TwoMisfits

All colleges went back this week...that was a huge college student drawing movie...thus, a drop like Migration got after K-12 went back...

It's gonna be that again this year, isn't it?

So, non-PLF Cinemark booked...and ISS is gonna be low,,,b/c, like Soul, this Cinemark passed on I.S.S. Now, my PLF still has it for presales, so it's not quite as bad...but a wide opener skipping an MTC 12? Not good. Here's the set NEW Nothing - like, really nothing. Not an expanding movie, not a new opener, not even a foreign film...zip. Gonna be a QUIET weekend RETURNING Mean Girls - 1 screen Beekeeper - 1 screen Wonka - 1 screen Anyone but You - 1 screen Migration - 1 screen Aquaman - 1 screen Night Swim - 1 screen Iron Claw - 1 screen Hunger Games: BOSS - 1 screen - this a RETURN after a drop - does that make it an error, a re-expansion, a what the hell? Gunter Karaam - 1 screen 3 other foreign films share 2 screens Dropped 1 foreign film that was only single showing I guess we can call this weekend the one where holiday and January releases can breathe, b/c we have to have a positive spin:).

It's usually a good weekend for an 18-25 skewing movie, since 100% of colleges are out by that weekend...

In the scheme of 1.5x+ production budget WW is a flop and 2x+ production budget WW is a disappointment, this film (with a $205M production budget) looks like it may make it out of flop zone to disappointment zone. I gotta think WB is THRILLED with that after the rest of their DC releases this year. Finally one that might only lose a couple million, and not a couple hundred million, theatrically...

If I was gonna go prequel, original, and sequel, I want the "what if Jar Jar was actually a Sith", "what if Lando stayed a coward and didn't save Leia" and "what if Finn really died a hero"...

So, the weather is bad enough in the middle of the country that KC can't sell playoff tickets for more than $30 and Buffalo has canceled their Sunday afternoon NFL playoff game til Monday night...SO, any movie appealing to the middle of the country will be torched this weekend...

Oh, the chain has it b/c they offered the 25% off forever tickets deal for these now...just MY 2 Cinemarks didn't book it. I use mine as a gauge for how things go...with them not even booking, I knew the Soul number would be woeful... It's kinda like if a foreign film gets 2 screens in presales at my locals, it's gonna be one of the big ones...

If Disney EVER supported the theater summer movie programs, this would be a $2 ticket for kids to see a summer movie with their mom or camp group. But they don't...and they think they can command full price tickets for current tv product - and they can't. I'm betting all "sold" tickets were "free" from AMC/Regal subscribers...neither of my Cinemarks even booked this b/c they knew no family was gonna pay and Cinemark subs don't really get "free" tickets b/c they are not unlimited...

Edit: Correction - that was a different movie:). Unknown but should be under $50M.

"FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Paramount’s redux of Mean Girls is eyeing $12.3M today, including previews, for what will be a 3-day of $29M and 4-day of $33M at 3,791 theaters. Amazon MGM’s The Beekeeper possibly has a shot at $20M over 4-days after a $7M Friday, and 3-day of $17M at 3,303 sites." https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-mlk-2024-1235726596/ Deadline Friday update... Holdovers... "The fifth weekend of Wonka is looking at a fifth Friday between $1.8M-$2M, which will get it to between $8M-$9M over 3 days and $10M-$12M over four at 3,346 theaters. Sony’s Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell romcom sleeper, Anyone But You is seeing a fourth Friday of $2.1M, estimated 3-day of $7.7M, -21% and 4-day of $9.5M at 2,935 locations. Fifth goes to the fourth weekend of Illumination/Universal’s Migration with a Friday of $1M at 3,214 theaters for a 3 day of $4.7M, 4-day of $6.3M and running cume by end of MLK day of $85.8M. Legendary/Tri-Star’s The Book of Clarence is crashing with a Friday of $1M, 3-day of $2.4M, 4-day of $3M."

OT: But since it's an "elements-affecting" weekend, I finally watched Elemental this week to continue my viewing to see if I can find 25 movies to make a 2023 list. Sigh. It wasn't bad - in fact, it may have been the best Disney movie I watched last year (okay, no, GOTG 3 was probably better), but it was mediocre. I was bored through segments of it, I didn't buy the "love" relationship, I hated the canal problem and its continual "solutions", and I didn't like the voice acting of either lead. That said, I REALLY liked the dad/daughter and dad/granddad parts, and almost wish they'd have skipped all the water/fire love stuff to just keep the movie there... I'd give it a B-...and it's not good enough for the list...

One thing we never discuss about the $5 Atom deals...it's not always about how much it helps the movie with the deal, but also how much it hurts the movies without it, when GA feels okay about a lot of options and HAS a lot of options...4 19 years olds who can spend $5 each or $20 each just to hang out has an effect...and once they've gone, they may be good for movies for a few weeks... Like last March - Creed 3 and John Wick 4 had the Atom deals - D&D, Shazam 2, Scream VI did not. A lot of options in that month, and 2 did more than the rest...maybe it was all quality and fanbase, but maybe it wasn't quite just that... Again, this usually matters the most for male 13-45 drawing movies...so it hopefully won't effect Mean Girls too much b/c that is NOT their lane...but still...

