AHepBurn

For some of those, yes. For the others, no. Transformers is what it is. It's a franchise that's essentially critic proof, people know what it's all about, and it fills a niche spectacle blockbuster role. I think it'll be the same as prior and decrease domestically, but not appreciably like Pirates 4 to 5 and certainly not from a worldwide gross perspective. Spider-Man: Homecoming shouldn't suffer as I don't think people really view it as a Spider-Man movie but as another RDJ Marvel movie. Which is in large reason why I think Sony essentially "rented" RDJ and the Marvel connections to jump start their "Sony's Marvel Universe." And Justice League is also another special case. Even with harsh critic reviews and seemingly endless trashing from internet bullies, both BvS and SS have pulled in really good numbers where they're averaging around $130mil OW, $300mil DOM, $800mil WW. I think it's a franchise with a very large and really hard core of supporters who, with all the vitriol levied at them by others for liking something that many others don't like, will show up because they genuinely like the universe and are at this point just about tempered to watch things and judge for themselves. Wonder Woman was also the most well received segment in BvS. It looks like her solo movie is going to be well received and she appears again in a matter of months for Justice League. Warner's marketing is the best in the business and they can use that to feature her, the well received Affleck Batman and the currently very en vogue Flash in promos to get people to turn out for Justice League. Snyder unfortunately having to step away to cope with family tragedy and Whedon stepping in to finish the movie is going to help reception of the movie overall since a lot of the hate levied against BvS was targeted toward Snyder himself for whatever issues people have with him personally and with his style. That's a really callous thing to say, but it's sadly the truth of the world. Personally, I just find it fascinating how consistent the numbers are going to look for the DC movies right now and it's entirely going to be due to a variety of factors. BvS and SS had really harsh critical reviews but the star and character power was enough to push them to similar numbers. WW was initially believed to take in a good deal less due to being a female-led superhero movie but with all the great buzz, great reviews, excellent marketing and every movie dying in the box office around it it's looking like it's set to get really close with the previous two movies in the series. It's fascinating in a meta and wide viewpoint sense and I personally can't wait to see what happens with Justice League.

It's called an "adonis belt."

Good hold. Like I said in the weekend thread, I really don't think FB is going to be front loaded. It's a HP spinoff but tangentially connected, contains none of the main characters and has no large connection to the main book series. It's simply not built as something HP fans will absolutely have to see first day/week but is set up as something that should pull in enough casual interest that should bode well for a solid run. It'll do well overall.

I really don't think FB is going to be front loaded. It's a HP spinoff but tangentally connected, contains none of the main characters and has no large connection to the main book series. It's simply not built as something HP fans will absolutely have to see first day/week but is set up as something that should pull in enough casual interest that should bode well for a solid run.

Are you really thinking that Jurassic Park's and Furious 7's anomalous breakout performances, one of which was triggered by the death of the lead actor, is the new normal for Universal?

But Warners is out-earning Universal this year. Even Fox is out-earning Universal this year. And I haven't checked since late summer, but Warner has been out-earning all other studios this year from a per-dollar-spent basis. And with how well Sully, Accountant and Storks has done, I don't think that's really changed much.

I don't quite understand the freakout. I thought realistic expectations for this were going to be around this range and I don't think $100mil was a serious consideration this time of the year. People should have learned about extrapolating future successes of reboots/expansions at the very least from having Batman in BvS earlier this year. Just because a character/franchise experienced a level of past success doesn't immediately mean the same character/franchise in a reboot/spinoff is going to continue where it left off. The reason the Nolan movies cracked a $1bil is because of Nolan/Bale/Ledger, not because it's Batman. And this is a Harry Potter spinoff without Harry Potter, so expectations should have been on the more muted side. Comparisons for this to Strange are also asenine. This is a spinoff to a franchise not featuring it's stars and has been dormant for 5 years. The other is Episode 14 of a franchise that's been going on consistently for the past 8 years. They have nothing in common other than the fact they both feature magic.

I'm actually disappointed Doctor Strange will just make it through the $200mil barrier. The novelty of Fantastic Beasts being the only movie in that range for the year was interesting.

Fudging requires having money to move around. And looking at Paramount's year so far...

I don't think that's entirely the case for Spider-Man. That series has steadily decreased in domestic with each release after the first, which is really odd. It's clearly still a money-making franchise and a character with potential, but they had to do something to course-correct the trend.

A live action Monster High right now would have done decent cash. The budget for that would be really low since it'd be really light on effects and you can just pick up whatever aspiring starlets for a fun little film aimed at early teens and young girls. We're also still in the midst of the popularity of the brand and toys for it are still around and selling well. Though the window to make money for that movie is likely closing rapidly right now as time passes. Jem was bound for failure since it was a mid-popularity 80s property with no follow up until a moderate re-push a year or two ago. Same with Max Steel, which was just moderately popular in the early 2000s. The movie-making process is unfortunately long and difficult, so it's hard to get a movie out during optimal times. Warcraft, for example, would have done much better if it was released when it was initially conceived at WoW's peak around 2009-2011.

Oh wow, $1.35mil. That's definitely a mid-$20mil opening on a $40mil budget. That's fantastic. I'm guessing taking the Batman gig really re-bumped up his star power and gave him a nice rebound in the general public after his marriage issues.

