Barnack

That is has late as it can possibly be I guess, it start rolling out the 6 in some market, the 7th in major English market like Australia (and I imagine with the time zone, they are playing when it is the 6th in the US) USA 5 September 2017 (Los Angeles, California) (premiere) Belgium 6 September 2017 (Kinepolis) Germany 6 September 2017 (Fantasy Filmfest)

Warner Brother tend to do this (Fury Road had a late embargo, Wonder Woman had a very late embargo), maybe it is so than when the movie is bad and they have a late embargo is stop creating a negative buzz or maybe they just genuinely prefer review awareness to hit when people can actually buy tickets. With big WB release, it is dangerous to read even a little bit into the embargo timing. To be fair about the MadMax ultra late embargo release, maybe they didn't want (or were asked too) them before it played at Canne also.

You can look at a detailed financing break down of where it was financially in december 2015: http://www.youscribe.com/BookReader/IframeEmbed?productId=2697713&width=auto&height=auto&startPage=1&displayMode=scroll&documentId=2862608&fullscreen=1&token= It already had 68.895 in pre-sales / minima warrented, had the sales since december 2015, tax credits (30m Euro from france but also a lot from other jurisdiction about half the movie budget was spent foreign to France), co-financement, and you need to compare what would be left after that and what they did in France. The guy did work a lot of the tv side: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1320536/?nmdp=1&ref_=nm_flmg_shw_1#producerMovie Not even sure or stated in the article that he had anything to do with Valerian, he became deputy CEO in april 2016. Valerian principal photography started January 2016. And the reason given is : EuropaCorp reckons that the production activities [both TV and film] of the company Incognita are no longer compatible with the tenure of Mr. de Vesinne as deputy CEO, Obviously could be false, but not sure why it would be.

Is Canada always 1:1 with the US on American movie, specially something like IT, I suspect it will be a disproportionately USA heavy success over all other market.

I suspect some of those people that never like a movie in more than in a decade but goes read movie news articles and take time to post comments are bots (some case there is no connections between the article and what they write). Has for trend narrative created from small cherry picked data, it is always "click-bait" made up just to have content when there is nothing to talk about and they know it.

An other one possibly good comparable (movie with a close to 100m foreign performance, probably end up close to 100m in OS-China) Baby driver vs American Made OW, comparable market Australia $ 3,505,756.00 $ 1,696,902.00 48% Bulgaria $ 33,055.00 $ 63,847.00 193% Croatia $ 93,167.00 $ 28,376.00 30% Czech Republic $ 93,463.00 $ 79,822.00 85% Denmark $ 239,564.00 $ 177,266.00 74% Egypt $ 55,802.00 $ 54,789.00 98% Estonia $ 36,763.00 $ 64,594.00 176% Israel $ 256,606.00 $ 165,805.00 65% Latvia $ 23,437.00 $ 18,315.00 78% Lithuania $ 45,034.00 $ 35,644.00 79% New Zealand $ 417,430.00 $ 144,164.00 35% Norway $ 323,942.00 $ 198,028.00 61% Poland $ 246,283.00 $ 377,681.00 153% Romania $ 102,697.00 $ 171,139.00 167% Slovakia $ 53,051.00 $ 42,530.00 80% Slovenia $ 9,999.00 $ 9,552.00 96% Sweden $ 390,098.00 $ 370,543.00 95% Taiwan $ 518,118.00 $ 892,509.00 172% United Kingdom $ 4,535,173.00 $ 1,374,742.00 30% Vietnam $ 155,190.00 $ 116,551.00 75% Total $ 11,134,628.00 $ 6,082,799.00 55% Adding those early number of last weekend: Spain was the top opener at No. 2 with $1.4M, followed by the Netherlands at $469K. Asia bows include Malaysia($369K), Singapore ($327K) and Thailand ($157K). BD / AA Spain: 0.84m/1.4m Netherlands: 0.72m/0.469m Malaysia: 0.636m / 0.369m Singapore: .173m / .327m JR 1 JR2 Spain: 1.5m / .74m Netherlands: 2.0m / .512m Malaysia: .423m/ .9m Singapore: 1.4m / .64m Totals in those 4 new market BD: 2.36m AA: 2.56m JR2: 2.8m JR: 5.323m Still point out to a 75m type of performance imo, but you could be right it could be close (UK ow is what hurt it mostly in that comparative and could make it look like worst than it is) and Cruise movie could be bigger than those comparable in some market.