FYI - Since the Disney Pixar releases are obviously not selling, Cinemark released another "forever" deal for them - 25% off all tickets. The code is NOT good on discount Tuesday, but is good for all other tickets (I guess Disney demanded a minimum revenue per ticket). Again, this is info only. Like The Color Purple B10G1 free offer, I don't see this national deal moving the needle much, b/c these are 2nd run, and 2nd run kid movies are $2/each in the summer, not $12/each (the deal with regular ticket prices)...

It pays having $5 any ticket codes all weekend...the "why the heck not, what else do I have to do" male 13-45 buyer will come out if the movie is decent enough...

Dang, if you're saying "not the best"...yikes!

Only kids still out are college kids...so this tracks. Well, that and it was senior citizen discount day, on a day when the men were likely watching the college national championships:). Holidays are over so falls will be brutal week-to-week all week...until maybe Friday, where some schools (and workers) do the 4 day weekend...

It has great messaging about parent/child relationships and sibling relationships...catnip for moms, on top of any visuals...I'm sure just like they were 5 star givers OW, they have passed on how good the movie is for family viewing to others...

Non -PLF 12 also set - a little more harsh to holdovers and friendly to new foreign (but with none more than 1 screen, no likely big break)...and Color Purple doesn't survive here, either - here's the set... NEW Mean Girls - 1 screen (no change from presales) Beekeeper - 1 screen (no change from presales) Guntur Kaaram - 1 screen Saindhav - 1 screen 3 more foreign - 1.5 shared screens RETURNING Wonka - 1 screen (oldest holdover - nothing old got saved) Aquaman - 1 screen Migration - 1 screen Anyone but You - 1 screen Night Swim - 1 screen Iron Claw - 1 screen The Boys in the Boat - .5 screen GONE The Color Purple, Ferrari, The Boy with the Heron, Hunger Games BOSS, Trolls, Salaar, another foreign film

Since it's the 1st real opens after Xmas, I figured I'd update my locals set. In a shock to me, but maybe it shouldn't be, The Color Purple did not survive, even for MLK weekend, at my PLF...wow, just wow...here's the full set... 1st local PLF 14 set NEW Mean Girls - 2 screens - 1 PLF, 1 not - no change from presales The Beekeeper - 2 screens - 1 PLF, 1 not - no change from presales The Book of Clarence - 1 screen - no change from presales Gunter Kanaam - 1 screen RETURNING Wonka - 1 screen Aquaman - 1 screen Migration - 1 screen American Fiction - 1 screen Night Swim - 1 screen Anyone but You - 1 screen The Boys in the Boat - 1 screen Iron Claw - .5 screen Godzilla - .5 screen (oldest holdover now) GONE The Color Purple, Poor Things, Trolls 3, Salaar Poor Things is getting no shot here to get a Globes bounce...

And the fact that Aquaman 2 is one of the best supers movies in a very bad supers year... Spiderverse was better... Guardians of the Galaxy 2 was better... AND nothing else was... So, if it ends as the 3rd highest supers movie WW for 2023 (very tough with Ant Man 3, but not impossible at this point)...it would be exactly where its quality would warrant where it is...

It's weird, though...you have subscriber bases at the big 3 where 2 of them get unlimited movies, so normally you get TCP's apparent WOM for a generic blockbuster musical and you get $40-60M DOM more gratis with no work over a holiday period, b/c all the subscribers will eventually wonder in "for free" to catch the new hit...but this movie just seems like it's "one gender/age/demo" only and it REPELS everyone else... I know someone said it's acting like a gimmick horror...but instead, I'd say it's acting as insular as a niche religious conservative film or a Japanese anime or an Indian Bollywood film - 100% WOM in the tiny group that watches them, but everyone else is like "hell no, you do you, and I'll pass"... If it wasn't MLK weekend next weekend, I think this would be the big wide drop for the new entries...as is, I expect the following weekend will be... Edit to Add: Boy, I missed on this one. I haven't missed like this in awhile, but this is what happens when you predict something way out of your lane:)...note to self - go back to animated and supers and family films:)...

Beekeeper has the $5 tickets coming...and isn't a musical. So, theaters betting on the Atom deal spurring walk ups as a "why not", especially since there isn't an action movie out over Christmas nor a movie made specifically for males 25+...

Nightswim's Posttrak - dang...from Deadline... "Night Swim landed a C CinemaScore which is middling for a horror film. CinemaScore is always harder on horror movie. But even more cynical are Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audiences who drowned this latest title from Blumhouse and Atomic Monster with one star and a 45% positive and a 26% recommend, which translates into a don’t-recommend. Near even split between males and females at 51%/49%. Sixty percent of ticketbuyers were between 18-34 with 18-24 year olds the biggest demo at 33%. Diversity demos were 37% Caucasian, 31% Latino, 19% Black, and 7% Asian." https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-night-swim-wonka-1235695828/

He does carry the movie - he has all the "fun" and best lines, on top of his normal appeal. He sells the movie, almost single-handedly.