Taruseth

So probably something like 105-110k. Wouldn't be to bad - but comps for the weekend: T-0 Wednesday 6th July 2022 23:59+45min TFSS at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 132 1923 45245 4.25 +485 / +33.7% Comps: Spider-Man: FFH => 406k Once upon a Time in Hollywood => 476k (TROS => 238k) NOT USEFUL - just for fun: TLK => 644k TG:M => 760k (it had a better increase today than TGM did) JWD => 648k John Wick 3 => 567k So my final weekend prediction will be: 425k And I am going all out: Minion will take the weekend (in admissions) Thor 4 will have a hard time getting above Thor 3. And also for fun (or the opposite): Liebesdings: TFSS at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 48 28 12040 0.23 Comps: Five Feet Apart => 36k Menschheit => 33k Minions 2 => 32k (Elvis => 22k - all others below 20k, as low as TROS with 3.47k - so obviously useless). Either we have the rom com Friday blow up or we have a big failure at hand. Going to be optimistic and say 100k OWend.

You are going to be way closer than me though - my comp was too heavily based on Lübeck and that has summer holidays. If I'd had to say anything now I'd say right around JWD so 100k or slightly below. The CS Bremen pointing towards 65k should have told me that it will open way below what the CS Lübeck suggests. Will do a TFSS count this evening - and comparing it to some movies - hopefully giving some additional idea of where its heading.

5th July 2022 Tuesday 23:59 MEST T-1 W at CS Lübeck: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 4 206 921 27.47 +47 / +22.8% W at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 26 1363 8519 16.00 +253 / +22.8% TFSS at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 132 1438 45245 3.18 +340 / +31.1% Comps for the CS Lübeck OD only!!!!!: TGM => 130k JWD => 135k DSMOM => 125k For the 3: TGM => 151k JWD => 243k (But to be honest they only recently seemed to have gotten into their regular pattern again - for TGM the CS Bremen had almost the same presales as the CS Frankfurt, for Thor the later one has presales three times as large - or Bremen just loved TGM - though I have no idea why they would). And at those 3 (CS & CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt) for TFSS: TGM => 738k JWD => 690k I counted DSMOM at a wrong theater, so I can't use this and I currently can't differentiate what was sold at what theatre. Only got data for CS Bremen where DSMOM sold 430 tickets for OD while only selling a 170 tickets for Thor, which would mean an OD of around 65k. In other words: Numbers are all over the place - the CS Lübeck is really presale heavy, while the three others seem to be kinda erratic and the CS Bremen recently had presales pattern shift extremely. But at the CS Lübeck they all seem to suggest an OD of around 125k (it won't match TGM or JWD due to their better walk ups). Same goes for the weekend, the TGM comp lost almost 100k in the last 24 hours and will probably lose as heavily in the next 24 hours. Now, if we take a 120k OD and try to apply that to the weekend we might end up with something like this: 120k 80k 120k 170k 130k for a 500k opening weekend.

Poland has a larger OW than Germany... ouch. Germany: 452131 admits - 8th highest OW during Corona and 51.6% below the opening of Minions.

4th July 2022 Monday 23:59 MEST T-2 W at CS Lübeck: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 4 206 921 22,37 +48 / +30.4% W at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 26 1110 8519 13,03 +171 / +18.2% TFSS at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 132 1098 45245 2,43 +59 showings (one that had barely any shows up put 40 new ones up) +255 / +30.2% //+15013 new seats available Apparently I didn't track DSMOM on Monday evening - so only - the awful com TGM remains - don't want to go to 2019 movies. So for what it's worth: CS Lübeck - Opening DAY: TGM => 126k 3 ones - Opening DAY: TGM => 139k 3 one - OWend: TGM => 825k Seems like for now OD isn't dropping, meaning it will most likely be overall okay - 115k for now. OWend TGM is mostly useless - on Wednesday evening I can give better comps.