This is a pretty frontloaded year.

I'm really more interested in seeing it for weird occurrence value since it has a pretty good chance of happening. I mean, Fox has had 5/10 Star Wars for a while now. 6/10 and 8/10 DC for WB would be kind of neat. Who knows, 10 years from now we could be looking at 6/10 of Disney's Top 10 being Star Wars.

Yes, 2017 doesn't have anything that could break into that Top 10 for WB save Wonder Woman and Justice League. Both of which I can see taking at least spots 7 and 8 if not above so I think it's a pretty safe bet. That would be 6/10 movies from the same brand, which would already best Fox's Top 10 with 5/10 Star Wars. Having 8/10 would be ridiculously unheard of.

Different franchise. To be honest, what I really want to see is this: Rank Movie Title (click to view) Studio Total Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Open 1 The Dark Knight WB $533,345,358 4,366 $158,411,483 4,366 7/18/08 2 The Dark Knight Rises WB $448,139,099 4,404 $160,887,295 4,404 7/20/12 3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $381,011,219 4,375 $169,189,427 4,375 7/15/11 4 American Sniper WB $350,126,372 3,885 $633,456 4 12/25/14 5 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice WB $330,360,194 4,256 $166,007,347 4,242 3/25/16 6 Suicide Squad WB $318,940,629 4,255 $133,682,248 4,255 8/5/16 7 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $317,575,550 3,672 $90,294,621 3,672 11/16/01 8 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB (NL) $303,003,568 4,100 $84,617,303 4,045 12/14/12 9 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $301,959,197 4,455 $77,835,727 4,325 7/15/09 10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB $295,983,305 4,125 $125,017,372 4,125 11/19/10 This is the Top 10 all-time domestic for WB. With how BvS and SS have done, by January 2018 there's a good shot that DC movies will account for 6/10 of this list with Wonder Woman and Justice League sliding in. If the DC Films releases were to retain consistency or increase (no matter how minor), we're looking at 8/10 being DC movies by January 2019. Which would be a hilariously amazing sight. Knocking Deathly Hallows 2 and American Sniper out of the chart is unfortunately astoundingly difficult to get a clean 10/10 sweep.

I actually wouldn't mind if SS beat BvS. Compared to the Marvel movies, which have obvious peaks and valleys depending on character and stars involved, it'd be interesting to have a franchise that either holds consistently or increases just based on franchise and regardless of character and content. It'd be fun. And when $330mil DOM is going to be your starting point...

Power Rangers is still on the air in the US and Europe and the super sentai genre has been going on in Japan since the 1970s. It's a series that has its share of hardcore fans and you can still make a fairly successful Power Rangers movie probably for $15-20mil. Certainly not $150mil.

Lionsgate really has an issue with weighing budgets vs potential earnings. Just this year: Divergent - Allegiant: $111mil B, $66mil D, $179mil WW God of Egypt: $140mil B, $31mil $31mil D, $150mil WW Mechanic - Resurrection: $40mil B, $21mil D, $56mil WW Their upcoming Power Rangers movie has a $150mil budget, which is pretty close to the Marvel/DC superhero and other genuine blockbuster budgets for movies but has significantly less franchise potential. That's insane for a property that has one of its main appeals being the fun tv-budget looks to go along with it's absurd entertainment value.

Wait, Deepwater Horizon cost $156mil pre-tax? Yeesh!

I can't believe Suicide Squad has a legit shot a getting within 1% of Batman v Superman's domestic.

Yeah, Storks will "Tarzan" it for WB and I think Mag 7 is in that above-average spot between modest and amazing expectations. So really another fairly blase weekend, which bodes pretty well for holdovers.

It's a blow for original content. But WAG will be fine overall since they'll just fall back onto their Lego franchise. Even if this is a loss, it likely won't be much considering its production cost is $70mil, which is very reasonable. Because it's animation, it'll likely make enough long-range and home video that it'll be fine overall. Both Mag 7 and Storks are looking like they'll be average performers since the numbers are hitting the more reasonable ranges people expected. Which isn't terrible. It's just when you get the unexpected breakout hit in the beginning of February in Deadpool it makes the rest of the year a little banal since everything is behaving within reasonable expectations.

I'm really just here to see if Storks can cross $35mil.

Upcoming movies for WB are: Storks Warner Bros. 9/23/16 The Accountant Warner Bros. 10/14/16 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them Warner Bros. 11/18/16 Collateral Beauty Warner Bros. (New Line) 12/16/16 Storks I can see doing fine since there's a dearth of new family entertainment, Wild Life crashed and it's a good alternative to Magnificent Seven. The Accountant I can see doing well since Affleck seems to have increased his profile even more playing Batman and we're into awards season. Fantastic Beasts should do well and close out their year of tentpoles with (what I continue to believe will be the only) $200-$299mil domestic earner. And Collateral Beauty opens alongside Rogue One, but is one of WB's low budget films that can pull in an older audience for the holidays. So all-in-all, unless Fantastic Beasts unexpectedly tanks, WB should close out the year in style. I haven't fully looked at the possibilities for Rogue One, but thus far it's looking like WB will have the highest return-on-investment for every dollar they've spent this year.