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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    It’s safe to say imo that this will romp past endgame final shows thanks to the extra 3 hours and shorter runtime (though runtime May end up cancelling with covid slowdown in auditorium turnover — most locations seem to be running NWH on a 3:30 gap iirc and I forget what it was for endgame but I don’t think a full 4 hrs?). I think matinees and inflation roughly cancel on atp, so if it does like 50M that will be from like +17% shows but -28.5% occupancy.
  2. Cooper Legion
    It loses like 15-20M on Fri from calendar stuff but then gains like 5-15M on Sat and 5-10M on Sun, a mild net positive imo though I intend to do a more quantitative deep dive on this in a bit.
  3. Cooper Legion
    Loial 😬 Only 3 eps left, can't see how they possibly conclude things at a reasonable pace.
  4. Cooper Legion
    Looks close I guess. Bit unfair with the calendar of course.
  5. Cooper Legion
    Would not be surprising for M4 to do less than a quarter of NWH that weekend and I’m sure theaters are booking with that in mind. Just a horrible date for a hybrid streaming 2000s nostalgia action play.
  6. Cooper Legion
    Yeah currently got it sketched out as 24 48 48 for 120, so just O/U. (This is off a 264ish wknd)
  7. Cooper Legion
    185 will be an absolute fiasco cap. I will become “theaters are dead” Legion for all of 2022.
  8. Cooper Legion
    As long as it beat JW to make top 6 perfectly balanced, I’m happy. Otherwise, FLOP
  9. Cooper Legion
    Just give them to me and I'll keep them safe from Jat 😏
  10. Cooper Legion
    Silly Sony, should have gone with noon
  11. Cooper Legion
    Endgame had pretty nutty first3 days iirc. Day4 might fall off a cliff relatively speaking, like+14k mtc2 previews or something. If it actually hits 22k then we are going comfortably past 50M in my view as well. There is a line of thought that if endgame basically did max capacity Th anyway -- the real Th demand could have been like 90M+ worth. Then if NWH has 25% lower Th demand on admits it could actually... Beat Endgame previews... by also effectivity maxing out Th (with less unmet demand because hype is less) but with 3 extra hours and a smidge of inflation.
  12. Cooper Legion
    Oh, and here's with a 5.5 IM: TFA 3.9x RO 3.45x TLJ 2.88x TROS 3x 5.5 IM and then tros true fss multi for 3x overall legs is not a huge ask imo.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Some legs thoughts using true fss: TFA 4.55x (using 54m prev est) RO 4x TLJ 3.3x TROS 3.45x Assuming a 5 IM for NWH, these are the overall legs that those true fss legs translate too: TFA 3.84x RO 3.4x TLJ 2.84x TROS 2.96x Personally I think it will need bad reception to reach those tlj nums, and I do not expect bad reception. But just in case, a true disaster scenario could be like 3x true fss legs (this is adding 2x instead of TLJ 2.3x, so about 13% worse) for 2.6x overall legs. That would still take 250 to 650.
  14. Cooper Legion
    If you wanna continue this convo, take it to the NWH thread. And true FSS legs are better anyway
  15. Cooper Legion
    What in the ever loving what
  16. Cooper Legion
    More like 600-800
  17. Cooper Legion
    Starting to feel a little nervous about getting too noticed
  18. Cooper Legion
    Nah. Gunn squashes false rumors, so he wouldn’t have commented on this because they are in it.
  19. Cooper Legion
    Wait, it makes sense with the difference in total seats sold. I think the seats sold today got an extra leading 1 as a typo? the ratio of total seats sold doesn’t make sense with growth in final comps, so I have no idea what’s going on and will just wait 😆
  20. Cooper Legion
    Why is the Endgame adjustment so dramatic today vs day 2?
  21. Cooper Legion
    Friday accelerating by like 25% vs day 2 Also it's above Th pace already -- clear sign Th is hurt by lack of shows imo.
  22. Cooper Legion
    Half of Endgame? Flopping in Spain, sad.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Courtesy @charlie Jatinder:
  24. Cooper Legion
    Just like Eternals
  25. Cooper Legion
    Netflix should release don’t look up in theaters for that sweet sweet 300M DOM
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