Hopefully, but that would be, really impressive. Do you take the OWend (Thursday trough Sunday) or the extended (Wednesday through Sunday) - 2.5m OWend (TFSS) would be second highest ever only behind HP1. Also 2.5m OWend would mean 10m overall would be Rouge One legs - 9m would mean worse legs and that with the slight advantage of having a Wednesday before the Opening Weekend. Furthermore this would make it the first year since 1998 (TITANIC) for the #1 movie to have at least double of the admissions of the #2 movies (in 1998 Armageddon) for Titanic Armageddon that factor was 3.39x and before that 1990 with Pretty Woman doing 2.009x the admissions of "Look Who's talking" What it should do at least?: Just look at Rouge One - coming in below that would be really, really bad. So please don't be disappointed if it gets no where close to that - I am also hoping for it to blow everything away and having the OWend record finally being broken would bee insane, but right now I don't believe that will happen - what has a 0% chance of happening is the 2nd Wend record being broken. Can imagine 3rd Wend though. Regarding €: Breaking that record will be somewhat easier but still really hard - taking an ATP of €13 it would need 1950k admission (that would put it barely above TFA) Getting 2nd place in that list is way easier, Avatar needs to do (ATP €13) just 1520k to get a gross barely above SW TLJ.

Love your tracking data Also I'd say your two comps approaching each other in the coming days should get to a similar point as mine do so something around 110k looks probable - hoping for it to come in higher obviously. The rest of the year will be kinda lame to track, won't it - outside of Black Panther (at least hopefully - I am not that certain that it can beat the first, it has to do that without Chadwick Boseman and Michael B. Jordan) - I think it really depends on how they spin the story and how they get the marketing - but November is quite cinema friendly and it can get the Christmas push to get it over the first, so you probably are right - Avatar 2 won't kill it because its December. Wasn't certain if the marvels actually counts as a sequel. Todays count will probably be easy and tomorrows will be annoying as the cinema will add a shit ton of showings for the weekend - it has 10 halls (the CSs have 11 and 12) - but it focuses these more on new releases - the CS Bremen often gives a new movie only 2 out of 11 halls (for bigger movies 3) while the CX gives 4 or 5. Also insanely shocking Thor gets 8 3D showings and just 2 2D showings on Saturday (and Sunday) - HOW THE BLOODY F**** can cinemas think that that's a good idea - also I think the 2 showings sold roughly as much as the 8. On OD the 2D 20:45 showing is at 217 / 353 while the 3D is at 137 / 624. I don't want to know how they will do it with Avatar - I can imagine no 2D showings during the opening week.

Also Thor will be the 15th MCU movie to do more than its direct predecessor - unless you count the not connected ones like Deadpool than that destroys it. What movie will break this - for now I'd say it will be Avengers 5 - doubt that can get 5.2m. Thor should do more than Ragnarok (1486k) BP 2 should do more than Black Panther (1798k - I fear that his will be close though or this has a non zero chance of breaking it) Ant-Man 3 should top 823k Guardians Vol 3 should do more than 2516k (though this is quite a high mark to top) Spider-Man - Across the Spider-Verse - the first did just 384k - not MCU - I think Madame Web - new one The Marvels - new one ??? ??? El muerto - new one Spider-Man - Beyond the Spider Verse - ??? Captain America 4 - needs to top 1735k

