Joyous Legion
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Everything posted by Joyous Legion
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Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂
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The numbers shows 106 for calendar gross (including 24 holdovers, releases,etc). Mojo agrees. For in year releases mojo showing 100 exactly and don’t see anything else that could get in without significant rerelease
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Soul had very good reception and legs internationally in its original release despite the ease of piracy from the release model. I do feel good about hitting 300+ dom still in a world where COVID never happened.
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An excellent point. TLJ did 2.1x OWeek whereas TCP will miss so much as 1.45x — Jedi redeemed by facts and logic
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Thinking Godzilla will finish between Hero and Life is Beautiful @Brainbug
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Wonder if ABY can be #2 next wknd 🤔
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Smh kids these days don’t even know their 40 year old political ad references I think lemon was just talking about me though 😛
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It’s morning in America, bodes well for Nov 😎
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I mean we’ve still just got one day or hard data but that looks about right
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Looking at any Sats here @keysersoze123? Or all eyes on Xmas at this point?
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One claim I’m relatively confident making already is that the midpoint will be closer than either of our doms. Another W for wisdom of the crowd aggregation 😛
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I’m inclined to agree for now but I did put the dividing value right there for reference 😛 I def was worse on prev and OW so if dom does work out it’ll be thanks to IM and legs
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Legion Day 1 M37 Day 1 Halfway Th 3.674234614 4.472135955 4.053600464 IM 5.477225575 6.123724357 5.791460926 OW 20.1246118 27.38612788 23.4762687 Legs 4.472135955 5.215361924 4.829472806 DOM 90 142.8285686 113.3780013 👍
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And when everything’s a counter-program… nothing will be
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I said 3-4.5*5-6*4-5, jury is still out Those geomean to 90 which I still think may be within 15% or so which would be pretty good for a day 1 forecast 😛
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This calendar didn’t put that much of a squeeze on things today I would wait until wed to see how holdovers were able to hold up
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Hi Alive, I’m Legion
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I set satsun at 1.21x true Fri, we will see soon enough whether that’s too low… or too high
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Fwiw I’m guessing B still. Keyser says Fri is looking good, so maybe — 4.5-9.5-8-3.5-8.5 //25.5, 34 // 100
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Don’t worry, theaters aren’t dead again
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Like B- or worse? -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
There’s a chance it could be under 15! I don’t think that will happen, we’d have to crash to like, 3.2*4.7 or something? But it’s not totally off the table if reception is horrible. Anemic previews + a calendar configuration with weak Sat and dead Sun is quite a cocktail. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Yeah that is pretty much still my thinking. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
And a quick check in from me on AQM Sacto after porthole noted it as an overperformingnmarket: Size Adjusted: 4.7M Geomean: 4.25M Down from: Size adjusted: 5.3M Geomean: 4.85M Suggests a likely finish of ~3.5M from Sacto as well imo (split the difference and about 4.5M now, down .6 in 3 updates with 5 to go (obviously change in comps isn’t linear with number of updates but often these perform surprisingly close to that)). -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I just saw 79k on a spreadsheet but double checking that was a projection rather than actual, good catch. But looking at BB’s pace on T-1 I do agree with hst spreadsheet entry that it very ended up 70k+. Still more likely then not in my mind, on balance, that AQM will be a hair below at mtc1 final bell but by maybe like 2% instead of 10%. Narrowing from 3-4.5 from a few weeks ago to like 3.2-3.8