American Made vs Jack Reacher 2 list of market that were used ( I simply used all the market that both movie had OW numbers on mojo) Australia $ 1,696,902 $ 2,021,129 Bulgaria $ 63,847 $ 64,869 Czech Republic $ 79,822 $ 60,725 Denmark $ 177,266 $ 224,438 Indonesia $ 728,777 $ 1,973,875 Israel $ 165,805 $ 286,806 New Zealand $ 144,164 $ 319,084 Norway $ 198,028 $ 261,687 Poland $ 377,681 $ 151,803 Romania $ 171,139 $ 237,209 Slovakia $ 42,530 $ 39,413 Slovenia $ 9,552 $ 13,774 Sweden $ 370,543 $ 390,788 Taiwan $ 892,509 $ 1,579,563 United Kingdom $ 1,374,742 $ 3,283,778 Total $ 6,493,307 $ 10,908,941 American Made vs Jack Reacher 1 Australia $ 1,696,902.00 $ 3,083,490.00 Bulgaria $ 63,847.00 $ 80,635.00 Croatia $ 28,376.00 $ 40,966.00 Czech Republic $ 79,822.00 $ 90,272.00 Denmark $ 177,266.00 $ 274,246.00 Egypt $ 54,789.00 $ 38,384.00 Lithuania $ 35,644.00 $ 27,071.00 Indonesia $ 728,777.00 $ 752,407.00 Israel $ 165,805.00 $ 163,983.00 New Zealand $ 144,164.00 $ 379,341.00 Norway $ 198,028.00 $ 470,136.00 Poland $ 377,681.00 $ 101,748.00 Slovakia $ 42,530.00 $ 39,410.00 Slovenia $ 9,552.00 $ 21,037.00 Sweden $ 370,543.00 $ 646,148.00 United Kingdom $ 1,374,742.00 $ 5,752,639.00 Total $ 5,548,468.00 $ 11,961,913.00 To make has much has JR2 sound like an optimistic target.

In the domestic market it does not work much like that (kind of doubt that it work like that in many market at all), the if the movie is good people will see it does not hold much (barely at all), there is almost no correlation between Rotten tomatoes and box office for example (you need to work quite a bit to find one), look at logan lucky, Nice guys, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, Brudge, being a good movie is not in any way any guarantee of success and being a bad movie not in any way mean that it will fail. If it would work you would just need to re-release old good movie to make a fortune at the box office, obviously there is much more going on that good/bad, it is in industry made into tricking us at paying a giant premium for a movie just for the very fact that it is a new one. Why would anyone go see a movie if it is good, how will it know that a movie is good before actually seeing it ? That where marketing/release date matter a lot. There is much better weekend than others, big 4 days holiday, big summer spot, Christmas time that studio fight for right away sometime more than a year in advance (well known 4 year's in advance with those long franchise release planned) and the biggest title/biggest star achieve to get those, after they goes for the second tier weekend and fight for them and so on. It is a lot about building comparable, in the last 20 year's, 14 similar movie used the exact same weekend and did well 80% of the time. Use that one, it is executive/studio building a list of reason trying to control what will happen with a movie, so if it flop they can give reason why they lowered the chance for that happening and if it work they can give reason why they should get some credits. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dump_months

WW

Black Swan was looking to be a success month before release, people did dress up in Black Swan costume at Halloween 2 month before the release, it had the teenage girl audience invested in advance and connected with the masses in a way you cannot ever predict a movie will (Weinstein thought the movie could do 70m), specially something that connected with the masses pretty much everywhere around the world like that. If the talk about shocking violent visual are true, I would imagine the chance of an actual box office hit are very low (if you are talking about making over 150m WW), but the chance of a massive success (over 70m ww) are still there. Absolutely need the reviews to get out to have any ideas imo if it could have legs. Marketing that does not explicitly say what the movie high concept is and/or protagonist goal to potentially root for could be tend to be a risky affair vs clear one (say Get out being a lot in the title, split also or Happy death day that have one or 2 of those element giving to the audience right away in the marketing). That maybe ok (or maybe not have really other option with what the movie is), but that does not usually bring high first weekend, they are and hard sales and better have good reviews/free awareness to help it, but in the range they probably trying to make the movie open it is not a big deal. Has of now, not sure how much the marketing work on someone that is not fan of some of previous Aronofsky works (and it is impossible to put myself in the position of a person like that for me, obviously), a fan will give it all the benefit of the doubt about the unknow and if the movie tone/aesthetic look nice become a must see if the reviews make it sound interesting, but for someone that never watched is stuff or do not remember/cared that much... not so sure yet. For the financial sake of the movie, the next full 2 minutes trailer that will play before IT and the last TV one the week of the release should be more attractive to a not pre-sold audience imo.

