Taruseth

If we go by € then the difference is far crazier. Titanic probably had about 7m?. And Hobbit1, HP1, Lotr1 all had a bit below 7m. TFA had 6.74m Avatar 2 will double that.

Insidekino Forum reads similar: 1100k (+3%) Utterly insane. Just -5% compared to (4-day) OWend. Not that those are fair comparisons but Avatar's 4th Wend was down 30% and Titanic's was up! 3%. Both had really good post holiday legs though - if Avatar is anywhere close to that - wow. Avatar was pretty steady from 4th trough 8th weekend though and Titanic was, well, Titanic. The Nazis also hurt the science sector in Germany.

won't be easy. Needs great holds in Germany and not so good in France.

Really interested if he will change the total prediction to 9m (or maybe even more). Even just following ROs drops from here it would get to roughly 8.15m. Avatar - path to 10m: OD: 174k OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k) OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k) 2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k) (-36%) 2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k) 3rd Wend: 1067k (Total 4716k) (+167k/+166k) (+45%)(differences due to rounding) 3rd Wdays: 660k (Total 5380k) (+110k/+280k) 4th Wend: 1070k (Total 6450k) (+320k/+600k) (+0%) 4th Wdays: 220k (Total 6670k) (+70k/+670k) 5th Wend: 800k (Total 7470k) (+300k/+970k) (-25%) 5th Wdays: 160k (Total 7630k) (+60k /+1030k) 6th Wend: 650k (Total 8280k) (+250k /+1280k) (-19%) 6th Wdays: 120k (Total 8400k) (+70k/+1350k) 7th Wend: 450k (Total 8850k) (+200k/+1550k) (-31%) 7th Wdays: 80k (Total 8930k) (+50k/+1600k) 8th Wend: 300k (Total 9230k) (+150k/+1750k) (-33%) 8th Wdays: 60k (Total 9290k) (+40k/+1790k) 9th Wend: 200k (Total 9490k) (+100k/+1890k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend 9th Wdays: 40k (Total 9530k) (+20k/+1910k) 10th Wend: 150k (Total 9680k) (+70k/+1980k)(-25%) 10th Wdays: 30k (Total 9710k) (+15k/+1995k) After that another 300k for 10010k (+50k/+2045k) total ATP 13.1€ and ≈131m € ≈ $140m Comp to Avatar with rereleases (adm/€/$): -14% / +10%/-??%

Yeah, the largest movie after SW7 was Frozen 2 (6.8m admissions). Agree, but I don't want to jinx it. Nonetheless, 6.38m after this weekend is really great and 2m more should most likely happen after this weekend. (Could probably drop close to 40% next weekend and still have a solid shot at 8m)

That's not going to happen, the 2nd weekend was below 1m (735k). Nonetheless, if it manages 1m during the 4th weekend, that would be just the second 4th weekend above 1m (the other is Titanic). And it would have 3 1m weekends, not many movies besides Titanic have managed that: Harry Potter 1, LotR 1,2,3, Hobbit 1, Independence Day, Ice Age 3.

900k from that is pretty much exactly the same multi as Rogue One got. PiB doing so well is really nice to see.

I think Tuesday. It does. 1m will be really, really, really hard - but I don't want to say impossible. I just wouldn't expect it 850-900k would already be really great.

In Austria its past 600k admissions.

Okay, I guess, 640k weekdays won't be easy though with that. Probably more like 550k for the weekdays.

Needs 1,283,724 Admissions for that. Taking RO weekdays to the weekend ratio for 3rd week, the weekdays should be 640k and the following weekend 735k, that alone would mean 6090k.

A lock? I wouldn't say something that absolute, but I agree it's highly likely. I thought about the coming weeks again and I am still thinking it's heading towards 9m, but I might have overshot how likely that is (probably like 30-40% right now) - still wouldn't rule out 10m (like 10%) - we have to know how it will hold next weekend. If it drops to like 700k then 8m is probably the ceiling, if it gets to 1000k it should approach 9m and maybe, maybe even can get past that. Rogue One dropped 31% for Avatar 2 which would mean a 735k weekend, but that would spell trouble because Rogue One had Passenger opening on that weekend, which opened with 413k - probably more than any movie opening in January will make in total. - unless maybe ??? surprised during the last January weekend. So a clearer January should mean better holds on top of it already holding way, way better than RO.

$51,111,111 Best 4th weekend ever

Yeah - needs 103m for #3 that's 8m (or less) and it's very likely it gets there (like 90%). I think even in admissions there is a solid shot at most adm. since Avatar in 2009 - it needs 9.2m for that - before this weekend I was pretty certain it will fall short - now I'd say it's the area where it's headed. And maybe it even gets to @Bruce idea of becoming #1 - that would need an insane 9.8m admissions and is made even harder by Titanic getting a rerelease.

