Cooper Legion

Unfortunately IW is just below 1b os-c as the correct China value is 376m

FWIW I would guess ~20k for now t-5 to final growth: DS2 +56% L&T +89% BP2 +76.5% gotg3 +106% bats +108% atsv +172% (btw @Porthos won’t grow enough to hit the t-5 comp or anything, but I think this should be a fine add to the comp block for the final stretch) 100-115 seems realistic here depending on how things play out

Mostly what I meant by that was just that the comps were underindexing against other regions, regardless of the comp movie choice. Like certainly it looked better in Sacto vs Gotg than vs ds2 or L&T. But the gotg3 comp in Sacto has been low vs most other samples gotg3 comp, the L&T comp has been low vw other samples L&T comps, etc etc. So that’s a pretty genuine regional trend not just colored by paying more/less attention to right/wrong movies. Which is not, like, a problem per se. Different shape of sales all gets straightened out by the end. Mostly the few times I emphasized that was just as a warning for those reading the threads who are less in the weeds of this stuff that the overall picture was not as bad as they might think looking at Sacto straight comps at the time

If you want a tighter range just choose a different shade 🥱

Fwiw I agree that, particularly post L&T, ps patterns for MCU are a bit different — more hesitancy in quality, less frontloading (though still more than anything but like SW of course). It’s logical that if there’s a national dynamic to that effect it will be stronger in some markets/weaker in others. Getting a little into meaningless linguistic nitty-gritty but I would personally regard that more as an explanation of why Sacto was underindexing for so long vs the comp set than that not being the case

As has been said by all sorts of trackers already, excellent past two days. May be final trailer bump, may be start of very hot closing week if reception holds up T-5 Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $32.00 $33.00 $34.00 $35.00 $36.00 $37.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 4.93 $157.76 $162.69 $167.62 $172.55 $177.48 $182.41 $187.34 $192.27 $197.20 5 $160.00 $165.00 $170.00 $175.00 $180.00 $185.00 $190.00 $195.00 $200.00 5.07 $162.24 $167.31 $172.38 $177.45 $182.52 $187.59 $192.66 $197.73 $202.80 5.14 $164.48 $169.62 $174.76 $179.90 $185.04 $190.18 $195.32 $200.46 $205.60 5.21 $166.72 $171.93 $177.14 $182.35 $187.56 $192.77 $197.98 $203.19 $208.40 5.28 $168.96 $174.24 $179.52 $184.80 $190.08 $195.36 $200.64 $205.92 $211.20 5.35 $171.20 $176.55 $181.90 $187.25 $192.60 $197.95 $203.30 $208.65 $214.00 5.42 $173.44 $178.86 $184.28 $189.70 $195.12 $200.54 $205.96 $211.38 $216.80 5.49 $175.68 $181.17 $186.66 $192.15 $197.64 $203.13 $208.62 $214.11 $219.60

Doesn’t count in Sacto since have been expecting for months that dark magic would force it to rise sharply at the end to cover the underindexing gap 😛

650 for strange, dp should have higher atp so might be able to beat in gross even if not tix

Very likely. Should be in 600s

Waiting on Sacto for grid update but thinking over 35 for first time in run (midpoint has been 35.0 in the past so not like a huge change or anything, just bumping up a bit)

People do write fanfic. In large part because people like to read those sort of plots. Just like they like to see them on the big screen and are more willing to pay for that than most of what HW is putting out

Wick is right in line with the rest in terms of size:comp fit. Sacto starting to right size a little bit, though I don’t think the size adj comp will move past 30 until midweek (currently 28.5, basically same as t-14).

Maybe just a 33% drop for IO2 today… 330k-ish wknd? Probably settling down into 8.5-9 at this point

FWIW, CM was at 4494 T-8 before totaling 10553, so +135% growth or so. TROS was at 15099 before totaling 19541 — mere +30%. The adj CM comp provided suggest that DP3 is currently 7402 at same sources, which would suggest that it would be a bit higher for the TROS comp, maybe 7750ish giving ~24M adj comp. Final vs T-8 growth for: DS2 — +75% THOR — +114% BP2 — +100% GOTG3 — +144% accounting for stuff like seasonality, reception, reaction timing etc a *crude* guess might be for DPW to grow 120%ish for a finish ~ 18300 (17100 vs TROS, 16300 vs CM). If that were to come to pass final comps (atp adjusted for the 2019 but still take with a lot of uncertainty): CM 37.5 TROS 41 DS2 31 L&T 31 BP2 30.5 Bats 33.5

Got a good shot at USD record which is just absurd

Wknd 5 est 777.5, Portugal ~1.8, so 90M holdover wk. Actuals guess 92M (-34%). Keep dropping 33%ish, add 2x or 184M for 963+portugal rest+final markets. Easy billie maybe 1.025 when all said and done, though maybe Olympics hurt a bit

Not 100% guarantee, would be pretty likely. IM likely low 5s but could flex around to mid 5s or high 4s depending on various factors

Uhhh…. Not even close to close?

I wouldn’t say 0 chance in Japan, sometimes freak breakouts happen. But a freak breakout is exactly what would be needed and there are only a few of those per decade so ahh… definitely don’t hold your breath, lol. Probably passing 100M in Mexico unfortunately which will kill that bit of trivia. Locked to beat Barbie DOM (close), WW (not that close) and OS (not at all close).

40.7 would be 3.4 wk right? 44% drops for 45, 27% for 50, maybe like 46-48?

Last week was a freakishly strong Fri for unclear reasons, this is down 56% from two Fridays ago vs a local Friday opener. Looks to be recovering some on Saturday

Very boring run so far to be honest. Recent pace is decent enough given how long it’s been on sale but not really exciting, considering Thor reception and ATP diffs should be unlikely to dip below 30, on other hand high 30s seems tough to reach without really sizzling reception buzz for final few days. Might drag IM’s up slightly next update depending on how Fri paces vs Thor T-14 Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $30.00 $31.00 $32.00 $33.00 $34.00 $35.00 $36.00 $37.00 $38.00 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 4.825 $144.75 $149.58 $154.40 $159.23 $164.05 $168.88 $173.70 $178.53 $183.35 4.9 $147.00 $151.90 $156.80 $161.70 $166.60 $171.50 $176.40 $181.30 $186.20 4.975 $149.25 $154.23 $159.20 $164.18 $169.15 $174.13 $179.10 $184.08 $189.05 5.05 $151.50 $156.55 $161.60 $166.65 $171.70 $176.75 $181.80 $186.85 $191.90 5.125 $153.75 $158.88 $164.00 $169.13 $174.25 $179.38 $184.50 $189.63 $194.75 5.2 $156.00 $161.20 $166.40 $171.60 $176.80 $182.00 $187.20 $192.40 $197.60 5.275 $158.25 $163.53 $168.80 $174.08 $179.35 $184.63 $189.90 $195.18 $200.45 5.35 $160.50 $165.85 $171.20 $176.55 $181.90 $187.25 $192.60 $197.95 $203.30 5.425 $162.75 $168.18 $173.60 $179.03 $184.45 $189.88 $195.30 $200.73 $206.15

USD kind of meaningless once ER but lc can be meaningless because of inflation. Thank god for admits

Coming to earth a little bit at last, thinking ~500k wknd for 9-9.5 should be it