AHepBurn

I seriously can't be the only one who accidentally clicks on the link for the "Captain Marvel" post constantly hoping to get to this thread, right?

For those blaming WB's marketing, that simply isn't the case. This is seeing what it's seeing simply because the novelty factor for Lego movies isn't there outside of the first. The first movie succeeded in large part because it was new and different. Lego Batman was really well recieved but experienced a significant drop from the first Lego movie. Ninjago I won't even go into because that should have been a direct to video or TV special since it's based on a show and toy line. Everywhere I'm reading is that the sequel is as good if not better than the first, but there's really no curiosity factor to rush out and see it. It was obvious there was significant novelty at play with the franchise after seing that Lego Batman drop, but considering the long development cycles for movies what can you do?

WB's new marketing team has a strategy of low-key but persistent marketing to maintain awareness, especially closer to the release date, as opposed to to the traditional large periodic splashes of 3 huge trailers. With the way 2018 went for them, it's pretty inarguable this strategy is working out well for them. For what it's worth, they also seem to be very focused on targetting the demo they want with their marketing. As a parent, I've seen some consistent marketing for Shazam on childrens networks really recently. Considering my dqughter almost immediately said "Can we go see Shazam?" Immediately afterward, I think they're doing their job fine. We've seen this same concern for Aquaman and Wonder Woman, about how there's a significant lack of advertising and how it'll hurt their BO and that simply didn't turn out to be true.

I've recently found a lot of enjoyment in looking back at BoxOffice's long-range tracking.

Studios should not release movies named "Serenity." They're apparently a guaranteed bomb.

So over the course of MPR's release we've gone from "$400mil locked!" to "Greatest Showman legs!" to "$200mil was Disney's target all along! Where are we at now? Have we finally reached blessed acceptance?

It's not really that. It's largely the sense, at least in my viewpoint, that over the past couple of years Paramount has somewhat overestimated the pull and footprint of the Transformers franchise due to past success and tried to bully their way into a spot with competing blockbusters. I just find it hilarious that the two primary culprits that have left the franchise shattered in it's wake has been two DC movies, which I'm sure Paramount figured they could get away with slotting next to. My face following the box office of The Last Knight and Bumblebee in the aftermath of those decisions is basically:

Paramount should just consider not releasing a Transformers movie anywhere near a DC movie. The Last Knight released shortly after Wonder Woman and suffered a similar fate.

Dead franchise.

It's not really that bad. I think $11mil would have been a good target and it came in slightly lower than that. But that's from a Monday that follows a good hold over the weekend with actuals that came in higher than expected. It's fine.

Lets not go crazy and pretend that the jump between Batman Begins and The Dark Knight is based purely on an increase in quality that the general audience noticed. The Dark Knight's take was inflated in large part by two factors: 1) Curiosity in the first new appearance by a villain with very deep pop culture roots in the Joker. 2) The death of one of the young leading actors in Heath Ledger, which is the same reason one of the Fast and Furious movies busted through the $1bil mark when all the previous entries were within the same general range. Considering Bumblebee is a prequel, the only character that could possibly fill in for #1 would be Megatron and we've already seen it. And God forbid #2 happens again.

I just liked crying out "Mary Floppins" because it's a funny natural play on the name and I'm a slut for likes and cheers.

Hopefully WB can find an extra $1mil for the 3-day. Jason deserves it.

It's the new norm that I've seen not only here but even in critic reactions. From now on every DC movie that does well is the one that DC finally got right and saved the franchise. From now on every DC movie that fails to meet expectations is because they've never released a good movie and they should stop trying and just sell the rights back to Marvel. I look forward to watching it continue with morbid fascination.

HUGE start for Mary Poppins!

I'm Many Floppins y'all.

Jumanji is a really good and fun movie and you should watch it if you haven't yet.

Hey! The first Mortal Kombat movie was great and a fantastic combination of fun, action and ridiculousness. Watching that movie in the theaters at release was awesome. I suffer no besmirching of Mortal Kombat. I. WILL. FIGHT. YOU.

After two years of unexpected commercial and award show success, WB's figured it out: Killer clowns are the next big "it" thing in movies.

Other than Pitch Perfect 3 at the end of December, Universal is basically done for the year. Warners still has It coming out right now and Blade Runner and Justice League coming out later this year as well. They'll overtake Universal easily. January 1–September 4, 2017 Rank Distributor MarketShare TotalGross* MoviesTracked 2017Movies** 1 Buena Vista 18.5% $1,400.4 9 5 2 Universal 17.6% $1,331.9 11 9 3 Warner Bros. 16.6% $1,260.7 25 12 So, anyone not on my "Warners will break it's all-time domestic take this year" train? Current total stands at $1260.7. Surpassing number 2 $1923.9 (2010) and number 3 $1902.2 (2016) I think are a given. All time is $2105.7 (2009).

The actual impact of RT and critic reviews are largely based on the expected scale of the movie. If we're talking smaller or independent films, then RT and critic reviews make a massive difference because they're pulling from such a small potential audience that the additional talk provided by reviews is helpful to draw in additional audience that it likely wouldn't have before. If we're talking blockbusters, then RT and critic reviews don't make that much of a difference since the main driving force is interest and good or bad reviews are just going to shift numbers by, I'd say, 10% or so up or down depending on the reviews. Think of it in the sense of football and baseball. Smaller films are like football, which only has 16 games. So any help or hinderance is going to make a massive impact because you're working with such a small sample size. Additionally blockbusters are like baseball, which has 162 games and things that would cripple a football team like injuries or slumps aren't going to make much of an impact because the size that you're working with is simply so large that it can weather most trends and occurrences so that you end up around where most people expect you to. It is in that kind of middle range of scale that everyone can see that it'll make a lot of money regardless of the reviews because the general interest is already so large but it's still small enough that the critical response is definitely going to help it more than say an expected +$700mil WW blockbuster. With the current reviews and word-of-mouth, I think people should definitely raise their estimates up a good bit.

WONDER WOMAN IMAX EXPANSION WILL BE #1 THIS WEEK! BOOK IT!

It's unsustainable in the long term with a large subscription base but they can gather some data with a smaller to reasonable size base and sell the information in the short term.

They should take a step back in 2018 compared to 2016 and 2017. Having two DCEU movies is basically $650mil DOM minimum and that's not happening next year.

I said it a while back, but expect a #2 all-time domestic year for Warners in 2017 after their #3 all-time domestic the year before.