TwoMisfits

I will say...this movie has made it to the Fortnite tween boy set. My kid, who hasn't wanted to watch a 2024 movie yet, has said he'd like to see this in March. Not KFP4 - this one. So, keep that in mind. Now, it's not all my kids, so this is just a tiny movie whisper, not a full on one...

So, posting the Deadline Friday numbers... One Love $3.6M F / $13.4M W Demon Slayer $5M F (with previews) / $9-10M W Ordinary Angels $2.3M F (with previews) / $6M W Madame Web ?? F / $5M W Migration $700K F / $3.5M W Drive Away Dolls $1M F (with previews) / $2.5M W Edit to Add - Overall, it looks like a DOM Top 10 around $50M and a total market around $60-$70M...

OT: So to be a completionist for all 2023 supers, I watched The Marvels last night. It had 20 minutes of good movie in it. Unfortunately, it was a 92 minute movie that felt like 2 hours 15 minutes with the sheer amount of plot dumping (not seen since the Eternals, although I haven't started 2024 supers yet). I HATED the 1st 20 minutes and I disliked everything from the singing planet onward. But for that time in between, they had something...but totally lost it. It's bottom tier for the year with Ant Man 3, Flash, and Blue Beetle (which almost squeaks out of the bottom tier b/c of their stellar opening act). I'd give it a D+...and won't be rewatching. Still no more movies for a top 2023 movie list...not looking like I'll find even 10 worthy to turn in...but Oppy is on my list when I find a full day or 3 nights...which is gonna be rough with 1 week to go...

Father's Day weekend would not be the worst date for this...

(Mother) Cabrini is the follow up movie from the director of Sound of Freedom. Like SoF, it's not 100% religious, but instead is the true story of an Italian Catholic immigrant (Francesca Cabrini) who, after seeing the woeful conditions of the slums of NY, works to persuade the mayor of NYC to provide housing and healthcare for hundreds of orphaned children. It's being released on International Women's Day. And, for Catholics, she is the 1st American saint.

Mother Cabrini is in 2 weeks, and religious GA are like other GA - they aren't gonna spend for movies week after week, and you already have the Chosen episodes around to appeal to them as well. So, it might be a case of too much religious stuff at too high a price...and if it's religious and those folks have to choose, they are gonna go with known quantities vs unknown ones... That said, I have 2 free tickets for Sunday that I got on an Atom deal, so they did try to hype the movie in presales 2 weeks ago to build momentum (b/c if I see free tickets, I always grab them and then decide)...and I still might not go b/c the timing is bad. So, they did try to even bring folks in with free to get WOM and just knowledge of the movie out there...and it didn't really help b/c there's just too much for that tiny sliver of the market to support - they just don't go to the movies that often. EDIT TO ADD: The free tickets were NOT pay it forward, but just regular free tickets that some low level horror movies also give. Limited to X amount and only in certain areas (b/c the movies with free tickets don't tend to open at every normal wide location), but totally free.

Spiderverse was a TMobile deal last year (if my memory is not faulty before my 1st coffee is done)...that usually holds down presales right before the deal comes live and then spikes them all the way through the weekend...it's not gonna be a good movie to use as a comp for that reason (same for Creed 3 and Wick 4, even though they are recent March movies)... For now, Dune 2 has no TMobile deal coming...

Right, b/c $102M/$325M will be what Dune 2 does DOM. I've been trying to get Sean on this bandwagon for a month:)... And to get this on presales, my PLF local did add the 2nd PLF screen to Dune's OW presales...so it's moving up showings/screens early like Barbie...although not as rapidly as Barbie...but we're getting there...

Then the ending of Ant Man should have been Ant Man defeating Kang 1, while getting blindsided by a Kang 2, who tsks tsks that Kang 1 couldn't handle a little bug all by himself (and Cassie still getting home)...if you are gonna go that arc (they aren't invincible, but when they start popping in to help, they get pretty dang like that), then you go that arc and set up the whole thing...

Umm, see I've been trying for weeks to get Sean to join the triple digit club, so let's see about knocking that up another $5M+:)...

The power of $5 tickets on date night week (as someone mentioned, it grew and grew and grew all week - that's the TMobile/Atom effect - more and more GA folks say, what the hey, it's $5, I'll go b/c I'm bored today)...well done, Paramount, on providing the GA lift... And if it's like Beekeeper, by getting that initial audience buy in, you may spur future adult buyers to see it with WOM... The 2 movie wins of the year so far - both TMobile deals. I'll let you know what the next one is (and if I think it will matter). For now, there isn't one coming...

So, ummm, I said $46M on Wed in the weekday thread as my back-of-the-napkin work...do I win a prize:)...

I will say, Aquaman 2 had similar feedback. Comic fans hated it, and GA families loved it. So, this may or may not drop off a cliff. Aquaman 2 didn't. Instead, it kinda thrived after OW...

Here's the thing on the TMobile promotion. Someone - TMobile, Atom, the studio, etc - is paying the rest of the ticket price to theaters (or at least a negotiated increased price), so the box office revenue per $5 ticket is higher than $5. This is why theaters overbook for the $5 deals.

Off the cuff numbers with almost no thought... $12M Wed $4M Thurs $8M Fri $10M Sat $7M Sun $5M Mon $46M 6 day - I'd say Daddy's Little Girls is highly possible...

In this economy, a $10 all-in date to a movie with nice sexy music and a 13-45 male/female on your arm is golden. This is about the biggest hit a TMobile code will probably get...well, except when they've had the deal for the huge blockbusters (like Spidey last year)...and it will help all 6 days, so we could be looking at a nice 6 day... PS - Sony/Madame Web should have gone to TMobile and offered to be in on the deal for either movie...missed opportunity for them to share the wealth

No idea on %, but it seems that movies that skew 13-45 male and are borderline movies (tired sequels, "maybe I'll see that", etc) do best with the deal...like Margaret last year got NO help... They can be used starting tomorrow for any day sales are open...and normally must be purchased by the end of Sunday... Normally, they have as much effect on elevating a movie as holding down competition...

As far as I know, there is no national group buying for this effort. Valentine's Day just really is a big movie going day for movies. And I'm actually surprised at how high the buying is, with 80M $5 tickets codes coming online Tuesday through Atom/TMobile...

So...I found the trailer in the meh category like others. I haven't changed my mind on Deadpool's potential.

It probably rolled in its $5 mystery movie Monday showings to Thursday, too.

There is no point releasing a kid movie available on streaming for any more than $2/ticket. $1-$2 is the summer kid movie price. That's what families would pay, knowing they've got popcorn costs also coming.

$5 tickets coming Tuesday usually holds down this timeframe (the 1-3 days before they come on)...

A Demon Slayer film that is just shows stitched together - which is still getting 3 presale screens at my one of my locals b/c things will be dire that weekend...

This is looking to be a horrific overall weekend DOM BO-wise. Deadline didn't put an overall number, except below $52.6M. With the numbers above, would we be looking at around $30M-$35M total BO for the weekend? If so, this would be a post-Covid era/post-2021 low, right? Jan 22 had Spidey at $34.7M for one of its weekends, so I guess that's the over/under... Edit to Add: Damn, M37, great minds think alike at the same time this morning...

NOT the animated one? What the heck? They are gonna try to have an ongoing animated AND live action Moana release with 24 months of each other? And some say you can't see issues at the "concept" stage - this is another fail at that stage, approving 2 concepts with the same character for the same time frame...and splitting your team across both...