20th Century Women domestic box office: 5.66m, 6.5m WW Florence Foster Jenkins: 27.38m / 48.9m WW In fact in term of box office for nominated best actress all movies were smaller except La la land: 19 La La Land LG/S $90,487,402 1,865 $50,461,955 3,236 $10,152,446 1,733 $151,101,803 12/09 94 Florence Foster Jenkins Par. $27,383,770 1,528 - - - - $27,383,770 8/12 124 Jackie FoxS $11,331,060 359 $2,387,647 508 $241,687 112 $13,960,394 12/02 145 Loving Focus $7,697,414 572 $12,820 33 - - $7,710,234 11/04 195 Elle SPC $1,606,158 209 $612,264 147 $123,112 147 $2,341,534 11/11 Her movie was more seen than 50% of the best actress nominated movie in the last 10 year's and i really doubt that it was a flop. And the random academy voters care..... ? I don't think they get a cut. Or are you talking about the Globes ? That is true, she has been nominated only 20 time in the last 42 year's (she had a feature film released every year after 1980), so she only get in around 50% of the time. That said, have you seen the transformation: In Spielberg movie, with that subject, no one unseen is a sure bet obviously, but Streep in Paper is almost as close as it can get.

Does it has a China release ? jack Reacher: 138.3m Jack Reacher 2: 103.4m Market to market first weekend comparison (using what is available on box office mojo) American Made vs Jack Reacher 1 5.5m vs 11.96 (for market that have totaled 34m for Jack Reacher) American Made vs Jack Reacher 2 6.5m vs 10.9m (for market that have totaled 26.7m for Jack Reacher 2) AA opened around 46% of JR 1 and 60% of JR 2, so a 65 to 75m oversea performance would not surprise me, better legs are to be expected because it is not a franchise movie, but that would require to over perform over JR 2 in yet to release market quite a bit and beat is legs quite a bit.

The book goes really in The Wire/Spotlight level of spy craft on the realistic day to day working of an spy, haning inside embassy, days of work just to meet a contact without being followed and so on, political thriller with some action sequence and they should not be Mission Impossible/Bond set piece type, more like Bournes first movie fight scene. The love story is also a big element. The book is also a 2 header, not necessarily female-centric, Joel Edgerton is a big characther with almost half the story told from is point of view. Will obviously depend what they will focus on and how it will be adapted, but it should not be Atomic Blonde/John Wick type of action movie, not Tinker Tailor Soldier either, closer to the middle, to something like Salt being maybe the closer equivalent that come to mind, but more realistic and grounded in the current days Putin Russia actualities and news.

Or with mother! ?

The episodes they directed were quite above average on that show and they had an obvious talent (Sony installed them on their lot, paid them a fortune with employees just to think about movies), but TV director on an established show just have a small imprint on their episode that could have never guess it was them doing those marvel movie if I was not told. I can see the genre staring different already establish character of Community/Southpark/etc... that is talking about, would still not have been able to point their influence if no one would point it out to me (and I watched all communities episode at least 2 times)

People that have watched You me and the dupree and Welcome to Collinwood, when they watch Winter Soldier or Civil War would say to themselve that the same director isn't it, I see their auteurship if their names would not have been on the credits ? Not a rethorical question since I have never seen Welcome to Collinwood and do not remember much of you me and the dupree, what would be the influence that you see from them in those marvel movies ?

In a mechanical way every movie getting a campaign reduce every other movie chance if they are a bit similar, Apes and Logan are quite similar (bleak serious blockbuster), so I would yes it hurt Logan chance, Star Wars chance if it is good, Wonder Woman chance, etcv...

