Cooper Legion

It’s a little optimistic. I think Jat would tell you more like 45.5M — but it’s starting to stabilize this weekend and I personally think late legs will be pretty decent

DS finally passes 2M admits ~right now

So current top pandemic releases (30M+): GvK 94M Tenet 58.5M Croods 58M WW84 46.5M Raya 45M T&J 45M DS 41M MK 39M Looking like they’ll settle something like: Gvk 100M Raya 59M Croods 59M Tenet 58.5M DS 47.5M T&J 47M WW84 46.5M MK 43M However, because of the odd coincidence of clustering near 58 and 47, the order of a lot of these finishes is still uncertain after many have been playing for months and months now — Raya/Croods/Tenet and DS/T&J/WW84.

Now this I will agree with. I don’t think blockbusters are dead, but anything that doesn’t feel like it really needs a big screen is going to struggle. Notably though, we were talking about that very trend *before* covid. Couldn’t agree more. Once BW hopped out of May, it just didn’t have enough variety and oomph of remaining product to serve as a real test of the market. The Peter Rabbit to BW corridor will be real make or break to see how recovery we truly are by then.

I assume I am a “usual suspect” in this context, but I actually agree with the first paragraph. Weather is getting good, once people feel like it’s party time they might tend more towards actively social events.

This isn’t a covid issue so much as a product issue.

Let’s compromise and just call the entire weekend a disappointment Only God Statham can save us now

Recovery CRUMBLING

You can’t just wish a movie into doing more than it would have in normalcy, and for all we know AQP2 in normalcy could have debuted at low 30s or something. We’re past the point when a weak debut necessarily tells us where the market ceiling is — now sometimes a weak debut will just be a movie having a weak debut for normal reasons, below the market ceiling.

Couple more days of this and imma rev up AQP2+Cruella OWs under MK+DS OWs

Yeah, the last time Funimation had a movie with appreciable 3rd week dailies to report was... never? So I understand why it wouldn’t exactly be an institutional strength for them.

Yeah the official reporting has been sketchy, I happened to see that article with the 40M announcement on Reddit and then it was also posted on WoKJ a little later.

Have to issue a correction here, I was reading mid run TF5 numbers off by one day. TF5 had a shorter run, much better pace, if F9 falls behind (which I do still expect) won’t be until final day or two.

This one is kind of tight, probably gonna miss

Just looked this up — great comp! I think F9 will fall behind tomorrow and also see it targeting around ¥870 at this rate. Can probably do better than 7.5 though 🤣

Yeah I also noticed the DS cume error. Funimation reported $40,004,952 Tues cume after 39,317,269 weekend cume, so M+Tu 688k or so. Guessing 40.55ish for Th cume. The drop % for it also corresponds to the 3,05 est instead of the 2.745 actual, so I’m guessing real prediction would be more like 1.35 wknd for 41.9 cume. I see WoM around 4.2

112 days my friend

If I had to pick just one, F8 for sure. But there’s also important differences to the PS behavior in terms of absolute size, and F9 seem to be hewing slightly closer to H&S there. To wit: T-13 F8/H&S geomean real/geomean T-12 ¥1.87 ¥4.12 45.44% T-11 ¥4.31 ¥5.20 82.93% T-10 ¥6.69 ¥6.55 102.10% T-9 ¥9.19 ¥9.52 96.55% T-8 ¥11.59 ¥12.09 95.85% T-7 ¥14.22 ¥15.06 94.40% T-6 ¥17.50 ¥19.42 90.13% T-5 ¥20.34 ¥23.00 88.40% T-4 ¥23.85 ¥27.42 87.00% T-3 ¥30.14 ¥35.26 85.49% T-2 ¥39.17 ¥46.29 84.62% T-1 ¥51.19 ¥60.20 85.03% Final ¥87.35 ¥100.75 86.70% Days beyond T-7 just my projection of course

It’s obvious they aren’t bad. It’s not obvious they’re good. As I said, Disney still only has one movie’s worth of data on the hybrid PA model — a kid’s movie during a period where the pandemic was still highly impactful. The upcoming movies using that model are doing so to collect further data and in hopes that it will work out, not based on clear presently available evidence (to Disney — obviously we have even less data by a less) that it *will* work out.

Nothing is obvious at this point, even to Disney itself, seeing as they have only one hybrid release of data to work off so far.

By the time July 30 rolls around this is going to look pretty unnecessary, but this felt halfway like a D+ original to begin with. Maybe subscriber goodwill will make up for the diminished direct revenue, though I remain skeptical — the $30 price tag kills a lot of goodwill on these relative to the WB day and date model. The weirdest thing about this is a 4th movie and still no experimentation with a “PA after 1-5 weeks” kind of model.

Feel pretty good about hitting this range

This hasn’t had a good day of sales yet. Aiming for more like 85 final PS at this rate (though final days crucial, uncertainty, etc).

Oh man, this looks weird now. I guess I’ll probably get used to it eventually

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