Cooper Legion

And if you follow what I said to do in my first sentence they all give worse than 60 😛 They’re older so they weren’t as previewheavy, less Th dragging down the denominator.

Look at the True FSS hold and apply it to 83%. Think the best comps are definitely CW, IM3, IM2 which all lead to over 60% drop. I would be pretty happy with 61% tbh

Marvels can’t really go there because it’s 2 weeks after gotg — but yeah, a Fast delay and a pull forward from July tidies stuff up a lot.

That changes my projected Sacto finish from 24.3k to 24.4k (like 44M, LOL!), so almost exactly as expected daily pace (though I haven’t adjusted for any review timing here, so maybe more coincidence than forecasting skill 😛 ).

I think it's fair to assume July 2023 will see more general shuffling.

If they haven't already contract locked Oppenheimer for multiple weeks, then safe to say they won't now. If they have, lol, that was dumb.

There's no way to give IMAX to a 30M 2nd weekend instead of a 160M opener. If Oppenheimer wants multiple weeks it will move.

Holy shit, Endgame made too much money

Yeah I also wondered if there was a connection. There is plenty of time for a Reed FF4 to hit July 24 if they have been heading that way behind the scenes.

Krasinski

Does Raimi like the Fantastic four 🤔

Don't love the period piece idea, and I hope Reed does a quick turnaround on a quantumania sequel. But if not, would be happy to get him here.

He signed on a long time ago, pretty simple to realize he wanted a break between them and now

Happy to circle around for dec 2022 vs dec 2015 but Thor (?), BP2 will also be added to the top 10 to balance out jw1 and tfa somewhat.

Was bored and curious, so… Previous 7 year gap had about 40% growth among top OWs The 7 year period before that had wild 100% growth! More active theater expansion back during the turn of the century iirc, and per capita attendance wasn’t falling so bad for the overall market:

Well, 2-4 have 50-55% growth and I settled on ~40%, so… I agree 😛

Only ranks 6 and 9 have small enough growth that 240 would correspond to above 180, and even then just barely. And observed rank growth should slightly underestimate real given recent unusually high inflation. 240M/1.4=171M, so like 165-170 final answer now that you guys have made me look into this further 😛

TBC I never use % of #1 when endgame is involved because it’s too much of an outlier — I would consider % of #2 or something (current #2 is 260, in April 2025 it was IM3 with 174M, so 67%… takes 240 to 160M 😂). I think it’s pretty fair to say that OW growth vs 7 years ago is on the order of 40-50%.

Went atp to 2019 (bit below tlj I think, right?) And ranks from 2019 to april 2015 (since I feel ows inflate faster than atp). There’s a cluster of TDK, TDKR, and DH2 around 160-170 in 3rd-5th place at the time. Another way to look it would be: 240M is ~ 7th place adjusted OW (looking Here and assuming 7%+ inflation since 2019 to take TLJ last 240) In April 2015, 7th place adjusted would be between SM1 and TDKR (after TA, TDK, SM3, DH2, DMC) with ~168-172 adjusted OWs But like the basic intuition is that you’re floating around the bottom of the top 10 in OW tickets sold — you could maybe get even better by trying to convert a 240 DS2 into a particular True FSS (200) and then adjusting that and comparing with historical true FSS evolution, but that’s more work so meh.

I’d give more than 50% that TG2 misses that range (going low) and DS2 misses that range (going high).

LMAO I mean it’s not like we expected this to release anyway. China had a good ride for Infinity saga, but government is too crazy now and we don’t really need the market so whatever.

240 nowadays would be similar to perhaps 160M when AoU came out? 180 generously. Not exactly S tier hype

Personally I am shocked and outraged that a movie in the mcu had to work in the mcu /s

205-235

Dumbles: 90ish Bluehog: 175ish North: too early to say really, I’d guess low 30s