TwoMisfits

After this week, the next 2 weeks of weekdays will be good days for box office. Then, we'll hit the doldrums of April til we start getting colleges out in May.

So, this month's movies have added more deals on Fandango - Ghostbusters one won't matter (b/c TMobile's is WAY better) but Godzilla's might... Ghostbusters - $5 off 1 ticket Godzilla - Buy 2, Get 1 Free - up to $15 off (would have way more effect as a BOGO, but this IS a national, publicized deal) Godzilla will NOT have a TMobile deal.

Speed rollercoaster ala Mummy (or even a water coaster) with spider effects, water effects, and general horror. This would get so many riders:)!

I finally watched Echo. It was kinda horrible. It's one step up from Secret Invasion, but that's about it. Turning the character into a Walmart version of Black Panther vs showing her learning from Kingpin in her comic book physical mimcry style was such a mistake from the concept get go. She could be so impressive with that mimicry (since once learned, she never loses the ability), and it was kinda just waved away as not important. And it didn't help that to show the conversion of the power set away from mimicry to ancestor power, you got to see folks that I thought would have been better cast as Echo and who were better actors. The show had pretty much zero stakes, went nowhere, had little super powered action, concluded in a non-satisfying way, and existed solely, it seems, to re-establish that Kingpin is alive and back in charge. D+ for another D+ show is my grade. They have to start doing better.

It is just before release (it's always Tuesday before) - it's actually announced later than usual. Usually, most films announce 2 weeks prior to the deal, not 5 days before, so this one might have been a little last minutes after the 2 big opens...

So, the Ghostbusters folks are reading this thread...and might be worried about being forgotten. 3rd Atom/TMobile deal of the year - Ghostbusters - $5 tickets, available starting next Tuesday, 3/19. Expect a slight slowdown in presales from now til then, and then a bigger "walk up" and last minute buyer through the weekend... 2024 Atom/TMobile $5 ticket deals Beekeeper Marley Ghostbusters (Edit to Add - and 6 free months of Apple TV again...so I'll be a subscriber for the 3rd time...maybe I'll watch more this time - I did the 2nd time vs the 1st time)...

I agree - I'm thinking abuse and/or age is an issue right now. That's about the only thing that would wipe social media.

Dang gentleminions strikes again... So, it was a $35M OW family movie...and then college kids showed up...

And I guess we now know - the free tickets really got the ball rolling for KFP2. SoF is not the only movie who made early free tickets pay off into big weekend and total DOM...

Yeah, I figured Asian would overindex...and it did. But dang on the Latino number. Normally it would be a percent or two above Caucasian for a family movie that draws evenly by US demos. But this time, it's enormous.

This is the 1st shocking number I've seen this year. We're gonna get Panda 5, 6, and 7 if this doesn't collapse...

Shawn's 1st opening predictions were $50-$75M and $125-$195M DOM - and yes, I told him they were too low...a lot...those 1st few weeks when they weren't changing...and they were too low. My 1st opening predictions (which folks on this board know I don't tend to abandon just b/c of presales) of $102/$325M were too high (at least for OW)...we should have met in the middle:)...and he almost did at the end:). So, Leoh, please continue...over and over and over again...and keep beating the dead horse. You've contributed so much valuable feedback to these boards so far.

So, if any of those numbers hold, Jack Black is gonna be able to name his price for Panda 5...

And now we know where every trackers high numbers are coming from...

I feel like there's some hopecasting going on that family buying and attendance trends of early 2023 will repeat in early 2024 (aka the Mario spring break trend). I mean, we have nothing to say they won't, b/c we have had so few animated movies. Then again, we've had nothing to say they will.

I've stuck to $325M DOM even during OW. Nothing I've seen so far has dissuaded me from that number.

I'm just gonna put out there... There were a lot of free tickets bought in normally "quiet" times for kid animated (like presale bumps don't take much to move "expectations" to higher tiers when you're 7 days out from a kid movie). While their full price box office will be in opening weekend, they aren't really indicative of who will pay full price to show up OW, so they are gonna throw off all sorts of multipliers (T-X to T-O, T-O to walk ups, Thursday to weekend multiplier, etc). These tickets aren't like TMobile or Angel Studios tickets, where folks still have them floating around all week as options. They are over and done, more like the Atom deals that horror movies (and Ordinary Angels a few weeks ago) have given for free, but at a higher quantity. This is probably the biggest movie to have done totally free in awhile. So, keep an open mind when you think Thursday and then weekend. This could really go anywhere b/c I don't think the early sales are sales in the truest sense, so this could still go from being Sound of Freedom (where free got the ball rolling) to Ordinary Angels (where it didn't)...

End of the free ticket promo happened at 7pm Monday, so Tuesday sales had to live without it...

2nd non-Plf went all in on Panda NEW KFP4 - 3.5 screens - 19 showings (loses a few late nights - it's 4 screens by day) Cabrini - 1 screen Imaginary - 1 screen 4 foreign films split - 1.5 screens Returning Dune - 3 screens (more late shows than early) Bob Marley - 1 screen The Chosen - .5 screen Madame Web - 1 showing Gone Demon Slayer, Wonka (finally gone), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, some foreign films

Posting this week's sets to show Dune and KFP2 possible strength and holdover wipeouts... NEW KFP2 - 2.5 screens (+1 screen - 4 PLF showings - both 10ams and then on a single screen for next 2 early shows, so .6 on PLF) Cabrini - 1 screen (no change) Imaginary - 1 screen (no change) Shaitaan - 1 screen (new) Oscar Returns (4 movies) - 1 screen Oscar Shorts - .5 screen RETURNING Dune 2 - 4.5 screens (18 showings - 5 PLF, 13 reg) - lost 2 PLF equivalent showings, that's it. Gonna be a nice weekend possible. Bob Marley - 1 screen Madame Web - 1 showing Chosen - 1 showing Foreign film - 1 showing This is 13.25 of 14 screens - .75 is being held - probably for either an extra Oscar nom movie or foreign film GONE Bloodbath Demon Slayer (easy come, easy go), Migration (finally dropped), Argylle, The Beekeeper (finally dropped), Drive Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, multiple foreign films, multiple different Oscar one show films for Oscar week

It's senior citizen opening day - Mondays have senior discounts in most chains...

Xfinity has finally closed the KFP4 deal (which had been going on since presale open) saying "all rewards claimed" - so, that free ticket bump should be mostly over (I mean, there could be some stragglers who claimed codes but haven't bought yet)...

Every Xfinity subscriber in their rewards program could get a free ticket or 2 free tickets, depending how long they've been a subscriber, redeemable on Fandango for up to $15 (buyer pays any overage). There are 31.42M subscribers, all eligible for the rewards program (but you figure some don't bother). That's a crapton of free ticket redemptions possible floating around that beats anything Angel Studios ever had floating around...you assume almost all are never redeemed...but then again - kid movie sequel...and free is way cheaper than the TMobile/Atom $5 tickets...

Free tickets ALWAYS have box office value. I've just never been certain what that is. It's normally going to be close to the full price or the full price - like the "free" pay it forward tickets to Cabrini are up to $15 and the free XFinity tickets to KFP4 are also for "up to $15", and then the buyer is charged excess. So, I assume the box office is the full price of the ticket - the payer is just different.

Be careful with KFP2 walkups...these Infinity free tickets (1-2 per member, which is way better than $5/ticket) have been around for weeks to use...so I expect most of the current presale strength comes from those (and whatever subscribers didn't want Dune). That said, there will be reported revenue for all those tickets, so I do expect a base level for this movie to be much higher than if the deal didn't happen...