Taruseth

So in € the top 4 should be Manitu, Titanic and Avatar and Avatar 2.

And TFA should be done by Thursday (maybe Friday). Thinking the target will get raised to 9750k Can Puss in Boots get to 2000k? I think it has a solid chance by now. 4 3+m movies 4 2-3m movies 4 1.5-2m movies 8 1-1.5m movies for 2022 - that's bad but at least something. Maybe Schule continues running until summer and gets to 3m (highly unlikely as its at 2550k adm and does like 30k weekends) - but its holding on.

Those are two ambitious goals. For now I stick with 1,2m and 10m and the notion that Austria seems to pull ahead more.

Thanks. They calculated with an ER of 1€=$1.6 for Welcome to the Sticks - wow.

According to insidekino.de Endgame is #26 (http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm ). How did you come up with 144.4m €? (That would be around 10.6m adm.) If Germany can do 10m Austria should at least get close to 1.2m (or at least above 1.1m)

Titanic grossed more than Welcome to the sticks in €? In $ at least Welcome to the sticks is first but that also had probably the best ER ever.

IJ 1 (1981): 2499k IJ2 (1984): 3973k IJ3 (1989): 3645k IJ4 (2008): 2848k Mmmh - 3.5m total. Year end list: (A2 ~5.7m after doing like 4.3m? in 2022) Mario: 3.6m (would be the worst #1 ever (outside of 2020) IJ5: 3.5m Panem: 3m (Bold but Panem increased with every movie in Germany - this would be a drop 3 had 4m and 4 had 4.1m adm.) Dune 2: 2.8m Some animation? 2.5m (Universal?) Guardians 3: 2.5m F X: 2.5m Barbie: 2.5m Would make 2023 the fourth year since probably 1950 without a 4m movie, the other years are 2016, 2018 and 2020. (So 2022 seems to have broken that curse with Minions and Avatar). Only 3 movies above 3m would also be the worst outside of 2020 (0x) and 2021 (2x).

So next weekend Cameron will have the whole top 3 in € replacing TFA with Avatar 2. Current top 20 consists of: 6x Middle Earth (Still!) 3x Cameron 3x Star Wars 3x James Bond and the remaining 5 movies are Jungle Book, HP1, Schuh des Manitu, Intouchables and FJG 2. So 7 fantasy movies, 5 Sci-Fi movies, 3 Agent/Action movies and then a mix (Titanic, Jungle Book and Manitu, Intouchables and FJG 2). Outside of FJG2 all 19 movies in the top 20 are good to incredible movies - well the three SW movies aren't that great. Will Cameron be able to have 6 movies in the top 10 in 2029 after A5 - right now the eight place is LotR 2 with €75.5m? Only thread would be a new well setup Middle Earth movie (won't happen - no real source material) or a great new SW movie (unlikely with the over saturation with TV show and the sequels mediocre to bad reception) or a new James Bond (will the next be able to get the same success as the last three? with a new Bond etc.). On the other hand getting A3, 4, and 5 over €76m doesn't exactly sound like an easy task. But A5 might have an ATP of €15 that would mean 5067k admissions would be enough. Biggest threat probably (different to the past) might be Secret Wars (Avengers 6) releasing in 2026 that's quite far out and Endgame had a quiet high ATP.

Crazy - are there any countries apart from Germany where he will control the whole top 3. Right now it is: Titanic: €126.2m Avatar: €119.2m TFA: €102.7m Avatar 2: €100m Jungle Book: €91.8m LotR 1: €83.1m HP: 77.6m On Thursday (or Friday) Avatar 2 should pass TFA (maybe sooner if the weekend (mainly Sunday) ends up being better than expected). The later three are just to illustrate how far away Cameron is from everyone else. If the other three Avatar movies gross more than €76m he could have 6 movies in the top 10. (Current #8 has around €75.5m.

Should happen - without China Endgame did 1307m and Avatar is at 1113m after a 70m weekend (OS-C). So around 200m left to go.

Will need longer for Avatar - Avatar is at almost 120m € - that will take some time. If it is at 100m after today it should get to 102m during the weekdays and then get 8m on the next weekend that means its missing another 10m, so it needs the 7th weekend too and probably the following weekdays. Titanic might be close and Titanic's rerelease makes this even harder to predict. Another thing when I am looking trough the movies opening this year - they all look bad - like no OWEnd will top 1m (so if we split Avatars run then it has the 3 best weekends last year and with its 4th weekend of 1133k probably also the best on this year). Also no idea which movie will be the largest - Mario?

