4% 32,446 --- --- --- --- D-08 69.5% 65,652 28.4% 42,774 --- --- --- --- D-07 70.3% 85,648 21.7% 50,417 --- --- --- --- D-06 69.4% 108,114 43.1% 60,752 10.8% 20,959 --- --- D-05 71.8% 157,805 37.5% 78,272 14.2% 31,988 21.0% 36,583 D-04 70.7% 209,254 35.9% 105,020 15.7% 44,252 20.3% 53,857 D-03 80.1% 252,771 49.8% 139,672 --- --- 30.0% 73,136 D-02 95.1% 304,951 76.8% 197,643 53.5% 75,569 65.5% 120,619 D-01 94.3% 434,834 76.2% 312,877 67.1% 128,586 69.2% 152,447 D-00 95.6% 621,285 76.2% 596,941 79.8% 242,444 80.0% 246,552 This is all from @Stewart's sheet, and I think @pepsa helped fill it out.
This is going to be a fun run to follow, it's just such a shame that final year of uni has consumed any life out of me (hence why i've been dead since June).
Although I started the sheet, and Pep helped out a lot too, you can't forget that you are responsible for a lot of the data on there too after I died!
Looking forward to Frozen's run, as the PS seem to be going absolutely mental. I don't think it'll hit 1m PS, but 900k+ should be doable depending on capacity.
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9 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
There's a fair bit of competition, there's Jumanji: The Next Level but also Cats.
Jumanji should not be underestimated.
It did $50m and almost 5x multiplier in the wake of Last Jedi. Not to mention Greatest Showman spawning too.
I have to be honest, anecdotal or not, I'm seeing just as many people excited for Jumanji as there are for Star Wars. Now I'm not saying that Jumanji is gonna do £80m, but I think £40m+ is reasonable, and with that much going out, you can't help but think Star Wars will be affected some way.
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5 minutes ago, Tower said:
It's not an error. He's using each weeks exchange rate, not just the current one.
As it 110% should be done.
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10 minutes ago, RaidensSword said:
What makes you so confident? I know these kind of stories can appeal to a certain audience but I'm just curious as I haven't seen much hype about this movie online and I don't see it appealing to families or younger people that much.
SpoilerIt's the only movie that passed censorship
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5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:
Wow, KOBIZ is great, lol.
@pepsa I updated FFH with actuals and also made several minor tweaks to the presentation and supplemental data. If you (or Stewart, who seems to be busy recently) would like any of that reverted just let me know. Or if you have anything else you’d like implemented, I’m trying to brush up my spreadsheet skills atm.
It looks great Thanos
I still read every notification I get through email (most OS market threads + Tracking thread) so I keep up to date. Just been very busy with work and university atm meaning I haven't had time to fully engage here
But you, @pepsa and @Charlie Jatinder have done a fantastic job in my absence on the MegaSheet. And @imbruglia with all round SK tracking
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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I track plenty of theaters that aren't as busy as others. It could just be that @TalismanRing's local theater isn't as busy as some. Or they buy later in the pre-sale window than other places.
Doesn't make the data any less valid if it is consistent. Well, consistent-ish.
Like, none of my theaters would crack a national Top 20. Century Arden might not even crack a Top 50 (I honestly don't know where it ranks, but I figure the 14 screens holds it back quite a bit). But it's the consistency from film to film, genre to genre that matters.
Sure, theaters will wax and wane as time goes on. But in the short term unless there are huge swings a mid-performing theater should be just as predictive as a high end theater. Perhaps a tiny bit more so if there's a danger of a high end theater maxing out on showtimes and seats.
Good explanation. Just to add to it, I think people were heavily spoiled by Endgame. That movie sold out just about everything it could, and now makes any movie that doesn't sell out any showing look pathetic. I think people need to get used to the fact that Endgame was the exception not the rule.
However, due to his experience, I'm sure @keysersoze123 is well aware of that anyway.
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12 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:
if my family is anything to go by i'm not overly concerned with the reviews (Aladdin should have taught as that - as should have any number of other movies that critics didn't love but the GA ate up).
My family saw a new commercial last night and almost lost their minds. Rewatched it 4 times.
I mentioned afterwards the reviews and that it was getting dinged for being just like the original and my family's reaction was good, that is what they want. They want the same songs, the same dialogue, just updated with real looking animals. They would be disappointed if it differed in any significant way from the original.
We'll know when we start seeing the scores next Friday.
Can confirm the same situation here. All my family want is the original in super duper realistic.
If critics are complaining that nothing significant has been added: Good. That only boosts the potential for this now!
I think the GA are very aware that TLK is so massive and significant story-wise, that any significant change would be a bad thing not a good thing.
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by Stewart
I think good ol' IronJimbo would beg to differ, he's been saving up for years to spend millions on A2