Cooper Legion

Don’t have a shift tonight, planning to finally do some serious fun with numbers BUT — as we near the bottom of the “U” here, it is abundantly clear that the extra showings/screen vs endgame is heavily affecting the Th and fri pace on that comp, the short ps run vs 50 day ps run is screwing with the pace vs TROS, and everything else we’ve got to work with is on a different order of magnitude. So I’m not really planning to read much into whatever results I get, just more get the legwork out of the way.

75-95-105-90 (365) x2.75=… 1.004B? I chose those dailies and multi before checking the product, pinky swear 😆

Btw, a while ago @charlie Jatinder was saying to almost treat as a Th opening movie. So here are highest Th ODs and their trueThFSS/trueTh: ROTS 141.5/33.1=4.275x (pretty close to TROS) Matrix Reloaded 125/33.2=3.76x Hangover 2 107.1/21.2=5.05 (lmao wtf) AotC 104/24=4.33x (again, close to ROTS and TROS, huh) Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 120.7/20.5=5.89x TPM was Wed OD, but has (true OD+FSS)/true OD of 78.3/21=3.73x — burned off more demand with Day 2 so this makes sense. It’s slim pickings, frankly. I think ROTS/AOTC nums should be about a floor, but it’s the same floor as TROS, so…

And yes, this makes me out of my own club… for now

230, yeah. Decided I’ve gotta be the voice for conservatism

Endgame FSS was 4.95 Th. Right now I’ve got NWH at 3.8ish, or about 23% down. Even TROS did 3.44x — I really don’t see how you could go below that combo of crazed Th fanbase+weak reception.

Can’t even find the proper gif to express how deranged this is

Twitter doesn't count, they can't add 2+2

I think we can grow a little more than that, but I would also say that the extra showtime will be skewing th/Fri early PS more than Th/Fr final PS and that will be more skewed than Th/Fri gross.

Literally nobody ever thought this...

0.8 now or expecting 0.8 sat before release (7 days from now)

But can one genre? 👀

Yeah I had an arithmetic error with the Sun, oopsie 😅 The Sat was a bit weak though, should have been able to hit low 13s even with corrected math

Crash for spidey starts at midnight, presales should be 3AM or so I guess.

To respond to the content of the post, it could well fall short of the 2016 one and the biggest 2021 us film will be 600M+

Well, that's definitely the first sentence. The sentence seems to suggest "and therefore the competition will be less of a problem" and I'm just not sure how that is supposed to work. NYC will also be slammed by NWH M4 Sing2 Kings Man Underdog Jordan.

I don't understand the thesis here. It's not like the competition will be skipping the big urban centers.

I think the key with that quote is, he's suggesting they were thinking about those questions while making it. So, if it was on their mind in the middle of production, they probably didn't decide to answer it with "nah, we'll choose the finished product where he doesn't have a character arc -- that will really subvert expectations"

WSS’s release date is so unfortunate. NWH mid weekend alone would be okay but then 5 wide openers —including a few moderately big ones — in the first weekend its past contracts. Yeesh.

IW pt 1&2 was a placeholder they gave in 2014 to movies coming out 4-5 later. This is being announced 10 months before. I’m pretty sure it’s the final title.

Think this is just a you thing, probably not much more to be said 🤷‍♂️

If you had about two hours worth of story about the universe finding a new hope, about 4 hours of story about the empire striking back, and about 2 hours of story about the Jedi returning, it wouldn’t be that out there to make: Star Wars: A New Hope Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back Part One Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back Part two Star Wars: Return of the Jedi Could you give one of those middle movies a different subtitle altogether, sure. But I don’t really see why one is much better than the other.

This is my NWH username. Now I can skip 100s of comments this month about being a product driven marketplace

I think we can do 250-350. Maybe a little optimistic losing Xmas, but several factors are here for nice sequel growth.