Cooper Legion

Yeah, it comes out right before the Vision and Scarlet Witch TV show, the Falcon and Winter Solider TV show, the Rocket Raccoon and Groot TV show (rumored), the Lady Sif TV show (rumored), the War Machine TV show (rumored), the Nebula and Gamora TV show (rumored), the Nick Fury TV show (rumored), and the Hawkeye TV show (rumored). Also the animated TV shows for marvel characters MODOK, Hit-Monkey, Howard the Duck, and Tigra and Dazzler. Welcome to cultural dominance.

Even when Pixar makes a superhero movie they lose to Marvel

Pretty good. Now estimated for over 4.9x the OD, despite the previews. Don’t want to go crazy until we see 2nd wknd, but feeling good about it.

Alita audience RT still very strong (93% and 4.6/5) at almost 7k reviews. Thought I’d take a look at medium-big movies (DOM 80+) with very high audience score (4.3+) in the past several years. Pretty low membership club, and a lot of quite good legs (except Civil War, LOL). Think I’ll be pretty optimistic here and forecast 110-125 for Alita, which is amusingly is where all the other biggest 2019 movies so far seem headed (Glass, Upside, and Lego).

<800M

10M more would be 2.27x the 4-day, Split only added 1.56x

The current data from Sacramento tells a story pretty consistent with a high teens to low 20s preview figure, which could lead to a 160M OW with a very reasonable internal multiplier. However, there are still a lot of known unknowns at this point: Sacramento is only one market that could be unusually pro or anti CM relative to the nation Presales could go much better or worse than average over the next 3 weeks The Thursday presale:Thursday gross ratio could be unusually high or low The multiplier off of previews could be unusually high or low Porthos’s updates paint a broadly positive figure at the moment, but they aren’t a high precision tool 20 days out.

600M OW is a go

Alita looks healthy. Not huge for the OW, but the Cameronites are hoping for big legs anyway. CM PS should start up next weekend, right?

Sizzling comment.

Looking a bit at the weeklies: Upside came in at 10M (spectacular -15%) for a 88.6 cume. Will breeze past 100M and settle 115-130 imo. Simply a phenomenal multiple, I didn’t see this coming at all and it’s the most impressive performance of the year so far. Glass with 8.5M is down 33% for a cume of 100M. I see this headed toward 115-120. Spiderverse at 4M, -33% for a 181M cume. Headed for low 190. Ralph breaks the internet had 450k, -51% for a 197.7 cume — but Disney is tripling its theaters this weekend. The push for 200 has begun, and I think it will be there by March 10.

Still a monstrous performance, but I think there’s a decent chance we get a US movie this year with higher single market gross.

USD absolutely out of the question, lc I really doubt it but at least want to see the Sat bump before saying “locked.”

A 7.5M true Thurs would be 25% over the 6M Thurs deadline currently has. Could get pretty close to a 50M 5-day if the GA reception is as good as the audience RT suggests right now (on par with Spiderverse, though the sample size of ~4K is still a tad small for me).

Forgot about US

I’ve seen at least 4 people repeatedly predict 200M in the CM thread, though I don’t know how many are being serious.

Hmm. Sat total might be closer to 4B than Sun total if things keep rolling nicely.

The linked Google sheet has several sheets. The leftmost is Infinity War, the 5th is TWE, and the 6th is where he’s keeping track of hourly data. Speaking of, he’s now projecting 230 for the day.

So to lay that out explicitly you’re thinking maybe: Wed 207 Thu 345 (+66%) Fri 248 (+20% from Wed) Then if weekend follows Fake’s trajectory it would be Sat 304 Sun 236 (cume ~3.95)

Ah, gotcha. But if I’m reading the chart correctly, the last actual observation or BatB is 4.1M from 7 days out? Leaving aside the last week behavior, increasing 20% over the next 2 and change weeks would match that, which seems pretty healthy.

Only needs to add 20% in the next 2 and a half week for the customary last week doubling to bring it in line with or above GOtG2/BatB.

Luckily not in this market, or it would be smashed by TWE

Indeed. Still, your numbers seem in line with 130-180ish to me, for now. Adjust as more days roll in, as always.

47.36% of IW’s previews would be 18.5M previews. That’s a very plausible figure, though I think it will have a better Thursday presale multiplier. 18.5M previews would require an 8.65 internal multiplier to hit 160M, which is right in line with GotG2. On the one hand movies in generally and especially MCU probably get more Thursday loaded weekends over time, but on the other hand GotG2 was only 2 years ago and it was a sequel unlike CM. In other words: Porthos’s current data is super compatible with BOP’s 160M prediction Porthos’s current data doesn’t suggest any number all that precisely, since we don’t know how PS will move in the last 7 days, how walkup friendly it will be, how representative Sacramento will be, etc.

Yeah, I was just counting US+Canada as a “single territory” and including ticketing fees because that’s how the numbers are reported, but I think it’s also interesting to compare with either or both choices toggled the other way. Wandering Earth between Avatar and TFA I think, and I agree Endgame has a good chance to bump Panther with 700+. It’s not entirely out of the question for TLK or IX to make it, but I’m pretty skeptical. And there could always be an unexpected movie later in the year in China that goes past 700M USD — it’s not likely, but WW2 was an unexpected summer monster so you never know for sure.