update: FB3 12th weekend was 8k and it was 2913k at that point. So it still looks like it will end around 2925-2950k. Regarding TGM: This were actuals at that point or for the 2nd Wend Monday estimates -(+2k/-3k) means the difference on that particular weekend or set of weekdays and the difference in cume at that point and the way to 3.1+m: Previews: 83k 1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k) 1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k) 2nd Wend: 408k (total 1166k) (+1/+1k) 2nd Wdays: 215k (total 1381k) (+15/+16k) (115k of those on Monday) 3rd Wend: 240k (total 1621k) (+15k/+31k) (good weather and JWD) 3rd Wdays: 111k (total 1732k) (+31k/+62k) (pentecost holidays in part of Germany) 4th Wend: 180k (total 1912k) (+20k/+82k) (Corpus Christi on Thursday) 4th Wdays: 69k (total 1981k) (-11k/+71k) 5th Wend: 155k (total 2136k)(+15k/+86k) 5th Wdays 74k (total 2210k) (-26k/+60k) 6th Wend: 130k (total 2340k) (+70k/+130k) 6th Wdays: 60k (total 2400k) (+20k/+150k) 7th Wend: 105k (total 2505k) (+60k/+210k) (Thor's actual opening weekend but weather looks good for cinemas) 7th Wdays: 50k (total 2555k) (+20k/+230k) 8th Wend: 80k (total 2630k) (+45k/+275k) 9th Wdays: 35k (total 2665k) (+20k/+295k) 10th Wend: 70k (total 2735k) (+45k / +335k) 10th Wdays: 30k (total 2765k) (+20k/+355k) 11th Wend: 55k (total 2820k) 11th Wdays: 25k (total 2840k) 12th Wend: 50k (total 2890k)(4th August-all states have summer holidays) 12th Wdays: 25k (total 2915k) 13th Wend: 40k (total 2955k) 13th Wdays: 15k (total 2970k) (summer holidays will end one by one after this) 14th Wend: 30k (total 3000k) "Goldene Leinwand"* 14th Wdays: 10k (total 3010k) 15th Wend: 25k (total 3035k 15th Wdays: 7.5k (total 3042.5k) 16th Wend: 20k (total 3062.5k) 16th Wdays: 5k (total 3067.7k) After this around 100k for a finish of 3150k-3200k In other words: Germany saves some of its face with these holds - but still underwhelming compared to most other markets - legs wise this would be between 5.14x-5.22x (OWend with Previews) and 5.94x-6.04x (OWend) Minions - this is a lot more shaky as weather can change it a lot - 40 °C everywhere could mean a 3rd Wend of 150k and then 20°C and rainy (but most light) could mean a 400k 4th Wend 1st Wend: 450k (total 450k) 1st Wdays: 150k (total 600k) 2nd Wend: 550k (total 1150k) 2nd Wdays: 175k (total 1325k) 3rd Wend: 300k (total 1625k) (really hot weather) overtakes TGM here 3rd Wdays: 125k (total 1750k) 4th Wend: 300k (total 2050k) 4th Wdays: 125k (total 2175k) 5th Wend: 200k (total 2375k) 5th Wdays: 100k (total 2475k) 6th Wend: 150k (total 2625k) (4th August) 6th Wdays: 75k (total 2700k) 7th Wend: 125k (total 2825k) 7th Wdays: 50k (total 2875k) 8th Wend: 125k (total 3000k) "Goldene Leinwand"* 8th Wdays: 40k (total 3040k) 9th Wend: 100k (total 3140k) 9th Wdays: 25k (total 3165k) 10th Wend: 90k (total 3255k) 10th Wdays: 20k (total 3275k) Adding another 475k after this would result in 3750k *in this prediction - if I didn't miscount - TGM and Minions 2 would cross the 3m mark on the same weekend (but TGM then is in its 14th week and Minion in its 8th week). But I think in the end Minions 2 will be slightly faster. (Minions could also absolutely explode next weekend - if weather gets a bit more cloudy with some drizzle - I won't bet against the Minions) 1st Wend: 450k (total 450k) 1st Wdays: 150k (total 600k) 2nd Wend: 750k (total 1350k) 2nd Wdays: 300k (total 1650k) 3rd Wend: 500k (total 2150k) 3rd Wdays: 200k (total 2350k) 4th Wend: 400k (total 2750k) 4th Wdays: 200k (total 2950k) 5th Wend: 300k (total 3250k) 5th Wdays: 175k (total 3425k) this could get the movie to a total of 5000k or more.) Predicting kids animation movies is something I simply can't. There drops can be a lot more frantic than those of other movies and summer is generally a hard time due to it being so incredibly weather dependent. In the end I'd expect Avatar to get there during its 2nd week - with an outside shot (5 % or so) to get there in week 1 (helped by its first week being 8 days, due to it being a Wednesday opener). Football WM could obviously dent this a bit. With how barren the rest of the year looks outside of December I think Avatar has the chance to get 100k in September - in a year with more movie releases in September and a big movie being released around the 3rd of October I'd expect it to get like 20k.