Wow - that that was big enough for this. Still insane that a third are Cameron movies and the only movies managing more than three markets. Maybe he will be able to join that list with 3,4,5 - thinking China should happen for them and hoping for France, UK, SK and Germany.

Thanks - eight movies, that's very few. And 3 Cameron movies.

I think you are correct, it lost Japan, Russia, Spain and Australia. Germany will join this weekend. Endgame hat China, UK and SK. TFA had UK, China and Germany NWH only got 1 (the UK). Is there anymore outside of Titanic that managed 5? And Avatar that got 9. A lot of movies end their run with 1 international market above 100m (mostly china, if not the UK/Japan/France). (and the US is also above 100m🤪.)

Yeah, but Räuber Hotzenplotz (German-Swiss production) is doing somewhat better in Austria too. Around 85k vs 650k. Schule der magischen Tiere 240k vs 2529k (so slightly better in Germany - but difference is kinda small). So German movies do quite often sell well in Austria too (at least currently they do in comparison to Germany). Hui Buh is doing roughly the same, Was man von hier aus sehen kann seems to also do roughly the same.

How f high is the ATP in Austria? roughly €15.15

Right now I'd say France still holds the edge. Around 14m would translate to roughly $147m with your ATP While around 10m in Germany would translate to roughly $142m. Both are going to be far closer to A1 Dollargross than anticipated though - most predictions in the Summer were probably around $70m-$80m.

ATP right now is €13.44. (4th weekend had an ATP of €13.66) - so looks like it might stay around €13.45 ATP.

2023 looks so barren - like there is a chance for Avatar 2 to gross more in this year than any movie being released this year. Avatar got roughly 1.31B last year, so should get 1B this year. Guardians, The Marvels, Aquaman, Fast 10 probably won't do more (thinking Guardians could be the biggest among these. and yet I could see all four ending below 800m) Which big movies am I missing?

I feel like the 10% rule for Austria hasn't really worked in the past year (Austria always did a little more than a tenth of the German box office - because the population is slightly more than a tenth of the German one: ~9m for Austria and 84.3m for Germany - so 10.7% and they were overall slightly more likely to go to the cinema the difference depending on the year being negligible or very small though). 2022 had big outliners like TGM (completely different worlds). And right now most movies are ahead by quite a lot in Austria (PiB should probably be approaching 140k already (more than 40% ahead). Hotzenplotz above 85k etc. Black Panther is around 190k. Right now Oskars Kleid seems to be the only exception. RO had pretty awful late legs and only added around 1.5 its 4th weekend. If we take TFA for example, Avatar would add another 2.78m and end its run with 9.29m - that should definitely be not too hard. It it follow NWH it would add another 4.06m and end with 10.57m. It definitely won't follow the original Avatar though, cause that added around 9.5times its 4th weekend and for Avatar 2 that would mean 10.59m and a 17.1m total. or if you see it differently it did a little more than double its 4th weekend total - even that would mean around 14m for Avatar 2.

Oh, a fellow teacher - but German and history - chemistry and mathematics are far better You do sound like a teacher xD Ich bin aktuell im meinem Referendariat:) Slightly more than doubling the € - that's insane.

Where are you that you get subtitels - I think the cinemas I've been to only show without subtitles and that's good (I find them rather annoying) - at least with English they seem to be rather rare.

This is so painfully true.

I certainly was - but in Germany 5th in admissions in 2019, but at least 2nd in €. And in € it is the 26th biggest movie ever (when it was released it was 23rd place has been passed by The Rise of Skywalker, No Time to Die and Avatar 2 since then). Black Panther is the first MCU movie to gross less than its predecessor (in admissions and €). #12 last year (in admissions) - below Uncharted and barely above Sing 2. The source material of both were absolutely gigantic though - I'd say at least a couple steps ahead of Game of Thrones. For Harry Potter and lord of the Rings both the books and movies were insanely popular, for Game of Thrones the books were popular but the show as was far bigger. I though I was the only one totally confused.

The fact that it manages it in admissions too in some of those countries is insane - considering that in Germany according to insidekino the last time one of the first 16 weekend records was broken was in 2002 with Lord of the Rings 2. Before that it happened more frequently. It's not just Europe where its performing great - its more like its doing well to incredibly well everywhere but in China and Japan.