Cooper Legion

Only with a China breakout. Weirder things have happened, but the odds are very bad.

Probably going to miss top 20 WW and top 10 DOM, especially if Fallout and Ant-Man pass it.

But can it hit .6JLs? Looks like it will get real close but not quite to me.

Except that there have been plenty of serious dramas and great successful films that weren’t SFX driven action in the past few years. It’s not like Marvel existing drives those films out of existence.

Why so pessimistic?

It’s not just about having weak 2nd films: Iron Man: 1>>3 Cap: 3>1 Thor: 3>>1 Avengers: 3>1 MCU just has a history of great threequels so far (with a pretty small sample size, so it’s not like this is a hard and fast rule or anything).

200 opening+ great legs definitely still signifies an event to me, but if GotG3 or JW3 or SW9 had a run of like 205/490 that wouldn’t really feel like one. I’d like to at least see the DOM top 10 cracked for event status, which now requires about 535. So far nothing with a 200+ opening has missed that, but looking at adjusted numbers Age of Ultron and Spider-Man 3 had a run like that. The crazy thing is that a run of say 210/610 for SW IX next year could conceivably miss top 10. Those are the sort of numbers that would be absolutely monstrous in 2012 but are becoming a bit more commonplace 7 years later.

In 10 years? Surely you’ll need 300+ for event status. Low 200s is not necessarily “event” status already, in my opinion.

“Those movies don’t really have good legs. It only looks like they have good legs because they make a higher proportion of their money after opening weekend.”

AM&TW is very clearly on track to be between Solo and JL at the moment. If it falters the next few weeks it might be more like 210. Crunching just about any reasonable numbers you please will give that conclusion.

That would be a funny outcome, but the MCU has a much better track record with third films than second ones so far in defiance of the general trend. Iron Man:3>2 Cap: 3<2, but still great Thor: 3>>>2 Avengers: 3>>>2

They already look like fools, and it’s been over 10 days. If they release a statement now to the effect of “we’re trying to formulate a clear policy for firings over social media statement, and in the process may re-examine some recent examples” and then rehire in a month that would hardly cause whiplash (not a prediction, just a possibility).

Huh, even got Bradley and Vin. That’s a stronger statement than I was expecting. I imagine a lot now comes down to how Feige and even more importantly Iger feel about the situation.

Pretty great interview. Jumped in at your time stamp and ended up watching it to the end. I’m quite the AI junkie, so I’d definitely say that Alita and Terminator are the Jim projects that interest me the most at the moment.

Sounds great. And with the size of the MCU more than doubling in the same period (20->40+) the future of cinematic offerings is looking truly bright.

Fun movie. Little overhyped, but probably still my favorite of the franchise.

Medium weekend for MI6, but I do think it will have nice legs. Possible that it, AM&TW, and Solo all end up in the same 10M range.

Guess we’ll have to settle for 69,999,970 without your support. Oh well, at least it’s a nicer number.

Wow, really shocking that Fallout couldn’t pull an A+ after the great reviews. This probably indicates bad legs incoming.

Especially I2. Couldn’t even make DOM top 7, what a joke.

It’s all subjective to the size of the movie though. 60M for MI would be fine, but not great. 76 for AM&tW was fine, not great. 180 for I2 was spectacular, 180 for IW would have been awful. I see a lot of medium performances get responded to with “are people really acting like $X is a bad opening?” with the implication that X is a big number/ a lot of money/should be considered great, when the absolute dollar value of the opening tells you almost nothing in a vacuum about whether it should be mourned or celebrated.

Condolences

Ahh, but you see Jimbo, there aren’t *more* capefilms now. There might even be *less* — Marvel Studios probably can’t release as many movies a year as Marvel+Fox Marvel has been. It’s just that there are fewer universes now and a more consistent quality.

It’s manifestly obvious that there is some fungability between jobs and enjoyable movies as far as net impact on the world. Trading 1 job for a movie that billions enjoy is an absolutely spectacular deal for instance, obviously worth it overall. Trading millions of jobs for a movie that millions enjoy is obviously a bad deal, since jobs are indeed much more valuable than watching a fun movie on a 1:1 basis. How does 5,000 jobs:5,000,000,000 movie enjoyment experiences measure up? Well, I don’t know for sure, but it’s certainly not as obvious as you two seem to be making it out. What is clear is that a merger which loses X jobs and gives a bunch more characters to the MCU>>>>> a merger that loses about as many jobs without that benefit. Now maybe you’d rather live in a utopia where nobody ever lost jobs to mergers, but that isn’t really on the table.