W at CS Lübeck: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 4 158 921 17,16 W at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 26 939 8519 11,02 TFSS at the 3: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 73 843 30323 2,78 Comps vor OD at CS Lübeck: JWD => 127k TGM => 106k Comps for the weekend at the 3: W/OD: JWD => 285k TGM => 119k TFSS/OWend: JWD => 658k TGM => 827k I think I pulled the wrong numbers for TGM - were the previews that presale heavy? Must have been. This really is just to have more numbers in the future. Didn't really have the time to do it before or to be honest the motivation: I'd say it looks okay overall - the OD will probably come in around 110k But the weekend will probably don't come in at 650k or more - I'd say it (adjusting done for being Marvel) might open with 500k.

They should - as you stated the weather will be important in that regard. I am thinking the same, in my somewhat optimistic post about the yearly top 3 I have it at 3.1m That all depends on how you count the legs - meaning what you count as Opening Weekend - only the true weekend (weekend + previews or weekend + Wednesday opening) - I tend to do only Thursday trough Sunday as that's what most movies get. Which puts movies like TFA at a slight disadvantage as they get midnight-reviews - so part of Thursday. Comparing legs between markets is in general complicated as Weekends are between 2 and 5 days - its way harder getting a big multi from a 5 day weekend than it is from a 2 day weekend. But, yes, the multi for TGM in Germany is relatively bad - despite it (if we take the 3.1m) ending with a 5.06x / 5.84 - the US will end around 5.8? 735m. Let's hop Avatar will do really well But honestly to save the cinemas Avatar would probably need to do a titanic like run but starting with TFAs opening weekend. Yeah, cinema going peaked in the early 2000s (2001 with 177.9m) and since then has been in a steady decline - the only years that really managed to bug the trend were 2009 (largest since 2004) and 2015 (largest since 2009) and both had one thing in common a bunch of big blockbusters (2009 had 3x 6m movies, 2015 had 4x) - 2012 also had 4x 6m movies and was the second largest year of the past decade. Before corona I already expected 2020 to come in below 100m - don't know when we will get back above that line. 2024? Thinking this year could be heading for 60-70m 2023 for 80-90 and 100m in 2024? I am probably being too optimistic. third trend: Minions: 460k JWD: 130k TGM: 122.5k Elvis: 60k Black Phone: 40k Menschheit: 30k

New trend: #1: Minions - 425k #2: TG2 - 130k (-16%, damn) #3: JWD - 125k (-37%) #4: Elvis - 65k (-19%) #5: BlackPhone - 42.5k (-11% incredible) #6 Menschheit - 30k (-33%) 425k would then be: 60 120k 120k 125k ??

10.75m 38m 35m 30m (=> 113.75m) 18m 13m 10m 9m (=> 163.75m) should be doable or really optimistic: 10.75m 38m 40m 36m (=>124.75m) 23m 16m 13m 11m (=>187.75m)

That bad yesterday - I don't think it will get a 175k Sunday, Sunday weather wise looks to be on par with Thursday, while yesterday was colder and rainier. If it does, it would be a good sign for the future though.

What? Where did that originate?

At least today looks really great and the evening shows are looking good too - even the 10-11 pm showings have a few tickets sold. 500k for certain would be good. Top Guns 8 pm showings look great too. Lightyear got slashed to 1 showing a day at the local cinema, same amount as Doctor Strange 2 and Fantastic Beast 3 and Sonic 2 and "Magische Welt der Tiere" (lol, that movie is in week 38) Menschheit (German movie) that opened on the same weekend with only a couple percent more admissions gets 3 showings. Top Gun 2 has 4 tomorrow Jurassic World has 4 too. And Minions gets 12! Could something like 60k 170k 140k 130k for 500k happen.

