Cooper Legion

I think my interest in box office might last longer than the box office does tbh

+- 1 morbilion

True IM should be ~2.6 (-6%, -30%) so to hit 40 needs a 34M true FSS-> ~13.1 true fri or 19.1 OD. That would be 31.4% preview % which is right about where I’ve got it clocked. Though real talk, if they fudged the previews up from like 5.8 (not saying they did, but… reported preview ests aren’t exact to the dollar or anything). then 31.4% would give an 18.5 OD (from a 12.7 true fri, but would look like 12.5).

It’s not too hard to ballpark the final gross based on the 6M previews (and we had the previews clocked pretty well like a week ago). We have a pretty good idea of whether a movie will be a mega success, huge flop, or somewhere in between before the first showings start.

Well, since I unfortunately wasted my time catching up on the last 5 pages, guess I should comment. The FB opening is awful but pretty unclear there’s any pandemic effect vs just franchise apathy. Sonic drop based on the Th seems likely to be disappointing but I think Good Friday will surprise high so I’m not gonna comment further until then. EEAAO is doing pretty great fwiw. Batman wasn’t like, huge huge huge, but totally respectable pre-pandemic blockbuster ticket sales. People will still show up for what feels worth showing up for — and if that bar is higher than it used to be, very difficult to disentangle a pandemic shock vs a mere continuation of a secular trend (attendance was declining all through the 00s, per capita attendance even worse, streaming industry pivot was pre-pandemic, etc). It doesn’t seem severe enough to kill exhibition this decade or anything, but probably should contract screens (and increase PLF %) in the long run. All the same stuff we’ve been talking about for years.

I know I compared it to moneyball earlier, but some interesting analogies to modern vs 00s Psephology also come to mind. Mainly, an informationally empowered consumer leading to more polarized results, and more powerful models reducing surprise. I do sort of understand the longing for earlier eras, but I’m usually happier to work with the powerful tools than be surprised.

OW? Locked under the DS2 2day 😬 I don't think this will actually happen but under OD is sorrrrrrta live if you squint.

Weak Th across the board, I think a larger than usual Good Fri boost is plausible.

Summer top 3 should average over 500M

That’s @Brainbug the Dinosaur’s music

Man, MTC1, MTC2, and harkins are weak… where the fuck would this get the gross for 6M? We just assume regal went nuts or something Won’t be surprised if it’s like, 5.4

Just comically bad

Huh, could have sworn I fixed Ambulance to 4.2. Oh well, hopefully it goes low this wknd

I like being able to make highly accurate predictions though 👀 Maybe it got moneyballed.

Well I only seriously started in early 2018, but O feel like 2018 and 2019 were spectacular and 2021/2022 have been interesting in a different way.

That's ridiculous. Imagine if next two US biggie ODs were 156M each

It could have china (I doubt it tbc, but the situation over there is weird and therefore not totally predictable), but that will probably just take it from like 1.05 to 1.3 if so.

The main thing this summer has going on which 2019 lacked is Dominion in June, but the tier 2 stuff definitely looks weaker.

Uhh…. No? It’s 1.01

I like that I have no idea who is first Edit: Nevermind, was thinking Disney marvel for some reason. Depending on how many Peter Parker’s you count you could bump Thor to 4th

In many ways 2nd weekends are the hardest. You don’t have any weekly drop or history of weekday:wknd behavior to work with like you do for wks 3+ but also don’t have strong ps data to go off like for openers. Truth be told I had it ~36 on mon from math I have since forgotten and I dinged it very slightly based on weekdays (not very bad but maybe a smidge worse than I would have guessed?). EEAAO seems like it will expand to ~2000 which is pretty substantial, but looking at comps it could be like 15% PTA drop or a 50% PTA drop (I.e. total crapshoot range). My guess from reception is it will do on the better side of that.

Trailer timing doesn’t matter at all. Thor 3 is 740M WW-C but perhaps 870M or something in a July 2022 environment (I still expect Russia to be down fwiw). 15-25% real growth is not a particularly ambitious ask given the intervening movies.

Legion Weekend Forecast Dumbledore 43M Sonic 34M EEAAO 7M Stu 6.4M Lost City 5.4M Ambulance 4.2M Morbius 3.9M Batman 3.9M Uncharted 1.45M

If it miss Billie it’s a disappointment, no marketing excuse 🚫

🙄