YM!

This is also true. But I think Sony may surprise us for once, as previously stated this and Animated Spider-Man are their only films that have some potential to do over $150M domestic. As long as it looks appealing to the GA as with HT1 and HT2 did during the Halloween season, it could break out.

Again, it can have mixed reception on RT (40%-55%), but as with Dreamworks is kind of proving now, they just need to make the film appeal to the GA and families.

Again, if Sony makes The Star look fun, funny, and faithful it may surprise us.

Just for some comparisons for The Star (as an Christmas themed family movie) All of these released first weekend/second weekend of November: Polar Express, which dealt with Incredibles, Spongebob, and National Treasure: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $185,618,322 59.9% + Foreign: $124,140,582 40.1% = Worldwide: $309,758,904 Domestic Summary Opening Weekend: $23,323,463 (#2 rank, 3,650 theaters, $6,389 average) % of Total Gross: 14.3% > View All 17 Weekends Widest Release: 3,650 theaters Close Date: March 10, 2005 In Release: 121 days / 17.3 weeks Christmas Carol (2009) dealt with Planet 51: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $137,855,863 42.4% + Foreign: $187,430,783 57.6% = Worldwide: $325,286,646 Domestic Summary Opening Weekend: $30,051,075 (#1 rank, 3,683 theaters, $8,159 average) % of Total Gross: 21.8% > View All 13 Weekends Widest Release: 3,683 theaters Close Date: February 4, 2010 In Release: 91 days / 13 weeks. Elf which dealt with Brother Bear, Looney Tunes, Cat in The Hat, The Haunted Mansion, and to a lesser extent Lord of The Rings: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $173,398,518 78.7% + Foreign: $47,044,933 21.3% = Worldwide: $220,443,451 Domestic Summary Opening Weekend: $31,113,501 (#2 rank, 3,337 theaters, $9,323 average) % of Total Gross: 17.9% > View All 17 Weekends Widest Release: 3,381 theaters Close Date: March 4, 2004 In Release: 119 days / 17 weeks Santa 2 dealt with Harry Potter 2 and Treasure Planet: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $139,236,327 80.6% + Foreign: $33,618,738 19.4% = Worldwide: $172,855,065 Domestic Summary Opening Weekend: $29,008,696 (#1 rank, 3,350 theaters, $8,659 average) % of Total Gross: 20.8% > View All 14 Weekends Widest Release: 3,352 theaters Close Date: February 6, 2003 In Release: 98 days / 14 weekends

Trolls did $153M it barely did over the $150M mark if that's what you mean.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A9926ld2XAw More footage.

Tons of families movies can survive during the Holiday season. If it's good, I can see The Star surprises us all, especially if Emoji, Nut Job 2, Pony, and (god forbid) Ninjago underperform.

Not to mention Sony will use this for double screenings for drive ins with Jumanji, which will be big. Thinking The Star if good could outgross HT2 ($169M), as SPA highest grossing movie domestic.

Should I see King Arthur on Tuesday night? @That One Valerian any thoughts?

GV2 increased over 50% on OW, the second biggest increase for a MCU sequel. Dead2ool is in a much more crowded June dealing Han Solo, Bumblebee, Incredibles 2, and Jurassic World 2. It's probably going to decrease domestic wise. Henceforth thinking OW around GV2 but weaker legs.

To be fair but not the best comparison, Grinch (both 2000 and 2018) opened/opens the second week of November, the latter will overperform due to Illumination. Predicting $35M/$120M for The Star, but $150M+ wouldn't surprise me.

The Star could break out for two reasons imo. 1.) Sony has surprised us with Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2 breaking out due to coinciding with Halloween even with mixed reviews. The Star is a movie about talking animals witnessing the birth of Jesus, and has the potential to be a huge Christmas hit. 2.) It's has certain voice talents that could draw in audiences like Oprah, Key (from Key and Peele), and Tyler Perry. I agree with you you on the JL statement but mainly because it'll rebound with Coco double screenings for Thanksgiving.

Mulan will do over $300M domestic easily. However thinking Ralph 2 will be another TLBM/Dragon 2 here on the forums where every overpredicts it. Poppins I can see doing $150M but nothing much else.

True. But remember JL comes on its third weekend (and to a lesser extent deals with a potential breakout in Sony Animation's The Star and Daddy's Home 2). However Disney may do double screenings with Coco.

It'll cross $300M but remember it has a lot of competition in November, like Homecoming in July.

The bubble won't burst, but after Infinity War 2, CBMs won't do over $400M for a while. Let alone OWs over $165M.

Rangagod (by Taika "the God")is mentioned but I'll recap, is part of the team ups that perform big OW ($120M-$130M) but have legs around 2.3x-2.5x.

Telling you guys now, the more bizzare or unique CBMs will break out hugely (Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Animated Spider-Man, New Mutants, Captain Marvel, Aquaman) as in $250M-$350M, the non huge sequels and new origin stories will do around $200M-$275M (Doctor Strange 2, Cyborg, Green Lantern Corps, Shazam, Ant Man 2), while the big event CBMs (like Infinity War, JL, Dead2ool, Suicide Squad 2, and Guardians Volume 2 and 3) will open to $145M-$200M, but have legs under a 2.5x multiple, with most around 2.3x. CBM team ups (like Homecoming and Rangarok, and potentially The Flash) will open to around $120M-$135M but have legs under 2.5x. There's also going to be handful of underperformers like Venom (if happening) and Dark Phoenix.

What's your beef with Deadpool and Logan?

It's the power of May release date/summer event. However for ones in July/November and the smaller solo movies we underpredict them.

The old man is right.

It'll open similar to GV2, but have weaker legs due to too much competition.

Thinking Alien might be slightly under Prometheus OW.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1qOMN1eq-fk&feature=youtu.be First bit of actual footage.

I think they should've moved certain films like The Mummy, Valerian, and Apes to August, I could see all three really breaking out in August.