Taruseth

Okay, that makes sense, initially thought the inclusion of a musical is slightly weird as musicals are pretty un-diverse (at least from the audience side). Question is if white liberals aren't making up a large part of the audience of other musicals too. I'd guess they do as college educated white by now tend to lean liberal. And the average person that watches a musical is a white, college educated (high income) women.

Black Panther audience demographic was something like 37 % black, 35 % white, while Hamilton is more like 5 % black and 80 % white. Musicals are over indexing for white and asian people. Even more in other areas: The musical audience is college educated (like 80 % with 45+% holding an advanced degree) and has a high (to very high) income. But for movies diversity certainly is a thing studios are looking at.

Maybe I am completely wrong, but Disney seems to always have large budgets for everything, while a lot of other studies try to produce somewhat "cheap" movies (from a cost perspective). Despite DC not doing well and Marvel doing below the craze leading up to 2019, I don't think that superhero movies are or will die out soon. Hopefully DC take time to reorganize their movie universe and get a proper start on it.

Yeah, they are associated with Kids movies after all. Unfortunate that with WDAS being in a rut both Marvel and SW (especially the later) are doing as well (SW fell off a cliff and there is nothing coming). The real problem for Disney is that in the 2000s Pixar picked up while WDAS slacked after all this incredible 90s movies. But Pixar brought (from 1999 onward) Toy Story 2, Monster AG, Finding Nemo, Incredibles, Cars, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3 - that is an insane run (2011 with Cars 2 - push, that wasn't it) and even from 2015-2019 Pixar had Inside Out, Finding Dory, Coco, Incredibles 2 and Toy Story 4 (but also the bombs Arlo & Spot and Cars 2), so they too are in a really bad period right now and weren't in the past decade.

And then Germany with like a bit above $2M - just sad, didn't expect it to be such a disaster here. 215k adm according to insidekino.de predictions. (TLK did 921k, Aladdin 292k, Dumbo 155k, B&tB 864k, TJB 460k, Alice II 199k, Cinderella 274k, Maleficent 359k were the other big Disney LA remakes). So we could be looking at a potential sub $10m and a final total barely above (or maybe even below) the 4-day Oweekend of TLK.

Wow - Creed 1 hat 341k admissions total and the second had 608k - this should get to 1m (probably more). Hopefully it will get there.

I think there is a chance for Ant-Man to drop below Avatar on the coming weekend.

To not enter the Top 10 Ant-Man would need $34,963,461 (or more) on the weekend. For entering the top 5 it would need to have a weekend below $32,826,656. A drop of exactly 70% would be a $31,832,895 2nd weekend. And to replace HP VIII it would need to do less than $29,741,541. So we probably will see a new record. 7.7m 13.0m 8.0m = 28.7m (-73%). After having an opening weekend 141% larger than that of Uncharted its second weekend would only be 25% larger.

??? - that's crazy so it has a solid chance at doing the same as the 2007 and 2009 version combined - and like tripple of what I expected. Ant-Man isn't that awful - it's bad but if compared to other countries its doing quite well here. Nice Avatar hold - close to 9.7m. Could end up around 10.1(-10.3m). €137.4m(-€140m)

That means the 4day could come in below 300k - that would be pretty bad (obviously good compared to the other two Ant-Man but overall that isn't a good opening) - might mean that 1m isn't certain.

Hope for a bigger weekend for Avatar 2. Tuesday should be big for Titanic - presales look really, really good - hoping for 30k on Tuesday alone (with a shot at 50k).

I didn't think Magic Mike would be this Ladies night heavy (I know that the previous were really ladies night heavy to but xxl at least only did 30 % during Previews, this would mean 40% during previews). The Avatar, ??? and PiB drops are all pretty ugly. Expect the bad drops next weekend.

Agree with you - maybe a bit above 50k. I am kinda surprised how badly Magic Mike seems to be doing - I know that they aren't big movies, but I kinda was expecting more - seems like it will stay below 200k (expected a bit above and a chance at beating Avatar 2). But seems like Avatar 2 will get a ninth week on top. Ant-Man and the wasp opened with 198k - So the new one will open with 200k? (Maybe more) and most likely will get #1 (different to the last which opened behind Mamma Mia 2 and Hotel Transylvania 3).

Avatar 2 probably needs to stay above 225k to stay #1. Think something like 200k for Mike and 150k (to less) for Titanic right now.

So a magic mike movie might kick avatar from first place - let's hope Avatar manages two incredible holds and stay #1 next weekend (or gets replaced by Titanic).

According to imdb it's supposed to get a release in March.

Honestly by now I hope Die Schule der magischen Tiere 2 reaches a golden ticket (3m admissions - will be really, really hard - but that would be incredible). any idea where Avatar 2 is headed in Austria?

http://www.insidekino.de/News.htm €116.65m apparently. after next weekend it would be at ~€122m. So it most likely will get there (99%). The big question is how well Titanic will do - if it adds 1 or 2m then that won't change anything. 130m should definitely be reached by A2 (about 9.6m adm).

Close to 400k but not quite. So there is at least a solid chance at 300k (or above) next weekend and a total of close to 9000k after next weekend (9m might be also be reached on Monday). 80k weekdays 310k weekend would be 9000k. Should then leg it out to 10m but not much more.

Hoping for 400k.

It's about 275k behind this right now: OD: 174k OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k) OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k) 2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k) (-36%) 2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k) 3rd Wend: 1067k (Total 4716k) (+45%)(differences due to rounding) 3rd Wdays: 661k (Total 5378k) 4th Wend: 1133k (Total 6510k) (+63k/+60k) (+6%) 4th Wdays: 200k (Total 6710k) (+20k/+40k) 5th Wend: 742k (Total 7452k) (-58k/-18k) (-35%) 5th Wdays: 151k (Total 7603k) (-9k /-27k) 6th Wend: 508k (Total 8111k) (-142k /-169k) (-32%) 6th Wdays: 100k (Total 8210k) (-20k/-190k) 7th Wend: 360k (Total 8570k) (-90k/-280k) (-29%) 7th Wdays: 70k (Total 8640k) (-10k/-290k) 8th Wend: 270k (Total 8910k) (-30k/-320k) (-25%) 8th Wdays: 50k (Total 8960k) (-10k/-330k) 9th Wend: 200k (Total 9160k) (+0k/-330k) (-26%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend 9th Wdays: 40k (Total 9200k) (+0k/-330k) 10th Wend: 150k (Total 9350k) (+0k/-330k)(-25%) 10th Wdays: 30k (Total 9380k) (+0k/-330k) After that another 400k for 9780k (+100k/-230k) total ATP 13.5€ and ≈132m € ≈ $141m ATP doesn't seem to really be dropping (ATP last weekend was €14,04 but over its whole run its a bit above €13.5). I still think it has a very solid shot (at least 50%) for 10m, but it has become more likely again, that it will stop short by a little. Especially if this weekend comes in around 400k that would be really helpful and next weekend around 300-320k it would make 10m chance a lot higher. Its performing a bit like a better Hobbit - great Christmas legs that don't really cary over (different to Avatar or Titanic).

That would still make it the lowest January since 1997 (apart from 2020 and 2021). Though not far off of 2000 or so. Based on that there is still a long way to go.

Still thinking 10m are possible, but 11m have become a lot, lot less likely. But 10m and €135m≈ $145m would still be utterly incredible. Hopefully A3 can do 9m.

Its ahead of both Titanic and Avatar in Norway?

A5 will do 10b (joking 4B should be the target 🤣).