Top 3 of the past years: 2021: James Bond NTTD: 6037k Spider-Man NWH: 4541k Fast & Furious 9: 1968k 2020: Bad Boys for Life: 1820k Tenet: 1686k Nightlife: 1414k (German movie) 2019 Frozen II: 6782k The Lion King: 5653k Perfect Secret: 5321k (German movie) 2018: Bohemien Rhapsody: 3966k (helped by being played in 2020 in auto cinemas etc.) Fantastic Beasts 2: 3896k All about me: 3870k (German movie: Der Junge muss an die frische Luft) 2017: Fack Ju Göhte 3: 6108k SW TLJ: 5917k Despicable Me 3: 4653k 2016: Rouge One: 3994k Finding Dory: 3922k Pets: 3848k (Zoomania: 3845k) 2015: SW TFA: 9060k Fack Ju Göhte 2: 7734k Spectre: 7089k Minions: 6945k It's insane that Minions was only #4 in its year but in every year since then it would have gotten first place with that admission count. The problem is more the depth - 2018 and 2016 both had no movie above 4m admissions but they had 5 and 6 movies between 3m and 4m admissions with the difference between #3, #4 and #5 in 2016 being less than 10k.

Forgot to write "anymore". Most movies kinda underperform compared to elsewhere since 2020 outside of those few movies - in how many countries is bloody Fantastic Beasts 3 the most successful movie of the year? Minions should replace it in that position, but if the 425k turns out to be an overestimate and it opens with like 350k, that Minions has a big chance of ending below 3m, meaning FB3 has a chance to stay in that position until Avatar 2 - in the end it will probably TGM that prevents FB3 from staying in that position - for now I'd say 2900k total for that, but I had to constantly up the total - when I wrote down a path to 2500k I thought I over predicted -turns out the opposite is true. True, but the only real hits since 2020 have been James Bond and NWH. Adm.: Skyfall (2012 #2): 7826k Spectre (2015 #3): 7089k NTTD (2021 #1): 6037k Minions (2015 #4): 6946k Spider-Man (2002 #5): 5186k NWH (2021 #2): 4541k If Minion would drop like NTTD did it would get close to 6m admissions. Being a bit more optimistic: The year end chart could look something like this: Avatar 2: 7.5m (I think this has a solid chance to be gigantic)* Minions 2: 4.5m TGM: 3.1m FB3: 3.0m * I wouldn't be surprised if this opens around Avatars numbers (893k and has SW legs and ends with 3m-3.5m, but I also wouldn't be surprised if this opens close to TFA (2139k) but with JC legs for a total of 10-12m. In other words this could go anywhere - come back down to regular level or JC repeats his Titanic / Avatar magic again.

That would be okay - 25k below my final prediction. While today looks really good, I think today will be the strongest day this weekend. Could be - 450k should mean a total around 3m, but more won't be easy. There obviously is the chance for the movie to catch on really well and have incredible legs. The first movie increase on its second weekend, but to be fair, that had insane weather during its opening weekend. Germany doesn't really seem to turn out for anything that isn't James Bond (and No Way Home and in a way Harry Potter xD). Prior to this month I was pretty certain that Thor 4 would (like Thor 3 did behind Fack Ju Göhte 3) open in second place behind the Minions - now I am not so certain anymore. If Minion 2 increases like Minions did to lets say 500k - Thor 3 should still be able to get there: Thor 3 opened with 403k but it had Tuesday and Wednesday before that (2 holidays - the second one only in southern Germany though) with 265k admissions.

If my numbers are anything to go by - absolutely s*** - JWD is a lot more presales heavy than animation movies (aside from Frozen probably). JWD for my comp would suggest Minions to open to 119k. Actually JWD was more presales heavy than TLK in my sample.

