Viggo Mortensen got nominated for the Globes , BAFTA , SAG and 9 critic awards so his chances are about 90% , the others each got a random nom here or there
The big short , Mad max , The Grand Budapest Hotel , Whiplash , Her , Django unchained , Silver Linings Playbook , Hugo , Midnight in Paris , Inceptions , The Social Network , Black Swan , Avatar , Inglorious Bastards , Up in the Air , etc ..... are not your usual " cry along with the those people " movies
Locked in
Damien Chazelle
Kenneth Lonergan
Barry Jenkins
Very strong contenders
Denis Villeneuve
Mel Gibson
David Mackenzie
Possible
Tom Ford
Martin Scorsese (?)
Being this good is why he is locked for a nomination but he won't win simply because Afleck is way better
up until now Denzel hasn't won anything except for the african american film critics association award ( if you read the name you might know why they awarded him ) as opposed to Affleck who took home every award there is