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Joyous Legion
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Everything posted by Joyous Legion
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nu zillund Box Office New Zealand
Joyous Legion replied to Peeta Tong Karanasios's topic in International Box Office
So a 3x multiplier from this weekend would push it just past Shrek2 for 9th all time, yeah? That would be a medium MCU 2nd weekend multi for America, but don’t know about NZ. -
If IW’s weekdays were “normal,” this weekend is very solid relative to last weekend but a tad disspointing compared to the weekdays. With a hypothesis that “IW maxed out capacity on Sat and Sun dramatically more than any previous schooltime opener, artificially inflating its first week,” then this is a great weekend relative both to the weekdays and the OW. As I think about it further, the latter hypothesis seems increasingly likely to be a contributing factor to some degree, so with a actuals a couple million off the current estimate thanks to a strong Sunday I will be 100% contented.
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BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide
Joyous Legion replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Yep, as expected. Since BP only needs 2.5M more they will probably pass within a week of each other though, which is a pretty funny coincidence. -
I know that you’re mostly a troll, but 2B WW is still on. So is passing TFA, really. Despite my three comically exaggerated overreaction posts on the last page, this Sat num could reasonable turn into like a 58% drop, which is totally solid for a movie with 40M of previews in its OW figure and no holidays on the second weekend.
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I’ve seen a lot of reports of people wanting to use MoviePass to repeat view Infinity War, so they buy a ticket for a different movie and then just go into a screen for IW. That would be money which is really being spent to see Infinity War, getting officially counted for other movies instead. So, we should probably mentally shift about 10% of every other movie’s gross this weekend to Infinity War, just to be safe
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RIP the back to back 700M dream. And the 3 consecutive entries in all-time adjusted dream. Will we have to settle for back to back MCU releases in the DOM top 4 now ? Top 5? Will Avengers 4 even be able to pass TFA once it gets the DH2 bump? With a 2nd Saturday like this I’m even starting to fear the MCU’s ability to make more domestically in 2018 than JW made WW
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It could beat AoU with a 60M weekend, but that would still be atrocious and highly dissapointing. As our information changes, what numbers are or aren’t dissapointing changes as well. In May 2015, a 300 total for JW wouldn’t be disspointing at all. After June 15, it would be one of the most dissapointing results in history.
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Yeah, certainly some of that can happen. But it seems like I see a lot more of : A hopes for a number that is possible, but not likely — maybe like a 90th percentile quality number We get a number that is pretty reasonable, maybe like 40th percentile A is disspointmed. A says “I’m disspointed with this number, even though it isn’t an objective failure.” B says “This number isn’t bad, your number was completely unrealistic and impossible.” A says “no, it was optimistic but possible.” B says “no it was totally silly, just look at what the number actually end up being (doesn’t follow, btw). You’re silly for being disspointed and we’re going to laugh at for it.” I just don’t understand what is motivating B in an exchange like this. Let people be optimistic when they want to (within reason), and let them be disspointed more often as a result. That’s their business.
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I know I’m newish here, but it’s pretty weird to me how many people come out of the woodwork to tell people that they shouldn’t be disappointed by numbers that disspoint them. Seems like a serious failure to distinguish between objective/macro performance and subjective/micro level performance. If BP comes in with 2.5 this weekend and someone says “oh, that’s disspointing, I was hoping for 3M” then telling them “BP isn’t a disappointment, it made ~700M” is missing the point pretty hard (even though it is true).