The fact that even Denzel play very domestic heavy versus every other non comedic a-lister could be seen has a sign thought. He never won any Bafta either. Denzel in is career has a 55/45 dbo/foreign ratio. Other A-lister not to far from is age group: Pitt: 26/74 (Pitt was crazy big foreign market wise) Depp: 37/63 Damon: 45/55 Hanks: 46/54 Denzel: 55/45 That why you can read an e-mail like this: https://wikileaks.org/sony/emails/emailid/40707 No, I am not saying the Equalizer should not have been made or that African American actors should not have been used......I am also saying that since 2010 all of Denzel's pictures have grossed approximately 40% from international (2 Guns, Flight, Safe House, and The Book of Eli), expect Unstoppable which was ~51%. In a marketplace in which international is ~65% of theatrical gross (70% according to the MPAA), the decisions on this project were not great. I think they should have either made it for less, or not cast Denzel. But I also did read in the past that Denzel rarely accept to travel for promotions, so that could just because of that and people over analyzing is lack of foreign appeal.

It is in part a self-fulling prophecy, in the leaked sony e-mail you can read foreign distributor when talking about a movie prospect/marketing strategy and budget that sadly black cast do not play well in their market if it is not Will Smith. I don't think that they tend to push them as much in some market. In many case that can be true, very american centrist theme in general will also play a factor over the humor that need to travel factor, a movie like Brad Pitt Moneyball played 70/30 dbo/foreign, because it is a baseball movie that will not make sense elsewhere even if Pitt is one of the biggest star of all time oversea. Not too far from Straight Outta Compton 80/20 and other movie that will make little sense to people outside the US, I misunderstood a lot of it, when they were saying east/west I thought they were talking about pacific ocean coast and Atlantic ocean coast, not different part of the same city separated by an highway. And movies with a lot of black actor often have a very american centrist theme to them (Detroit, The Help, Hidden Figures being a good example of that) being an other factor, than comedy or not. Example of comedy (they tend to be domestic heavy even with a white cast like Futurist said) Anchorman 94/6 Step Brother 78/22 Trainwreck 78/22 Anchorman 2 73/27 The other guy 70/30 Jump Street 68/32 Daddy Home 62/38 The hangover 60/40 Bridemaids 58/41 Neighbors 55/45 Rought Night did a 50/50 split, (mostly because it flopped, normally would have been more domestic heavy) Some example of movie with a cast with many black actor No Good deed 96/4 Think like a man 95/5 Help 78/22 Hidden Figures was 73/26 But the very international Rocky franchise had a drastic domestic shift with Creed, so maybe there is something to it or it could simply be that star power is more important oversea for US movies and not having a star in the lead role was the change, not the skin color. Rocky 4: 43/57 Rocky 5: 34/66 Rocky 6: 45/55 Rocky 7: 63/36 (Creed)

Definitely not lucky, the majority of is last 9 releases did not do 1 million at the box office and the only 2 non-rotten one didn't play in theater in the domestic market. Some had good element (like a cure for wellness cinematography, Valerian, etc...). When someone say actor X is not a draw, need to remember that it is implying not more of a draw than Dane Dehaan. RATING TITLE CREDIT BOX OFFICE YEAR 10% Tulip Fever Jan Van Loos — 2017 51% Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets Valerian $39.7M 2017 42% A Cure For Wellness Lockhart $8.2M 2017 46% Knight of Cups Paul $0.4M 2016 86% Two Lovers and a Bear Roman — 2016 61% Life James Dean — 2015 44% Life After Beth Zach Orfman — 2014 24% Devil's Knot Chris Morgan $0.2M 2014 52% The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Harry Osborn/Green Goblin $183.3M 2014

Not a bad point (never thought about that)

I imagine the idea was to do it was almost exclusively for the China market (where 3D is relevant) ? Titanic 3D made 145m there in 2012..... I think we need to wait for this to open in China market (in 2018 ?) to really judge it.

Seniors have more chance to be annoying and to talk during the movie, but they peak much lower in how annoying they get.

You are right (not sure why I thought), but very small percentage of the audience were 16 or below, at least first weekend those were 90%+ 17 and up people in the audience.

That was said to be filled of humor and fun, no ?.... It take much more than a controversial subject matter for a movie to be controversial. Nothing can came close to something like Jesus in term of controversy in a original movie I would imagine, but the movie need to be talked about and seen to create some controversy, because nothing controversial is in the marketing material that would come after the OD and can just effect the OW by some multiplier effect.