Minions 2: Counted on 29th June 2022 at 23:15 TFSS at all three cinemas: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 144 401 59476 0,67 +199 tickets / +99 % (Performance was quite different across the cinemas, the two CS increase by more than 120% while the CX increased by less than 50 % - it has like 1/3 of its tickets sold in one block (in a show) on Thursday. TS4 => 246k Lightyear => 212k Menschheit => 476k Elvis => 337k (Five Feet Apart => 500k) Yeah, after yesterday I expected more like +300 - +400 tickets today so +150-+200 %. Its probably one if not the most walk up heavy franchise, but this isn't looking too good: So for now I'd say 450k OWend and a total of around 3m But if it can keep its walk ups strong because its a good movie it can open to 650k and finish with 5.0m

Minions 2: Counted on 28th June 2022 at 23:15 TFSS at all three cinemas: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 144 202 59476 0,34 +174 tickets / +621 % Comps: Lightyear => 270k Menschheit => 411k Elvis => 297k Honestly didn't think it could do something like this. Jump in the next 24 hours will obviously be way smaller, but those very limited comps look a lot better than they did yesterday and maybe Minions 2 and Germany will surprise us all and do what the first did.

Yes, it is, previous record holder was Avatar with 26 (dropped below 5m on Wednesday of it's fourth week, Jurassic World, The Force Awakens, Toy Story 3, Finding Dory and Incredibles 2 all dropped below 5m on Monday in their fourth weeks). (Regarding 10m: Record belongs to The Last Jedi and Rogue One each had 18 consecutive days above 10m. And then The Force Awakens, Avatar, No Way Home and the Incredibles 2 have 17 consecutive days above 10m. Interesting thing: the first 17 days of The Force Awakens weren't just above 10m, they also all were above 20m. Regarding TGM: This week will probably be around 4m each day, than the weekend, so that's 7 days: Next week: Monday and Tuesday are going to be above 5m each, Wednesday and Thursday should do it (despite Thor) and then the weekend, so in total 14 days. The Monday and Tuesday after that should work too (16 days), I'd worry above Wednesday and Thursday though - they could both go barely below 2.5m - if they don't the movies is at 21 days and then the next Monday should definitely be below it. At that time it would have 52 days above 2.5m, the same amount of days as Avatar and with that it would tie the record, I think.

My estimates for the Minions 2 changed so much - when it was announced I thought it would do well, but below the original one (with a similar opening weekend), then in 2019 Frozen 2 did a 1.4m opening weekend, so I thought Minions 2 might do 1.5-2.0m depending on the weather, than a couple month ago I thought at least the opening weekend should be above the first and now... Cinemaxx still has no shows up. TFSS at the two CS: Sellouts Shows Seats Sold Total Seats % Sold Total 102 28 48968 0,06 It gets seats like it’s going to open to numbers like The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II or Endgame – at one it gets the largest and one of the two second largest and at 2pm also the other and for the 5pm area it instead gets one of the two third largest – the CS Frankfurt instead (outside of Friday) gives it the largest, second largest, third largest and fourth largest for the whole day (including 10-11pm slot – only the fourth largest is free at that slot): At the CS Bremen Endgame had 12252 seats available this has 18248 available for the weekend – lol (Endgame did get some showings added throughout the weekend so probably ended closer to 16k seats). At both TLK had 58k (so 9k more – still can’t believe how many seats they opened up for this movie) for the weekend. And TROS had 53k (so 4k more). I assume Frozen II was somewhere around that too -> They expect this to perform absolutely insane. Adjusted comps: LY => 103k Ouch - even if this has way better walk ups, I'd bet on a sub 500k OWend and right now would probably see it around 300k. But we should still keep in mind, that Minions is probably the walk up heaviest franchise that exists and cinemas allocating it showings like they only do for million openers (and TLK) means there is no need to book a seat in advance. Also: This movie will fall and rise with the weather: Way sunnier and hotten than predicted (like 35 °C on Saturday and Sunday it it will open with 250k - less than 20 °C and some light rain and Friday, Saturday and Sunday each could easily be over 250k). It will most definitely replace Elvis as the movie with the biggest presales multi Let's see what the next two days bring.

Damn, I thought they'd put them online today - but maybe tomorrow - thought we might have our first 1m opener - yeah that looks unlikely too happen now. Not even cinemaxx? For Lightyear they already had shows up on the weekend. That's really weird.