Happy New Year everyone 1050k - wow - I am starting to hope for 1m next weekend (sounds crazy - I know, but considering how much better it's holding than RO). If Avatar 2 manages 742k over the weekdays it would get the best 3rd week ever. If it manages 640k over the weekdays it would get the second-best 3rd week ever (only behind the first Harry Potter). I know that 1m 4th weekend would be the 2nd best 4th weekend ever - only behind Titanic, but one can hope.

I'd like to say 3rd, but: 2nd place for OWend is 27.2% behind 3rd weekend is 24.1% behind, but 2nd place is Avatar! not a movie that's just a year old. The record holder for 3rd weekend: 1997 Titanic 33.3m 2002 Spider-Man: 45m 2009 Avatar 68.5m (still in second place!) 2015 TFA 90.24 So it's a lot more steady. But I'd say Avatar 3 has a chance (more favourable weekend placement: no New Year's Eve on that weekend) and it opens a couple of months before Avengers: Kang Dynasty - which is the next movie I think has a chance at OWend record. The 2nd-weekend record could also hold out until at least then: It's still TFA - and no movie has a shot currently - next year nothing looks big enough and the same goes for the following year - until Avatar 3, but I think Avatar 3 will fall short and actually, I doubt that Avengers Kang Dynasty will do it - even if it manages to break Endgames OWend record, I think it's going to fall short of the second weekend of Endgame and TFA with it - so we might actually see the 2nd hold even longer.

I like your optimism I am not there yet though - thinking 8m should happen and its heading for 8.5m; though to be honest today doesn't look as bad as new years eve should (or normally does) - so I hope you are right - 9.17m would make it the biggest movie since the first Avatar (with ATP 13€ that would be €119m - so right where the first ended up (with the 2010 and 2022 rereleases)).

You are so quick - and even if it barely misses the 3rd weekend for 10th place on 4th weekend only about 680k are needed.

Saturday Trend: Avatar: 1000k! (that makes 8m more likely). Puss in Boots 2: 205k Hotzenplotz: 90k Oskars Kleid: 75k I wanna dance with somebody: 42.5k Schule der magischen Tiere 2: 35k (I think this is the 14th week in the Top 10) Was man von hier aus sehen kann: 27.5k Top Gun stayed in the Top 10 for 18 weeks and Minions for 16 weeks. And maybe - maybe we might see Avatar getting to 9m - like 1 % chance.

400k on Thursday (or a little less) - 5.2m € -> ATP only a little above 13 € (that's low) In 2016 RO had the following weekend drops -55% then +2% and -31% (dropping to second place about 25 % behind Passenger). Avatar has done -36% and now about +22 %. Will it be able to do -15% for 750k next weekend? My hope for the future: Avatar: OD: 174k OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k) OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k) 2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k) 2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k) 3rd Wend: 900k (Total 4550k) 3rd Wdays: 550k (Total 5100k) 4th Wend: 750k (Total 5850k) (-17%) 4th Wdays: 150k (Total 6000k) 5th Wend: 500k (Total 6500k) (-33%) 5th Wdays: 100k (Total 6600k) 6th Wend: 400k (Total 7000k) (-20%) 6th Wdays: 50k (Total 7050k) 7th Wend: 250k (Total 7300k) (-38%) 7th Wdays: 30k (Total 7330k) 8th Wend: 150k (Total 7480k) (-40%) 8th Wdays: 20k (Total 7500k) 9th Wend: 100k (Total 7600k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend 9th Wdays: 20k (Total 7620k) 10th Wend: 80k (Total 7700k) (-20%) 10th Wdays: 15k (Total 7715k) After that another 250k for 7965k total and ≈103m € ≈ $109m

Won't happen. Admissions are impossible: The Jungle Book has 27.3m and Titanic has 18.8m (only movies after 1958 considered) all others below 15m. In € Titanic with 126.6m and Avatar with 119.2m are also pretty safe. Third place TFA with 102.7m might be reached, but that would need 7.7-7.8m admissions. And $ won't work either because Avatar had incredible ER (so did like $160-170m). Right now I'd say 7.5m admissions and €99-100m (~$105m) - and I am probably on the more optimistic side.

Avatar 2 weekdays: 1100k (total 3650k) That's great. Apparently, yesterday was the best day since Covid-19 started. So maybe it can increase on the weekend. At least today and tomorrow should be really good. So 800k (hopefully more) - wouldn't be surprised with 700k though.

So 735k (total 2547.5k) Puss: 147.5k Witney: 40k (ouch) So can Avatar 2 get 800k next weekend? Following RO it would get to around 750k - or will it drop to 700k?

$55,555,555

I think there is a very solid chance for 1m (like 85 %) - I hope for a bit more. If we take Rogue One's weekend-to-weekday-ratio Avatar ends with 1003k over the weekdays. Hoping for a better ratio - but I am not that certain. On the table - yes - likely - not really. The coming weekdays and the following weekend should give us a lot better idea. Saturday*