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Joyous Legion
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Everything posted by Joyous Legion
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Yeah I feel I am being a bit optimistic penciling true FSS at 4.2x Th for DPW. For IO I think it can crack 10x, so just huge huge gap there already being factored in. -
As usual with economic stats, good to be careful with interpreting 2020 or throw it out entirely. In this case, of the 2.2B gross for 2020, ~1.8B is from Jan/feb/March pre-shutdowns, so while I wouldn’t take that number super at face value it’s probably reasonably close to meaningful — if you really dig deep and made a bunch of sophisticated tweaks to further correct it I doubt it would change by more than a few %.
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Hmm, I think you’re drawing a good distinction here, but I want to expand on it a bit further. A mini studio that reliably pumps out 20M grossers on a 2M budget may be very satisfied with their ROI and content to make such movies forever — but it doesn’t contribute enough in raw $ for exhibition to pay for wages rents etc. Not a sustainable model in equilibrium. A megablockbuster flop that does 400M DOM but loses money from bloated costs and poor os performance is a massive boon for theaters while it’s out — but it’s not a sustainable model either because studios will not continue making such movies if they’re too consistent money losers. Only way for things to work out is with movies that have good ROI (so studios will continue making them) and high raw gross (so venues can continue above water on various fixed costs). That was achievable easily enough from 1950-2020, but for now… we’ll see
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
IO sales seem… fine. Not clearly indicating doom — also not clearly forestalling doom. Just going to have to wait til the end to find out exactly to what degree it breaks like a relatively original animation vs a sequel animation in a franchise with a bunch of fans. I can see why people who might have hoped for a more obviously strong start would be nervous getting “not that, but if you wait and see could still work out fine” instead. -
I mean, look -- this is the 10th month in a row with no releases making the Dom top 100 (or even top 115). Now I'm not saying you can't celebrate the solid singles and occasional double for what they are, but that is a pretty dang historically notable drought of actual big hits no matter how much you much want to stick your head in the sand about it Very ironic name btw
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Marvel brand was able to prop up 2021 (1.36B out of 4.5B), 2022 (1.5B out of 7.4B), and helped in 2023 to a degree (1.05B out of 8.95B — the only moderately acceptable market-marvel gross). Even this year might chip in 800+ with all the sony shit, but will really be feeling the diminished status. But one big movie a year and some flopping with 100M total isn’t really enough to be a big part of keeping the lights on like it would have been if they kept quality up and were cranking 1.5-2B/yr
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Tbf I think “don’t open threads on early preview estimates, be they Jat or DHD” Is probably a reasonable policy. But if you’re going to start on one set of highly variable early nums I’d definitely keep allowing the other, and people do seem to like starting the chatter early even if they know nums can change
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
If there are 5 non back row seats that show blocked then wouldn’t it be 0+7+2 sold for 9? -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I would say the story of the past few years (and esp 10 months) is that this is wrong That said I do think BB and IO should do decent-great for other reasons -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Joyous Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Edited, started to write the sentence as Thor reception being worse and then changed the framing in the middle haha