Yea, you do.
Firstly, what I would recommend for thinking about getting an IM from that inception mega Thor data is:
Fri/Th relative — 1.85x
Sat/Fri relative — 1.69x
Sun/Sat relative — 1.51x
Thor was:
Fri/th 1.4x
sat/fri 1.04x
sun/sat 0.77x
For IM=1+1.4(1+1.04(1+.77))~=4.98x
adjusting by pure ps ratio -> 1+1.85*1.4(1+1.69*1.04(1+.77*1.51))=13.4x, as you say. But this corresponds to a 72% sat increase and a 16% sun increase, so clearly there is a lot more work to be done accounting for how much the ratios will converge by t-0 and then differences in PSm.
We do not have much historical data to reference in that regard as we’ve gotten into some pretty in the weeds variables that don’t tend to get explicitly noted down anywhere. I can only tell you that based on expertise/experience, that relative fri/th edge will probably narrow to ~1.6x, whereas the sat and sun nums just aren’t that significant at this point with Thor’s sales being so low and the relative edge in actuals will probably tighten to about 1.2x and 1.1x respectively, for ~1+1.6*1.4(1+1.2*1.04(1+.77*1.1))=8.4x. If the Sat advantage remains very chonky you could hit 9-10x, but it’s a big ask.
Another wrench here is the summer vs almost xmas difference in positioning.