Cooper Legion

Current top single market grosses in USD are: TFA 936M WW2 ~865M Avatar 760M Black Panther 700M IW 678M right? Could be shaken up a fair bit by the end of the year.

Hmm, yeah, both look headed to ~110 in my book. Not sure which way I’d bet at this point.

Over 50M USD with ER at the time, right? I guess BP2 really has its work cut out for it

In US it’s Black Panther with 40.15M, RMB 271M needed to pass, looks very possible. Not sure if any Chinese Monday’s are higher, guess not.

About halfway through the PS run now, right? When are you thinking makes sense to start looking at other comps again?

Since I had some time to kill, some analysis of actual predictions vs “always 320”. Actual predictions: MoS— off by 34, squared error 1156 BvS — off by 50M, squared error 2500 SS — off by 50M, squared error 2500 WW — off by 188M, squared error 35344 Jl — off by 101M, squared error 10201 AQM — off by ~160M, squared error 25600 mean squared error of ~12880, RMSE 113.5 “Always 320”: MoS — off by 29, squared error 841 BvS — off by 10, squared erro 100 SS — off by 5, squared error 25 WW — off by 93, squared error 8649 JL — off by 91, squared error 8281 AQM — off by ~15, squared error ~225 mean squared error of ~ 3030, RMSE ~ 55 So the difference is really quite immense. The natural conclusion is that Shazam will gross $320M

4 more weeks buddy

Only two more shots for something to do decent before Captain Marvel. Upside aside this has been a remarkable drought.

Lag induced double post

Mermaid about to be the only entry not from 2017 or after. Kind of feels like mega-movies are growing faster than the market as a whole, but I’m not sure exactly what stats would be best to look at for validating that. Also could you provide the 6-days for DC2 and WW2? Trying to see where TWE will place in terms of single territory 6-day gross after Sunday.

To have a single day with numbers in that ballpark is insane though. And only going to get bigger.

Can it beat IW’s OW in USD?

Spiderverse will have a full week ~6.1M, be at 177 on Feb 7. Next week ~4.5M, goes to 181-182 on Feb 14. Then about flat on President’s Day week to be 185, 186ish on Feb 21. Should add about twice the President’s Day week for a total of 193-197. Ralph will have a week slightly above 1M to go to 197.3. Then about 198 on Feb 14 and 198.5 on Feb 21. Adding 2x President’s Day week would suggest a “natural” run of 199.5-199.8ish, very confident Disney will push it over.

Well, she didn’t get the Endgame appearance I was expecting, but she did get her own spot that I wasn’t expecting. Think this might end up a lowball.

Tomorrow estimate 110 new seats

Will there be any nonlinear financial bonus for Disney if Ralph gets to 200M? @Barnack, I feel like you seem to know a lot about this sort of thing?

There are some interesting records in play here, actually. If the weekend winner comes in below the 9.3M second weekend of The Possession, it will be the lowest weekend winner in the past 10 years. And I believe the lowest weekend winner adjusted since May 6-8 of... 1994!

Just noticed that Civil War is now a below average grossing Phase 3 film domestically. That is whack. Decent chance it ends up as a below Average grossing Phase 3 film WW, which would be extra whack.

I don’t think there’s practically any direct analysis value in day -37 of the first super long Marvel PS run, but it’s still become a soothing part of my daily routine.

Well don’t leave us in suspense Jimbo, which 2!?

Me too.

Come now, no one will really have such silly expectations. It’s only if it falls below The Avengers DOM that I’ll be disappointed

Don’t know if I really buy the pent up demand theory in the first place. But to whatever degree it’s real, Captain Marvel should be the main beneficiary.

That’s what happens when there’s nothing worth talking about on topic Unless you want to do a deep dive on whether Ralph will hit 200M or something.

Err, what? Are we talking DOM total here? ASIB and BR can make a run, but no way for Spidey.