Joyous Legion

Below 30 isn’t particularly plausible either, that’s why I said to focus on medium green and it’s just wide for being so far away. That said I think 40 is easier to achieve than a high IM like 5.75, pretty comfortable on the range there too. ~+5% Sat and -20 Sun is a true IM ~2.9. Previews this early in summer are almost a th opening, so Fri soemthing like +35-55% from Th is IM ~4.9-5.5. If we get some strong Fri sales when we’re close maybe I’ll drag it up to 5.6 or something but it will be really really tough to beat that. Yeah. Better reception (in avg case, just by regression to the mean) but bigger previews/more fanrush element, ~cancelling

Alright, fine then T-65 Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $28.00 $29.50 $31.00 $32.50 $34.00 $35.50 $37.00 $38.50 $40.00 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 4.875 $136.50 $143.81 $151.13 $158.44 $165.75 $173.06 $180.38 $187.69 $195.00 4.95 $138.60 $146.03 $153.45 $160.88 $168.30 $175.73 $183.15 $190.58 $198.00 5.025 $140.70 $148.24 $155.78 $163.31 $170.85 $178.39 $185.93 $193.46 $201.00 5.1 $142.80 $150.45 $158.10 $165.75 $173.40 $181.05 $188.70 $196.35 $204.00 5.175 $144.90 $152.66 $160.43 $168.19 $175.95 $183.71 $191.48 $199.24 $207.00 5.25 $147.00 $154.88 $162.75 $170.63 $178.50 $186.38 $194.25 $202.13 $210.00 5.325 $149.10 $157.09 $165.08 $173.06 $181.05 $189.04 $197.03 $205.01 $213.00 5.4 $151.20 $159.30 $167.40 $175.50 $183.60 $191.70 $199.80 $207.90 $216.00 5.475 $153.30 $161.51 $169.73 $177.94 $186.15 $194.36 $202.58 $210.79 $219.00 I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65

If we treated this as equivalent to ~165k t-30 start then that would likely be ~$6.8M all chains gross for th (crude approx without mtc2/3, but oh well), gives about 35M with 2021-22 formulas. So sure, perhaps that will turn out to be good approximation

Anyway, different eras, not apples to apples, various differences blah blah blah — but fwiw DP1 opened to the 28th biggest adjusted opening weekend at the time. Similar here would be ~197M. DP2 opened to ~52nd rank on adjusted OW, nowadays ~165M.

MCU is pretty much neutral for this, but that’s bad in the counterfactual sense that it could have been a positive if they hadn’t fumbled recently.

Gross wise will be much closer to Thor than BP2 at mtc1, especially at full 24hr mark. Very healthy start but the big wildcard for now is how much the extra 30-40 days will play in to things (my personal guess, not much). Updated outlook for now is previews ~31-37, OW ~160-195. Don’t think much meaningful change/update until t-21 or even really t-14ish

Eh, I mean, it’s kind of splitting hairs. But when you look at other metrics of reception (including legs!) clearly not all As are created equal. Movies like IM1, TWS, Gotg1, thor3, IW, SC, and gotg3 got pretty glowing reception and legged good-great. I would not say they were all riding the border of + or anything (it’s very hard to get the +!) but good reason to believe they were in the top half of As if you could take a peak behind the scenes. Then you have some other As like IM2/3, AoU, AM1, DS1, CM, FFH whatever which clearly were received well compared to a lot of the multiverse saga stinkers but not with the same degree of excitement or ratio of loved:disliked.

You realize a movie’s performance is determined by the DOM total not the ow right? Gotg3 did better than Thor and this won’t match Gotg3 legs so it’s unclear whether it’ll actually do much better in the end. Could still easily end up like B+ -> 145->340 or something — that start is under Thor, so... Or maybe it will get a high A and do like 190-> 500. DPW is doing poorly compared to its potential if the franchise wasn’t in shambles, just like gotg3 did. Not sure which will be more impacted tbh. Was never going to do poorly in an absolute sense 🤷‍♂️

I mean, it is still pretty hurt by all the poorly received movies recently, and it might not even beat Gotg3 by 20% DOM so I dunno about “absolutely demolish”

Plenty of time for things to continue rolling in but basically looking like start will be >AM, <Thor, nearish BP. Using formulas for NWH-BP2 era that would suggest 30Mish, if you want to account for PS distance/length and for brand issues those both probably pull projection up. Basically expecting mid 30s, same as before sales start, for 170ish open Edit: Just for sake of expectations setting, high 20s also plausible if those factors end up not having too much impact or reception on weaker side. 150-180 maybe for now

This’ll perform much worse than if DS2/Thor4/AM3 had been good and if you think otherwise you’re really kidding yourself. 3 years ago the MCU was huge and now it’s pretty washed. That said this could be like 250/650/1.3 kind of run if things were in a good place, so the hurt version can still do okay

Captain America, although when I said that I remembered it as 170/410 and apparently it was really 180/410

No, thinking Civil War nums atm

I am the man in Burbank, confirmed

It will be a fun few days but then quite a long effectively meaningless window

By high double digit I meant OW

Never fear, for I am here

Monkeys and pandas and wurms, oh my

Mid 8s IM, makes sense.

When they make The Fall Guy (2068) will that also be an original? Infinite original glitch unlocked?

Grim would be 22 if it happens

It doesn’t mean that they don’t want any “original well reviewed mainstream movies.” But it does mean that they won’t just show up to an original well reviewed mainstream movie for the sake of original well reviewed mainstream movies. A pretty obvious observation imo but people hoping otherwise is a decades long theme by now

Wasn’t this largely expected back in early April? Anyway figure I’ll quick project som finishes: Dune 285 GxK 199 ( @Brainbug’s club going down to the wire, Apes weekend probably makes or breaks it) KFP 195 GBFE 115

Hype is clearly there. With gotg3 reception I think it would clear 200/500