Taruseth

Avatar 720k

Unless today turns out kinda week - the weekend has to come in higher - yesterday honestly looked really good (for a Christmas eve) - at least for Avatar.

Sorry, yeah, you are completely right. 2.45m after Sunday -> 480k weekdays So next weekday around 900k - hoping for more.

Not necessarily: Saturday (the strongest day is dead) and Sunday (2nd strongest is muted) - Monday through Wednesday next week should be insane though. 22nd: 200k 23rd: 260k 24th: 40k 25th: 180k For Rogue One in 2016, the second set of weekdays was 70% higher than the first - for Avatar that would mean 1150k (that would be among the best weekdays ever - thinking the record is around 1270-1300k or though) if you look at the second weekdays with the second weekend you would end up with just 900k for the weekdays. Next weekend should stay flat or see an increase (so the range is 600-700k). After that, it would be at 4400-4500k (and above Minions). Rouge One did about 1088k after its third weekend of a 460k weekend, so Avatar should at least do 1400-1650k for 5800-6150k. I'd expect it to come in higher though.

Christmas day effects Sunday

I'd say lower on Saturday, higher on Sunday - local cinema (Germany) has two showing on Christmas Eve (around noon) but 8 on Christmas Day - its not a booster as its in the US, but it isn't hurting as much as Christmas Eve (27th and 28th have 12 shows - so the viewings are pushed back to 27-30th of December). Outside of Europe the changes are probably less extreme. But honestly the two Christmas Eve shows are pretty full already.

Saturday and Sunday give me hope for 25th through 8th January. I'd agree - with 14 $ per ticket that would be $84M - 7 M would be $98M - and more with higher ATP and / or better ER. Obviously hoping for $100M (€100M would be even better). Current top 5 in €: 1. Titanic: ~126M 2. Avatar: 119.2M 3. TFA: 102.7M 4. Jungle Book: ~~91.8M 5. LotR 1: 83.1M Of the 8 movies above 70m three are the LotR movies.

Depends on what exactly you mean - 5x the 4-day should happen, 5x the 5-day won't be as easy - would be great though - 100m total. 3.78 I think - they were overall kinda underwhelming though and came from a much larger OWend than A2.

And Monday looks like 150k. Really good.

Great, but that teaser trailer was so epic, that it makes this look kinda pale (only in comparison though).

Apparently its looking to come in on the high end with 425k - probably even 450k (which would be really great). No previews so 450k 4-day weekend. Probably 100k tomorrow (should be significantly more)?

Yeah 16€ during the weekend (though the Cinestar card helps a lot). Insane.

Maybe Minions can leg it out to 4m adm and TG:M to 3.7m - even without the Kinofest both had really good legs - I know that next weekend drops will be ugly, but think both could have a shot, though I'd say it should be easier for Minions and TG:M will end around 3.65m, still more than twice of what I expected during OWend.

TGM being #1 is incredible.

TGM should definitely do 3.5m Minions should get past 3.75m

Looks quite nice overall. Must all be from the south and east, in Lower Saxony east of Bremen there wasn't a drop of rain, but it was colder and cloudier that probably was enough for a little boost. Next weekend probably will look bad again and then hopefully the summer is over and we get some nice fall rain.

Minions should get to 3.75m I'd expect it to hit 3.5m. Haven't really done a potential future run for either of these movies in quite a while. Might have to look into what weekends are to come and what movies will open to get a rough idea where they could be headed.

Don't worry, after OD I said 400k OWend (did 530k) and 1.6m total in Germany - it'll do twice that 3.2m (should actually get a bit further than it).

in Lübeck Bullettrain has 36 sold for tomorrow across 4 shows, while Gugelhupf has sold 19 across 2 shows. In LÜBECK! in Northern Germany, that is way closer than I expected. Especially considering that two movies ago there were like 2 shows for the whole run.

Nice holds.

Yeah, it recovered quite well. Will probably get to 1.6m JWD should definitely get to 2m (maybe even 2.1m). Minions and TGM will both easily get past 3m (no idea where they are headed? 3.5m?) FB3 still looks like it will fall barely short, its at 2940k and with open air and the likes it could get another 20 maybe 30k for 2970k, missing just 30k for the 3m.

Political problems in italy are coming at like the worst possible moment so they potentially could have some influence for the rest of europe (regarding monetary policies etc. - we can't really let italy jump of a cliff, its a bit too large and has a bit too much debt (second largest only behind France)). And for Avatar Italy was around 3.5% not that much, but still. It adds up, is what I am trying to say. (And maybe me being from Europe had something to do with it too.) TLK did weirdly bad in Germany. Hopefully you are right. Are tickets that cheap in Italy? I guess that for Avatar 5m in Germany should translate to 60m maybe even 65m. Even though with how dynamic the situation overall is, no idea how everything will look like in December.

5m is my baseline and the 11m is gigantic out-performer - since then only Intouchables and TFA have gotten somewhat close. And the environment is awful with inflation and energy problems and a big amount of uncertainty. NWH (and Endgame) were out-performers too, the next highest is Infinity War with 3.5m (among Marvel movies). Outside of NTTD and NWH Germany isn't exactly on a run right now box office wise. It could go either way, if the situation turns out to be overall "okay" it can certainly do a lot more.

No idea. TGM did exceptionally well in Australia, New Zealand and the UK, but those are markets that it think will turn out incredibly well for Avatar too. But I think Germany should turn out way more for Avatar than it did for TGM which will end up around 30m, Avatar should at least do double and that would mean around 5m adm. so a 55% drop. I expect the ATP for Avatar to be substantially higher due to 3D and an even bigger pressure to watch it in IMAX etc. Same for Italy and Spain.

The first was absolutely gigantic in EU+EEA+CH+UK+Japan - great ER and a sky high ATP. about 1.1b in those. Incl. 175m in France, 170m in Jp, 162m in Ger and 151m in UK (107m in Spain and 93 in Italy). The drop from that could be utterly awful -it would now translate to something around 750m (or a bit higher). And on top it did 116m in Russia, wouldn't count on that. And then the situation is overall rather bad, with inflation, energy crisis and on top political problems in Italy. Doubtful any of those will relax in the next few months. The admission numbers of Avatar will probably be incredibly hard to reach, I think they will probably drop quite substantially, but that should be mostly covered by increases in ticket price. Nonetheless I hope that area can get around 600m - meaning with the other countries which ignoring Russia did around 600m for Avatar there is a chance at it getting close to 1B OS-Ch, right now I wouldn't count on it though. I am most optimistic about this in China and the US. And least in Italy, Spain etc. I think the drops there will be even worse than in France and Germany.